Alexis Calatayud's bipartisan pitch meets Richard Lamondin's call for change in tight Senate District 38 race

Republican state Sen. Alexis Calatayud is asking south Miami-Dade voters to return her to Tallahassee on the strength of a record she describes as bipartisan, while Democrat Richard Lamondin, a Miami entrepreneur making his first run for office, argues the district needs a different kind of senator. Their contest for Florida Senate District 38, decided on Tuesday's ballot, has become one of the most closely watched legislative races in the state, and the most recent public poll shows it tied.

An October survey by Impact Research, a Democratic polling firm, found Calatayud and Lamondin each at 40 percent, with no-party candidate Jeffrey "Doc" Solomon at 4 percent and 15 percent undecided, according to Florida Politics. The same firm had Calatayud ahead 43 percent to 36 percent in July. Because the poll was conducted by a Democratic-aligned firm, its results should be read with that in mind.

The district

Senate District 38 covers a broad stretch of south Miami-Dade County, including Cutler Bay, Palmetto Bay, Pinecrest, South Miami, parts of Homestead and Coral Gables, and the unincorporated communities of Goulds, Kendall, Perrine, Redland, Sunset and Westchester. It overlaps much of the territory in the 27th Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez on the same ballot.

The seat has changed hands before. Democrat Annette Taddeo held it until she left to run for Congress in 2022. That year, Calatayud, then a political newcomer, defeated Democrat Janelle Perez 54 percent to 46 percent. Florida Politics, citing the Impact Research survey, reported that President Donald Trump carried the district by 10 points in 2024 but is now 14 points underwater there in voters' approval, a shift Democrats see as an opening.

Calatayud's record

Calatayud, a Miami native and Florida International University graduate, worked as a legislative aide in the Florida House and as director of legislative affairs at the Florida Department of Education before her election. In the Senate she is best known as the sponsor of the 2023 Live Local Act, Senate Bill 102, the affordable housing law championed by then-Senate President Kathleen Passidomo. The measure passed the Senate 40-0 and the House 103-6 and was signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in March 2023. It created tax incentives for workforce housing and allowed affordable apartments to be built on commercial and industrial land, in some cases overriding local zoning.

Her campaign has stressed instances of independence from her party. In March 2023 she was the lone Republican on a Senate committee to vote against the six-week abortion ban, saying she had promised her district she would support the state's then-existing 15-week limit. Calatayud's allies point to that vote and her housing work as evidence she can attract Democratic and independent voters in a closely divided district.

Lamondin's push for change

Lamondin co-founded ecofi, an environmental services company, with his brother. His campaign says the business started with the brothers installing toilets and grew into one of the country's largest sustainability firms, creating hundreds of jobs in Miami. He initially ran for Congress in the 27th District, then switched to the state Senate race in April. At the time he said, "Florida has everything it needs to give people here a fair shot," adding, "What it's missing is leadership with real skin in the game," according to WLRN.

He has campaigned on lowering everyday costs, overhauling state government and confronting what he calls corruption in Tallahassee. Lamondin has argued that Calatayud's "yes" vote on renaming Palm Beach International Airport after Trump and her support for what he calls insurance bailouts show she is out of touch with the district, and his latest ad accuses her of siding with developers over residents. The Live Local Act has become a central issue: Lamondin wants changes to the law that its supporters say has unlocked housing and that critics in some South Florida communities say has allowed oversized projects without local input.

Republican advertising has sought to brand Lamondin a Democratic Socialist, a label he has rejected in a response ad, and the Miami-Dade Democratic Party has called the attacks false. Lamondin's campaign has also said Calatayud declined to debate him. He has been endorsed by state Sen. Shevrin Jones, by Rodriguez, his former congressional primary rival, and by a series of local Democratic officials. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried called the district "one of our top seats to flip this year."

The money

Calatayud holds a significant financial edge. Reports on state campaign filings show how the race has been funded:

Florida Politics has reported that Calatayud has raised nearly $3.3 million since winning the seat in 2022, with much of her money coming from corporate interests and political committees, while Lamondin's contributions have come mainly from individuals. Lamondin's campaign launched a six-figure television and digital advertising effort in September, beginning with a 30-second spot about his business background.

What's at stake

Republicans hold a commanding majority in the 40-member Florida Senate, so the outcome in District 38 will not change control of the chamber. But for Democrats, who have lost ground in Miami-Dade over the past several cycles, flipping a Senate seat in the county would be a signal that their recent losses with Hispanic voters can be reversed. For Republicans, holding it would reinforce the party's gains in a county that voted for Trump in 2024.

What's next

Polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday and close at 7 p.m. Voters who did not vote early or by mail must cast ballots at their assigned precincts. The Miami-Dade County Supervisor of Elections will post results after the polls close, beginning with early and mail ballots. The winner will serve a four-year term and take part in the 2027 legislative session, where housing costs, property insurance and property taxes are expected to dominate the agenda.