Baker Mayfield Set to Return as 1-5 Buccaneers Visit NFC South-Leading Panthers

Baker Mayfield expects to be back under center Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to salvage a sinking season in Charlotte. The Bucs (1-5), last in the NFC South, visit the division-leading Carolina Panthers (3-2) at 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 25, at Bank of America Stadium, on FOX, with their starting quarterback set to return from a dislocated right thumb that has sidelined him for three games.

The stakes for Tampa Bay are plain. A loss would drop the Bucs to 1-6 and three and a half games behind Carolina in the division. A win, with Mayfield healthy, would pull them within a game and a half of first place before a home game against Atlanta on Nov. 1.

Mayfield's thumb and the glove

Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand in a Sept. 27 loss to Minnesota, when his hand struck Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman on a desperation fourth-down pass that was intercepted late in the fourth quarter of a 23-16 defeat, according to The Associated Press report carried by WUSF. He said the dislocation caused ligament damage but did not require surgery.

He returned to practice this week wearing a protective white glove designed to support the joint and plans to wear it Sunday. The thumb is "feeling slowly better and better," he told reporters, according to the AP. On Thursday he said it had reached the point where it is strong enough to play, adding that gripping and throwing feel fine and that impact was his main concern. Mayfield had hoped to return a week earlier against Pittsburgh but was not ready.

The Buccaneers' team site reported that Mayfield was a full participant in practice Wednesday and Thursday, with his availability depending on how the hand responded through Friday. ESPN's injury listing showed him as questionable. Coach Todd Bowles said Mayfield was trending in the right direction and that he was encouraged to see his quarterback "do the things we wanted him to do," the AP reported.

Before the injury, Mayfield had not missed a start since joining Tampa Bay in 2023. He signed a three-year, $165 million extension before this season that runs through 2029. His 2026 numbers have been modest: 61 of 96 passing for 615 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in three starts, along with three lost fumbles and 13 sacks taken, according to the AP and ESPN. The Bucs went 0-3 in those games, their worst start since 2014.

Jalon Daniels kept the Bucs close

Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels started the last three games and went 1-2. He led a 24-16 win at Dallas on Oct. 8 for Tampa Bay's only victory, and across his three starts threw three touchdown passes and five interceptions with a 63.4 passer rating, according to the AP.

The most recent of those starts was the most painful. On Oct. 18 at Raymond James Stadium, the Bucs led Pittsburgh 13-3 at halftime and 16-3 entering the fourth quarter before Aaron Rodgers led four fourth-quarter scoring drives and won it 26-19 with a 7-yard touchdown pass to Germie Bernard in overtime. Daniels completed 22 of 43 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown, and his two fourth-quarter interceptions both led to Steelers field goals. Chase McLaughlin, perfect at 14 of 14 on field goals this season, kicked four, including a 53-yarder that forced overtime.

"We've got to be able to finish games," Bowles said afterward, according to the AP. All five of Tampa Bay's losses have come by seven points or fewer.

The NFC South picture

Tampa Bay won four straight NFC South titles from 2021 through 2024, but Carolina took the division last season despite a losing record, and the Bucs have lost 12 of their last 15 games, according to the AP. Carolina leads the division at 3-2 after a 25-14 win at Philadelphia on Oct. 18. Atlanta and New Orleans are both 2-4, and Tampa Bay sits last at 1-5, according to ESPN's standings.

Plenty of division football remains. After Sunday, the Bucs still play five NFC South games, three of them at Raymond James Stadium: Atlanta on Nov. 1, a Monday night rematch with Carolina on Nov. 30 and New Orleans on Dec. 20. They close the season with trips to Atlanta and New Orleans.

Bryce Young and a high-scoring Carolina offense

Carolina's resurgence runs through quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, who will make his 50th career start Sunday. Young leads the NFL in passing yards per game, according to the AP, and has completed 121 of 201 passes for 1,549 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. After a 4-21 start to his career as a starter, he is 13-11 since. He is 1-5 as a starter against Tampa Bay.

The Panthers' 146 points through five games are a franchise record, according to the AP. Running back Chuba Hubbard has 426 rushing yards, and receiver Tetairoa McMillan leads the team with 32 catches for 471 yards. By the Buccaneers' figures, Carolina ranks second in total offense and fourth in scoring, while Tampa Bay ranks 24th in total offense and 30th in passing.

That sets up a clear matchup. Tampa Bay's defense ranks fourth in yards allowed and second against the run, giving up 75.5 rushing yards per game behind nose tackle Vita Vea, but 20th against the pass. Carolina's defense ranks 27th against the run, which favors Bucs running back Bucky Irving, who leads Tampa Bay with 452 rushing yards on 96 carries.

Familiar faces on the other sideline

The game is full of connections. Panthers coach Dave Canales was Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator in 2023, the season credited with reviving Mayfield's career, when he threw for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns and the Bucs won the division. Canales told reporters he expects Mayfield to play, describing him as tough and a great teammate, the AP reported. Mayfield played for Carolina in 2022 before being waived and is 6-1 as a starter against his former team, with five of those wins coming as a Buccaneer.

Bucs defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson spent the previous two seasons in Carolina, and linebacker Christian Rozeboom, a Panthers starter last season, was placed on injured reserve this week with a finger injury and will miss at least four games, the team announced. Tampa Bay also activated receiver David Sills from injured reserve.

Injury report and odds

Receiver Emeka Egbuka, the Bucs' leading receiver with 28 catches for 240 yards, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday because of a concussion and a foot issue, according to buccaneers.com. Tackle Luke Goedeke (calf) also missed both days, and veteran receiver Chris Godwin Jr. sat out Thursday for rest. Cornerback Zyon McCollum and Irving were limited with illness, and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was limited with a rib injury.

Carolina has its own issues. Outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) has been ruled out, the AP reported, and starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are on injured reserve, according to the Bucs' preview. Carolina is favored by 3 to 3.5 points, with an over/under of 44.5. The Panthers will also honor Hall of Fame linebacker Luke Kuechly at halftime.

What's next

Tampa Bay has won five of the last six meetings with Carolina, including a 16-13 win on Jan. 3 in Tampa, though the Panthers lead the all-time series 26-25. After Sunday, the Bucs host Atlanta on Nov. 1 and visit Chicago on Sunday night, Nov. 8. With 11 games left after Charlotte, Mayfield's return gives Tampa Bay its best chance to turn close losses into wins, and the margin for more of them is nearly gone.