DeSantis' map was built to flip four Florida House seats to the GOP. Here's where the races stand

Florida's new congressional map was built to turn a 20-8 Republican advantage in the state's U.S. House delegation into as much as 24-4. With early voting under way and Election Day on Nov. 3, the latest race ratings suggest Republicans are favored to pick up at least one of the four targeted seats, while two others are rated toss-ups and the fourth leans toward the Democrat who moved there to defend it.

The outcome matters well beyond Florida. Republicans are defending a narrow House majority, and the map Gov. Ron DeSantis' office drew this spring was one of several mid-decade redistricting efforts across the country aimed at shifting control of the chamber. Every one of Florida's 28 House seats is on the ballot.

How the map was drawn

DeSantis called a special session for late April and proposed a map on April 27 that targeted four Democratic incumbents: Kathy Castor of Tampa, Darren Soto of the Orlando area, Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach and Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Broward County. The Legislature passed it on April 29, the House by an 83-28 vote and the Senate 21-17, with four Republican senators voting no. DeSantis signed it May 4. A senior DeSantis staffer testified during the session that he drew the districts and looked at partisan data.

The map makes significant changes to 21 of the state's 28 districts, WUSF reported at the time. The administration leaned on the U.S. Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, issued the same day the Legislature voted, which made it harder to require districts drawn to protect minority voting power. DeSantis' general counsel also argued that the state's Fair Districts amendment, approved by voters in 2010 to bar maps drawn to favor a party or incumbent, was unenforceable.

Voting rights groups, led by Equal Ground Education Group, sued in Leon County within hours of the signing. Circuit Judge Joshua Hawkes refused on May 26 to block the map for this year's election, and on June 10 the Florida Supreme Court declined to step in, with Justice Jorge Labarga dissenting. With the June 12 qualifying deadline past, the map is in use for 2026 while the underlying lawsuit continues.

The four targeted seats

The governor's office projected Republican gains in Districts 9, 14, 22 and 25. Here is where those races stand, based on ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball as of mid-October:

District 9: Soto's seat was the most radically redrawn of any in the state, according to WUSF and the Florida Phoenix, moving from a district Kamala Harris carried in 2024 to one Donald Trump would have won by nearly 18 points. All three forecasters rate it Likely Republican, making it the GOP's clearest pickup opportunity. Soto faces Dan Green, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense.

District 14: Castor, a Tampa Democrat in Congress since 2007, faces former Republican state Rep. Mike Beltran in a race all three forecasters call a toss-up. The Florida Press has covered that race in detail separately.

District 22: Frankel, who held the Palm Beach County seat for 14 years, chose instead to run in the neighboring 23rd District, which Moskowitz vacated. That left an open race between Democrat Pia Dandiya, a 39-year-old Palm Beach native and former founding principal of a Harlem public school, and Republican Casey Askar, a 57-year-old Naples businessman who was born in Iraq and served in the Marines. The district moved from Harris by 5 points to Trump by 10 under the new lines, and Republicans hold about an 8-point registration edge, according to the Florida Phoenix. But Democratic data analyst Matt Isbell notes the district contains a large bloc of moderate voters and backed the 2024 abortion-rights amendment by about 20 points.

"Unequivocally, I am not a socialist," Dandiya told the Phoenix, pushing back on Republican attacks. Askar, who won a seven-way GOP primary with 31% of the vote and has Trump's endorsement, described his opponent as running on a "DEI-agenda." A super PAC tied to Trump has spent more than $3.76 million against Dandiya, while the Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund and House Majority PAC announced a $10 million campaign covering her race and seven others nationally.

District 25: The redraw turned Wasserman Schultz's old Broward-based seat more Republican. She moved to the new District 20, a solidly Democratic seat drawn entirely within Broward, while Moskowitz left the 23rd District to run in the 25th against former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer. Cook and Sabato rate the race Lean Democratic. In a sign of shifting expectations, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top Republican House super PAC, canceled $6 million in planned TV spending in the market this week, the Phoenix reported. The Florida Press has covered that race separately.

Other seats to watch

The targeted seats are not the only competitive ones. Several districts already held by Republicans are drawing attention:

• District 13 (Pinellas): Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna faces Democrat Leela Gray, a retired Army brigadier general. Cook and Inside Elections rate it Lean Republican.
• District 27 (Miami-Dade): Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodríguez, a longtime South Florida television journalist. All three forecasters rate it Lean Republican.
• District 7 (Central Florida): Republican Rep. Cory Mills lost his primary. Republican Ryan Elijah faces Democrat Bale Dalton in a race rated Likely Republican.

Miami-Dade's District 26, where Republican Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart faces Democrat Nicole Locklin, is rated solidly Republican; The Florida Press has covered that contest separately. Several other seats are open because of retirements, including those of Republicans Neal Dunn, Vern Buchanan and Byron Donalds, who is running for governor, and Democrat Frederica Wilson in Miami-Dade, where County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert is the Democratic nominee. Those seats are not rated competitive.

What the numbers suggest

If the current ratings held, Republicans would gain District 9, the two toss-ups in Tampa and Palm Beach County would decide whether the delegation ends up at 21-7, 22-6 or 23-5, and District 25 would remain the Democrats' best defense. A clean sweep of all four targets, the 24-4 result the map was built to deliver, would require Republicans to beat Moskowitz, a well-funded incumbent with a profile as a moderate.

The cautionary note for Republicans is that Florida's new districts were drawn on 2024 presidential results, a strong year for the party in the state. Midterm elections under a sitting president have historically favored the opposing party, and both the 14th and 22nd districts include blocs of moderate suburban voters. Democrats, for their part, have struggled in Florida in recent cycles, and Republicans hold a statewide voter registration advantage of more than 1 million.

What's next

Early voting began as early as Oct. 19 in some counties and is required in all 67 counties from Oct. 24 through Oct. 31, according to the Florida Department of State. Mail ballots must reach county supervisors of elections by 7 p.m. on Nov. 3 to count.

Whatever happens on Election Day, the map's long-term future remains in the courts. The Fair Districts lawsuit is still pending in Leon County, and a ruling against the state could force new lines before the 2028 election.