UNF Poll: Donalds Leads Jolly by 2, Moody Leads Nixon by 4 as Florida's Top Races Tighten

Republicans Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody still lead Florida's two marquee statewide races, but a new University of North Florida poll released Wednesday, Oct. 21, shows both contests tightening with less than two weeks left before the Nov. 3 general election. Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 49% to 47% in the race for governor, and Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 49% to 45% in the U.S. Senate race, according to UNF's Public Opinion Research Lab.

Both margins are smaller than in the lab's July survey, and both rest on a Republican registration edge that is being offset by independents breaking toward the Democrats. The governor's race is within the poll's margin of error.

What the poll found

The Public Opinion Research Lab, known as PORL, interviewed 1,471 likely midterm voters by telephone, in English and Spanish, from Oct. 12 to Oct. 19. Results were weighted to reflect Florida's electorate, and the overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, with larger margins for smaller subgroups, News4JAX reported.

In the governor's race, 4% of respondents were undecided. In the Senate race, 5% were undecided. Donalds' 2-point lead is inside the margin of error; Moody's 4-point lead is slightly outside it.

Sean Freeder, a UNF political science professor and the lab's faculty director, said the numbers point to a real contest. "Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race," he said, according to WUSF.

How the races have moved since July

The lab's previous statewide survey, conducted July 8 to 17 among 848 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points, showed wider Republican leads. The comparison below uses the toplines reported for each poll.

Both Democrats gained ground as undecided voters made up their minds. Jolly picked up 6 points between the two surveys, while Donalds added 3. Nixon, who in July was unknown to most voters and trailed far behind in fundraising, gained 3 points while Moody slipped by 1.

Independents lean Democratic

The clearest warning sign for Republicans is among voters with no party affiliation. Jolly leads Donalds among independents by 16 points, and Nixon leads Moody among them by 15 points, the poll found.

Jolly also draws more crossover support than his opponent: 11% of registered Republicans said they back him, while Donalds gets 5% of Democrats, according to WUSF. Freeder said the outcome will depend on turnout among the two major parties. In his words, "both Donalds and Moody's success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats."

Republicans hold a substantial voter registration advantage in Florida, which is why the Republican candidates can lead overall while losing independents.

The poll also tested Donalds' outreach to Black voters, a group his campaign has courted. Donalds received 10% support among Black voters, and Moody received 9%. "Donalds' attempt to win over Black voters does not appear to be working," Freeder said, according to WUSF.

An enthusiasm edge for Republicans

The Republicans hold an advantage in the intensity of their support. Seventy-seven percent of Donalds' supporters said they strongly back him, compared with 67% of Jolly's supporters. In the Senate race, 79% of Moody's voters strongly support her, compared with 75% of Nixon's.

Freeder described that as "a small but real enthusiasm gap" favoring both Republicans. He has also noted that polls cannot predict how many people will actually vote, and that turnout will be decisive in both races, News4JAX reported.

Who voters trust on the issues

The poll asked which candidate for governor voters trust more on three issues that have dominated the campaign. Results were close on each.

Some voters split from their own candidate on individual issues: 7% of Jolly supporters said they trust Donalds more on property insurance, and 7% of Donalds supporters trust Jolly more on data centers, according to News4JAX. Data centers have become a live issue in local politics this fall, with several counties weighing limits on large facilities.

Testing the Senate attack lines

The pollsters also measured the two central lines of attack in the Senate race. Republicans have highlighted Nixon's ties to the Democratic Socialists of America; 25% of respondents said that message made them less likely to vote for her, 12% said more likely and 55% said it made no difference.

Democrats have pressed Moody over the Hope Florida grand jury report, which concerned a $10 million Medicaid settlement payment that a Leon County grand jury found was misappropriated, though it brought no charges. Thirty percent said that messaging made them less likely to vote for Moody, 9% said more likely and 53% said no difference. Among independents, 38% said the Hope Florida message made them less likely to support Moody. Freeder said independents appear more concerned about Moody's ties to Hope Florida than about Nixon's ties to socialism, WUSF reported.

Freeder also pointed to President Donald Trump's approval rating, which he described as near historic lows, as part of the national backdrop for Florida's midterms. The published coverage did not include a specific approval figure.

Amendment 3 and the other ballot questions

Amendment 3 was the only constitutional amendment the October poll tested, according to WLRN. The homestead property tax measure drew 50% support, with 30% opposed and 14% undecided. Amendments need 60% approval to pass, so the measure would need most of the undecided voters to break its way. Freeder called that a challenging but possible outcome.

The poll also asked a broader question about priorities: 61% of respondents said protecting the environment should come first even if it slows economic growth, while 26% said economic growth should come first even if the environment suffers somewhat. Democrats (78%) and independents (62%) were most likely to choose the environment, compared with 48% of Republicans. Voters who moved to Florida within the past 10 years leaned more toward economic growth than longtime residents, News4JAX reported.

What's next

Early voting is already under way in many counties and must be offered statewide from Oct. 24 through Oct. 31, with Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The governor's seat is open because Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited. Moody, appointed to the Senate in 2025 to fill the seat Marco Rubio vacated to become secretary of state, is running to finish the remainder of that term.

With both races inside or near the margin of error, the final stretch will turn on whether Republicans' registration advantage and enthusiasm edge outweigh the Democrats' strength among independents, and on how the small pool of undecided voters breaks.