Florida votes on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026 in a special election for the U.S. Senate seat Marco Rubio left to become secretary of state. Sen. Ashley Moody, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed in January 2025, is the Republican nominee; state Rep. Angie Nixon is the Democrat; Neil J. Gillespie is running with No Party Affiliation.
Of the 10 public polls since the Aug. 18 primary listed below, Moody led in 8, Nixon led in none and 2 were within half a point. The median margin is Moody +5.1. Moody polled between 45.2% and 52%; Nixon between 40% and 47%. Polls differ in who they count as a likely voter and in how they handle undecided voters, so read the table, not one number.
Every public poll since the primary
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Moody | Nixon | Other | Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDW Communications and EDGE Communications | Oct. 4-10 | 2,351 likely voters, ±2.8 | 47.6% | 42.4% | - | 10% | Moody +5.2 |
| Stetson University CPOR | Oct. 1-9 | 716 likely voters, ±4.2 Includes leaners. | 52% | 41% | 2% | 6% | Moody +11 |
| St. Pete Polls | Oct. 5-7 | 836 likely voters, ±3.4 For FloridaPolitics.com | 46.8% | 44.9% | 2.3% | 6% | Moody +1.9 |
| YouGov | Sept. 28-Oct. 5 | 3,813 likely voters, ±2.7 | 49% | 44% | 1% | 5% | Moody +5 |
| Targoz Market Research | Sept. 28-Oct. 4 | 847 likely voters For James Madison Institute | 52% | 42% | 2% | 4% | Moody +10 |
| Mason-Dixon | Sept. 28-Oct. 1 | 625 registered voters, ±4 For NBC 6 / Telemundo Station Group Other is Neil Gillespie (NPA), listed by name. | 50% | 40% | 2% | 8% | Moody +10 |
| Change Research | Sept. 25-27 | 1,063 likely voters, ±2.8 For Freedom Project USA | 48% | 47% | - | 5% | Moody +1 |
| Stetson University CPOR | Sept. 14-21 | Likely voters from 830 adults, ±4.3 Includes leaners. | 51% | 40% | 3% | 5% | Moody +11 |
| St. Pete Polls | Sept. 15-17 | 913 likely voters, ±3.2 For FloridaPolitics.com | 45.2% | 44.8% | 2.9% | 7.1% | Tie |
| Change Research | Sept. 7-9 | 1,107 likely voters, ±2.8 For Freedom Project USA | 47% | 47% | - | 5% | Tie |
Who is on the ballot
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ashley Moody (incumbent) | Republican |
| Angie Nixon | Democratic |
| Neil J. Gillespie | No Party Affiliation |
Key dates for voters
| Date | What happens | Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Mon., Oct. 19 | Earliest day a county may open early voting (the 15th day before the election). Many large counties start here; check your county Supervisor of Elections. | Fla. Stat. 101.657 |
| Thu., Oct. 22, 5 p.m. | Deadline to request a vote-by-mail ballot be mailed to you (the 12th day before the election). | Fla. Stat. 101.62 |
| Sat., Oct. 24 to Sat., Oct. 31 | Early voting every county must offer (the 10th through the 3rd day before the election), 8 to 12 hours a day. Counties may also open Sun., Nov. 1. | Fla. Stat. 101.657 |
| Tue., Nov. 3, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. | Election Day. Vote-by-mail ballots must reach your Supervisor of Elections by 7 p.m.; a postmark is not enough. | Fla. Stat. 101.67 |
The governor's race is on the same ballot: see the Florida governor race page.