The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30. Florida sits at the center of the basin and takes more named-storm landfalls than any other U.S. state. The National Hurricane Center, headquartered in Miami, issues every U.S. tropical bulletin from here. This guide aggregates the major seasonal forecasts, gives a county-level path for looking up your evacuation zone, and lays out a supply checklist drawn from FDEM and FEMA guidance.
2026 seasonal forecasts: what the major models say
| Forecaster | Named storms | Hurricanes | Major hurricanes (Cat 3+) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA Climate Prediction Center | Pending late May release | — | — |
| Colorado State University (April 2026) | 13 | 6 | 2 |
| University of Arizona (April 2026) | 20 | 9 | 4 |
| Tropical Storm Risk, UK (December 2025) | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| 30-year historical average (1991–2020) | 14 | 7 | 3 |
Month-by-month Florida risk timeline
Gulf of Mexico systems; early-season weak.
Atlantic main development quiet.
Cape Verde season starts. Tracks toward FL begin.
Peak. Most major FL landfalls historically.
Gulf systems target FL west coast.
Late-season Caribbean activity tapers off.
Know your evacuation zone before a storm is in the cone
Florida evacuation zones are not generic and they are not optional. They are tied to elevation and storm surge modeling, and your county’s emergency management office uses them to call mandatory evacuations one zone at a time, starting with the most vulnerable.
| Zone | What it means | When it gets ordered |
|---|---|---|
| Zone A | Most vulnerable. Direct storm surge, lowest elevation, often barrier islands and inlets. | Tropical Storm Watch with Cat 1+ landfall expected within 48–60 hours. |
| Zone B | High-risk surge zone, often the next ring inland from Zone A. | Cat 2+ landfall expected within 36–48 hours. |
| Zone C | Moderate-risk surge zone, often along intracoastal waterways. | Cat 3+ landfall expected within 36 hours. |
| Zone D | Lower-risk surge zone, inland but in low-lying areas. | Cat 4+ landfall expected, or major regional flooding forecast. |
| Zone E | Lowest-risk evacuation zone, generally evacuated only for catastrophic storms. | Cat 5 landfall expected with regional damage modeling. |
| Outside any zone | Higher elevation, modeled to stay above expected surge for any modeled storm. | Local officials may still issue voluntary evacuations for mobile homes and structures pre-1992 build code. |
Verified Florida hurricane supply checklist
Drawn from Florida Division of Emergency Management and FEMA guidance. Aim to be supplied for a minimum of seven days. The first week after a major storm is when grocery stores, gas stations, ATMs, and pharmacies are typically still without power, restocking, or operating on limited hours.
Water, food, medicine
- One gallon of water per person per day, seven days minimum
- Non-perishable food for seven days (canned, dried, pouched)
- Manual can opener (not electric)
- Two weeks of prescription medication, plus a printed list of dosages
- First aid kit with extra gauze and bandages
- Pet food and water, seven days
Power and communication
- Battery-powered or hand-crank NOAA weather radio
- Flashlights, one per person, plus spare batteries
- Phone backup batteries, fully charged before landfall
- Portable generator with fuel, run outdoors only
- Whistle (signaling if trapped)
- Phone numbers written on paper (cell towers may fail)
Documents and money
- Insurance policies in a waterproof bag
- Driver license, passport, birth certificates
- Photos of vehicles and home interior (before-storm)
- Cash in small denominations (ATMs may be offline)
- List of emergency contacts and policy claim numbers
Property protection
- Hurricane shutters or pre-cut plywood for windows
- Sandbags for ground-floor flood entry points
- Tarps and rope for roof patching after storm
- Tools: hammer, nails, screws, work gloves
- Fill bathtub with water for sanitation use
- Charge all power tools and back-up batteries
Active storm monitoring
When the National Hurricane Center is tracking a system that could affect Florida, watch four official sources and ignore everything else. Social-media tracking maps and amateur forecast accounts routinely amplify outlier model runs that the NHC has already discounted. The official sources are the same the emergency managers use:
- NHC public advisories. Issued every six hours for active storms (every three hours for storms threatening landfall). These set the cone, intensity, and watches and warnings.
- NWS local forecast office. Each Florida region (Miami, Tampa Bay, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Key West, Melbourne, Mobile/Pensacola) issues county-level forecasts including surge, rainfall totals, and tornado risk.
- Florida Division of Emergency Management. Statewide coordination, evacuation decisions, shelter openings, and post-storm declarations.
- Your county emergency management office. Local mandatory evacuation orders are issued by the county, not the NHC. Sign up for your county’s alert system before season starts.
After the storm
- Wait for the all-clear before going outside. The eye of a hurricane brings calm conditions that are deceiving; the back wall can be the most damaging.
- Document everything before cleaning up. Take photos of every damaged room, exterior elevation, fence, and yard before you move debris. Insurance claims depend on pre-cleanup documentation.
- Contact your insurance carrier within 72 hours. File the claim, get the claim number, and ask for the adjuster contact. Catastrophe adjusters are often deployed from out of state and rotate quickly.
- Avoid post-storm contractor scams. Florida’s post-storm contractor fraud rate is among the highest in the country. Verify licenses at MyFloridaLicense.com before signing anything. Never sign over insurance proceeds via Assignment of Benefits without legal review.
- FEMA assistance. If a federal disaster declaration is issued for your county, apply for FEMA Individual Assistance at DisasterAssistance.gov. Keep receipts for any emergency expenses, including hotel, fuel, food, and protective tarps.