Boca Raton's GEO Group posts record quarter on ICE contracts as Democrats prepare to take over Congress

The GEO Group, the Boca Raton company that is one of the two major private detention companies that contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, reported the biggest quarter in its history on Nov. 5 and raised its full-year profit outlook, even as voters handed Democrats control of Congress with promises to rein in ICE.

GEO said third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 12 percent to $761.1 million, up from $682.3 million a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 21 percent to $145.3 million. The company lifted its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $568 million to $573 million. The results landed two days after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, and they put a Florida-based company at the center of the coming fight over how much money ICE will have to keep expanding detention.

What GEO reported

According to the company's earnings release, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an exhibit to a Form 8-K, GEO posted third-quarter net income attributable to GEO operations of $49.2 million, or 37 cents per diluted share. That compares with $173.9 million, or $1.24 per share, in the third quarter of 2025, a figure the company said was inflated by a gain on asset sales and other one-time items.

Stripping out $3.5 million in pre-tax costs tied to litigation, start-up expenses, transaction fees and restructuring, GEO reported adjusted net income of $51.8 million, or 39 cents per share, a 48 percent increase from $35.0 million a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2026, revenue reached $2.2 billion, up 14 percent, and adjusted EBITDA totaled $418.7 million, up 24 percent.

George C. Zoley, GEO's founder, chairman and chief executive, said in the release that the third quarter "marked a record-breaking quarter for GEO, with the highest level of quarterly revenues and adjusted EBITDA ever reported in our company's history." He said the company had entered into new or expanded contracts in 2026 worth roughly $500 million in incremental annual revenue.

The quarter was not a clean sweep. Revenue came in below Wall Street's forecasts, according to financial news coverage of the report, and the shares fell after the release. The company's quarterly filing shows that the electronic monitoring business, which supervises immigrants outside detention through the federal Intensive Supervision and Appearance Program, saw average participant counts decline, partly offset by a shift toward pricier ankle monitors and a new skip tracing contract.

A raised outlook for the full year

GEO raised nearly every line of its 2026 forecast. The company now expects full-year revenue of $2.975 billion to $3.025 billion and adjusted net income of $185 million to $190 million, or $1.40 to $1.44 per diluted share. Net income attributable to GEO operations is now projected at $726.3 million to $730.5 million, a jump driven by a one-time gain on the sale of its Adelanto, California, detention complex in the fourth quarter.

For the fourth quarter alone, GEO projected revenue of $777 million to $827 million and adjusted EBITDA of $149 million to $154 million.

New ICE contracts and the Adelanto sale

Much of the growth comes from ICE reopening facilities that had sat idle. GEO's release lists the new and renewed immigration contracts below, and says ICE will reimburse the company for the capital spending needed to reactivate the idle sites.

GEO expects Big Horn and Rivers to be fully activated by the end of 2026 and Big Spring by the end of the first quarter of 2027. On the company's earnings call, executives said total ICE beds under contract would rise to roughly 33,000 at 29 facilities once those sites are running, according to a published transcript of the call, up from about 29,500 beds the company cited in August.

The quarter also marked a shift in how the federal government is acquiring detention space. On Oct. 2, GEO completed the sale of its Adelanto West and Adelanto East ICE processing centers and the Desert View Annex in Adelanto, California, to the United States, through the Department of Homeland Security, for $950 million. GEO said it netted about $705 million after taxes and fees and will keep running the complex under its existing ICE contract, which runs through Dec. 19, 2034. The company said it is in talks to sell other company-owned facilities to ICE but has no definitive agreement or timeline.

GEO used the Adelanto proceeds on Oct. 15 to redeem $650 million in 8.625 percent senior secured notes, leaving $625 million in corporate debt. The board earlier expanded its stock buyback authorization by $750 million, to $1.25 billion, and the company said that as of Nov. 5 it had repurchased about 10.1 million shares for roughly $177 million. Zoley said in the release that GEO believes its stock "continues to be significantly undervalued."

The Florida connection

GEO is a Florida corporation headquartered at 4955 Technology Way in Boca Raton. It reports owning or providing services at 97 facilities with about 76,000 beds worldwide, including idle sites and projects under development, and a workforce of up to about 20,000 employees.

In Broward County, GEO runs the Broward Transitional Center in Pompano Beach, an ICE detention facility that has drawn scrutiny as the national detention population has grown. A 2025 analysis by The Tributary, published by WLRN, found that at least 88 calls were made to 911 from inside the center from January through June of that year, exactly double the number from the same months a year earlier, and that more than 40 percent of the calls involved medical emergencies. GEO did not respond to that outlet's questions about medical staffing.

GEO's quarterly report to the SEC also ties part of its 2026 revenue growth to a managed-only contract at what it calls the North Florida Detention Center, alongside new contracts at company-owned facilities including Delaney Hall, North Lake and D. Ray James. Revenue in GEO's U.S. secure services segment rose by $60.4 million in the third quarter compared with a year earlier.

Democrats take Congress, but ICE keeps the money

The election results raise a political question for GEO's business. Immigration was among the top issues for voters, according to exit polling cited by NPR, and Democrats will now hold oversight power over ICE. Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., who is likely to chair the House Homeland Security Committee, told NPR he wants to legally require federal immigration agents to wear body cameras and ban them from wearing face coverings. Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., set to chair the House Oversight Committee, has promised to look into ICE accountability.

The money, however, is already appropriated. According to NPR's reporting, Congress awarded ICE and Customs and Border Protection around $240 billion in 2025 and 2026, enough to run the administration's mass deportation operation for the remainder of President Donald Trump's term. Congress could try to claw that money back, but Trump would have to sign any such bill, and he has said he would welcome the nickname "Mr. Veto." Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin posted after the election that "Deportations will continue."

NPR reported that GEO and its main rival, CoreCivic, both held investor calls the day after the midterm results. At CoreCivic's call, president Lucibeth Mayberry told investors that ICE has "the secure funding" to increase enforcement and added, "we would urge the ICE administration to move quickly" on purchasing new detention centers.

GEO's own quarterly filing acknowledges the political exposure. Among its listed risk factors, the company states that it is "dependent on government appropriations, which may not be made on a timely basis or at all." Elsewhere in the same filing, it describes preparing for "an unprecedented opportunity to help the federal government meet its expanded immigration enforcement priorities."

What's next

The new Congress convenes in January, and Democrats have signaled oversight hearings and subpoenas aimed at ICE. Any attempt to cut detention funding would face a likely presidential veto, which leaves GEO's contract pipeline largely intact for now. GEO expects its newly activated facilities in Colorado and North Carolina to reach normal operations and earnings contribution in early 2027, with the Big Spring Complex following in the second quarter of 2027.

For Florida, the stakes run through Boca Raton's corporate offices and the detention center in Pompano Beach. As Washington debates whether to restrain ICE, the South Florida company that houses a growing share of its detainees is betting that the money already approved will keep flowing.