Deportations fall short of Trump's 1 million goal, report finds, as Florida leads the push on local immigration arrests

The Trump administration is deporting people faster than any recent president but is falling well short of its promise of 1 million removals a year, according to a new analysis from the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington think tank. The report, released Oct. 22, estimates the administration is on track for about 660,000 deportations over the past year. For Florida, which has built the nation's largest network of local police working with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the findings put a number on how far the federal push has gone, and how far it has to go.

What the report found

The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) based its analysis on Department of Homeland Security data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, because the administration has stopped publicly releasing similar figures, according to Fox 13 and The Associated Press. Its main estimates are below.

The current pace is about 26% above the yearly average under President Joe Biden from 2021 to 2024, MPI found, but well below the 1 million a year the administration promised when Congress approved billions of dollars for immigration enforcement. The administration says it has removed 1.2 million people during the second term, a figure MPI and news organizations could not verify.

Most deportations still begin at the border. From Jan. 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026, 69% of deportations involved people first intercepted at or near the border, according to the report. But the share tied to arrests inside the country is climbing: interior arrests accounted for about 28% of deportees in 2025 and 39% by July 2026.

Coverage of the report also noted that about four in five people deported in the 18-month period had no criminal record. The report described voluntary departures, in which people give up their immigration court cases and agree to leave, as reaching an all-time high. Some immigrant advocates and lawyers say many people are agreeing to leave mainly to get out of ICE detention.

The White House rejected the framing. "President Trump has delivered the largest reduction in illegal immigration in modern history," White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said, according to Fox 13.

Why interior arrests matter for Florida

The growing share of deportations that start with an arrest inside the country is where Florida plays its biggest role. Interior enforcement depends heavily on local jails and police, and no state has signed on to that work as extensively as Florida.

Florida leads the nation in 287(g) agreements, the federal program that lets ICE train and deputize state and local officers to carry out certain immigration enforcement duties. In September 2025, ICE said Florida had 325 agreements in place, a 577% increase since Jan. 20, 2025, and announced more than $38 million in federal funding for Florida's state and local partners to buy equipment and cover transportation. Gov. Ron DeSantis said at the time that Florida was proud to lead the nation on illegal immigration enforcement. Later counts put the number of participating Florida agencies at roughly 330 to 350, and every one of the state's 67 sheriffs has signed an agreement.

The state also tracks its own numbers. As of Oct. 14, Florida had assisted in the arrests of 27,898 undocumented immigrants statewide, according to WLRN, citing the Florida Division of Emergency Management. The Florida Press reported on Oct. 12 that Florida leads the nation in ICE detainer arrests, as local police take on a growing share of immigration arrests.

Deportation Depot fills the gap

Florida has also run its own detention operation. The state-operated facility known as Deportation Depot, in the former Baker Correctional Institution in Sanderson, about 40 miles west of Jacksonville, holds people before they are transferred to ICE custody. It currently houses about 1,000 detainees, according to WLRN. When it opened in September 2025, an ICE spokesperson said it could hold up to 2,000.

The Florida Division of Emergency Management, which sits under the governor's office, runs the site under a contract with GEO|CDR BAKER, a company led by executives from The GEO Group and CDR Health Care. The contract allows up to $101 million for staffing, correctional officers, intake and medical personnel, and the state had paid about $32 million as of Sept. 22, WLRN reported.

The facility drew scrutiny this month after the state mistakenly released two detainees over a weekend. FDEM blamed an administrative error, said both were quickly found and returned to custody, and said the matter was being reviewed to prevent similar incidents.

Alligator Alcatraz closed

The state's first detention site, the tent facility in the Everglades known as Alligator Alcatraz, is no longer operating. DeSantis announced its closure in late June, less than a year after it opened in July 2025.

Cost was the main driver, CBS News Miami reported in May. Operating costs were estimated at nearly $1 billion. The state had submitted a $608 million reimbursement request to the federal government, which was eventually approved, but had run up roughly $300 million in additional costs with no guarantee of federal repayment. About 1,400 detainees were held there at the time and were moved out ahead of the closure. DeSantis said in May that if the site closed, the state would be able to say it had served its purpose, and a state spokesperson said it was always meant to be temporary.

What it means for Floridians

The MPI report suggests the administration's path toward its deportation goal runs increasingly through interior arrests, the kind of enforcement that depends on cooperation from states like Florida. With 287(g) agreements in every county, a state-run detention center in Baker County and state agencies assisting in tens of thousands of arrests, Florida is among the places where that shift is most visible.

For immigrant families in Florida, the rise in voluntary departures and interior arrests means more contact with immigration enforcement through routine local policing, such as traffic stops and jail bookings. For taxpayers, the Alligator Alcatraz experience showed how much state-run detention can cost and how dependent Florida is on federal reimbursement.

What's next

MPI's estimates run through the summer, and the administration has not resumed regular public releases of its own deportation data, so independent tallies like this one remain the main check on official claims. In Florida, the next markers to watch are whether the state's 287(g) network keeps growing, how long Deportation Depot remains in use, and whether the federal government covers the remaining Alligator Alcatraz costs.