Data Centers Become a Defining Fight in the Donalds and Jolly Race for Governor

The race to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis has found an unexpected central issue. Republican nominee Byron Donalds and Democratic nominee David Jolly have spent recent weeks trading positions on artificial intelligence data centers, turning water use, electricity costs and local zoning control into a defining argument of the 2026 campaign.

Jolly has said he would sign an executive order on his first day in office imposing a one-year moratorium on data center construction statewide. Donalds has dismissed the moratorium as politics and instead favors letting local governments decide, paired with regulations barring the facilities from accessing public power and water sources.

Florida voters go to the polls on November 3. The most recent public survey, conducted by Change Research and completed September 9, found Jolly at 47 percent and Donalds at 44 percent, within the margin that makes the race genuinely competitive, though the expert consensus continues to rate the contest as leaning Republican.

Where Jolly stands

Jolly's position is the more restrictive of the two. He has committed to a one-year construction moratorium enacted by executive order on his first day in office, and he has said he would use that year to commission studies on the environmental and economic impacts of data centers.

Those studies would inform what legislation he would propose afterward. He has also said a complete ban should be on the table, leaving open the possibility of a permanent prohibition depending on what the research found.

His campaign has run advertising attacking Donalds over data center support, and Jolly has argued that Donalds accepting donations from data center developers would produce more facilities in Florida.

The position fits within Jolly's broader campaign framing around what he has called Florida's affordability crisis, in which utility costs and resource pressure feature alongside housing and insurance.

Where Donalds stands

Donalds has argued that a statewide pause would discourage investment and cost Florida jobs, and he has characterized Jolly's day-one moratorium as a political gesture rather than a policy.

His alternative centers on local control. Donalds has expressed support for letting individual county and municipal governments decide whether they want data centers in their communities, a position consistent with the framework Florida enacted earlier this year.

He has also proposed regulations that would bar data centers from accessing public power and water sources, which would require facilities to secure their own supply arrangements rather than drawing on municipal utilities.

That proposal addresses the resource objection through a different mechanism than a moratorium: rather than preventing construction, it removes the public subsidy implicit in access to ratepayer-funded infrastructure.

What the polling shows

The political incentive to take a restrictive position is clear. A University of North Florida survey found 68 percent of Florida voters opposed to having a data center in their area, a figure that crosses partisan lines.

Opposition of that magnitude is unusual for an issue that barely registered in Florida politics two years ago. It reflects how quickly the AI buildout has moved from an abstract technology story to a visible land use question in communities across the state.

That intensity explains why both candidates have positions rather than one. In a race this close, an issue with near-universal opposition is one neither candidate can afford to be on the wrong side of.

The distinction between them is therefore mechanism rather than direction. Both are proposing constraints; they differ on whether those constraints come from Tallahassee or from county commissions.

The local government reality

Florida's local governments have not waited for the state. By July 2026, between 14 and 20 counties and municipalities had enacted temporary moratoriums or permanent bans on large-scale data centers, including Volusia County, Sarasota County, Lakeland and Washington County.

Orange County commissioners signaled support in September for a one-year pause of their own while the county studies water supply, energy capacity and zoning implications.

That wave complicates the argument for a statewide moratorium, since a substantial portion of the state has effectively imposed local ones already. It also complicates the argument for local control, since the pattern suggests local governments will restrict the facilities widely if left to decide.

Either way, the practical outcome in much of Florida may look similar regardless of who wins in November.

The resource numbers driving the debate

The concerns are quantifiable. Large data centers can consume up to 5 million gallons of water per day for cooling, and a single modern AI facility can draw as much electricity as 100,000 homes.

In Central Florida, the St. Johns River Water Management District has projected a groundwater shortfall of 96 million gallons per day across Orange and four neighboring counties by 2045, with regional demand rising 41 percent to 905.5 million gallons per day.

Florida's drinking water comes overwhelmingly from the Floridan Aquifer, a resource that is finite, slow to recharge in some areas, and vulnerable to saltwater intrusion along the coasts when overdrawn.

Those are the numbers that have moved data centers from an economic development story to an environmental one in Florida politics.

What Florida law currently says

Senate Bill 484, signed by DeSantis in May 2026 and effective July 1, already establishes a framework. It defines large-scale data centers as facilities with monthly peak loads of at least 50 megawatts, preserves local authority to reject them, requires the Public Service Commission to develop rate structures so that data center owners bear their own energy costs, and imposes water use permit requirements.

That law is closer to the Donalds position than to the Jolly position, which is unsurprising given that a Republican legislature and governor enacted it.

A Jolly administration proposing a statewide moratorium would be working against that framework and would likely need legislative cooperation for anything beyond a temporary executive action.

A Donalds administration would be building on it, with the added element of restricting access to public utilities.

The broader affordability frame

The data center argument sits inside a larger campaign conversation about cost of living. Florida's property insurance premiums, housing costs and utility bills have all been central to the race, and the state's minimum wage reaching $15 at the end of September has kept wages in the discussion as well.

Jolly has built his campaign around affordability, along with expanding primary health care access, reproductive rights, gun violence reduction and investment in public schools.

Donalds has campaigned as a continuation of the DeSantis approach with an emphasis on economic growth, and he carries an endorsement from President Trump.

Data centers connect to affordability directly through electricity rates, which is what makes the issue politically potent rather than merely technical.

What it means for Florida voters

For voters, the practical question is which mechanism they prefer. A statewide moratorium would apply uniformly, including in counties that want the investment. Local control would produce a patchwork, with some counties accepting facilities and others rejecting them.

Restricting access to public power and water, the Donalds proposal, would allow construction while shifting infrastructure costs onto developers, a middle path that neither bans facilities nor subsidizes them.

Residents in counties that have already enacted moratoriums may see little immediate change under either administration. Residents in counties that have not will see the difference more directly.

How the race got here

Florida's August 18 primary produced the November matchup. Donalds won the Republican nomination with President Trump's endorsement, and Jolly, a former Republican member of Congress now running as a Democrat, emerged from the Democratic field.

The general election is for an open seat. DeSantis is term-limited after two terms, which means Florida will have a new governor in January regardless of the outcome, the first change in the office since 2019.

Jolly's party switch has been a feature of the campaign on both sides. He has framed it as a response to the direction of the Republican Party; Donalds has used it to question his convictions.

Florida has trended Republican in statewide elections over the past several cycles, which underlies the expert consensus rating the race as leaning Republican despite polling showing a close contest.

What a governor can actually do

The mechanics matter for evaluating both proposals. A governor can issue executive orders, but those orders bind executive branch agencies rather than local governments or private parties, and they cannot override statute.

A day-one moratorium on data center construction would therefore need to work through agency permitting authority, most plausibly through the water management districts and the Department of Environmental Protection, whose governing boards the governor appoints.

Durable policy requires legislation. Florida's Legislature has been under Republican control for decades, which means a Democratic governor would face substantial obstacles enacting a statutory moratorium.

A Republican governor building on the existing framework would have an easier path, though the specific proposal to bar data centers from public power and water access would also require legislative or regulatory action.

The rest of the ballot

The governor's race is not the only contest on Florida's November 3 ballot. Voters will also decide legislative races, congressional seats and ballot questions, including a proposed constitutional amendment addressing property taxes.

That amendment, placed before voters by the Legislature after DeSantis advanced a property tax relief plan, would change how homeowners are assessed and has generated its own campaign activity.

Turnout in Florida midterm elections has historically favored Republicans, though the closeness of the gubernatorial polling suggests both parties expect a more competitive environment than recent cycles produced.

What's next

The general election is November 3. Between now and then, both campaigns are expected to continue pressing the issue, with Jolly's advertising already targeting Donalds on it.

Local governments will continue acting independently regardless of the campaign. Orange County's ordinance process is underway, and other jurisdictions have similar discussions scheduled.

Whoever wins will inherit a state law enacted this year, a growing number of local moratoriums, and an industry that has shown it will build where it is welcome and go elsewhere when it is not.