Jolly Courts Undecided Black Voters With Clyburn in Tallahassee as Donalds Holds Poll Lead Three Weeks Before Florida's Governor Election

Three weeks before Florida's Nov. 3 election, Democratic nominee David Jolly spent Monday in Tallahassee making the case that the governor's race will be decided by a small slice of the electorate: Black voters who have not yet made up their minds. Jolly campaigned on Oct. 12 with running mate Gwen Graham, South Carolina U.S. Rep. James Clyburn and former U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, and held a town hall at Florida A&M University that evening. The same day, the Florida Planned Parenthood PAC endorsed the Jolly and Graham ticket, adding an abortion rights message to the Democrats' closing push.

Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, who would be Florida's first Black governor, still leads in most public polling, by margins ranging from a statistical tie to 10 points. He also holds a fundraising edge of roughly eight to one.

Jolly's stop in Tallahassee

According to the Florida Phoenix, which reported the visit in a story republished by WLRN, Jolly met with the Florida State University Black Student Union and with leaders of Divine Nine sorority and fraternity chapters at FSU and FAMU before the evening town hall. Lawson, a Tallahassee Democrat, lost his congressional seat after Republicans dismantled his minority-access district during redistricting.

"A vote for Jolly is a vote to change the course of Florida," Lawson said, according to the Phoenix.

Jolly's campaign has organized a coalition of pastors from historically Black congregations, chaired by the Rev. Dr. R.B. Holmes of Tallahassee, and several Black state legislators sit on his leadership team.

The math on Black voters

Jolly said he believes about 80% of Black voters support him and about 10% are undecided, a figure he described as roughly where a Democrat should be three weeks out. An NBC6 and Telemundo 51 poll conducted by Mason-Dixon found Jolly winning Black voters 76% to 10% over Donalds, with 14% undecided.

"I think there are two final fronts in this race," Jolly told the Phoenix. One, he said, is "the disaffected Republican," and the other is "the 10% of undecided Black voters in Florida right now." He added: "But that last 10% is where I think this race could get decided."

Jolly acknowledged that Donalds' candidacy carries historic weight. "Some will reach for history because they want to elect the first Black governor," he said. "I don't squabble with the reach for history. I do squabble with the agenda and the platform." He also said Democrat Angie Nixon's presence at the top of the U.S. Senate ticket "helps a lot." Nixon, a Black state representative from Jacksonville, is challenging Republican Sen. Ashley Moody.

Donalds makes his own pitch to Black voters

Donalds has been courting the same voters. He held the first candidate town hall of the season at FAMU's Lee Hall in late September, an event organized by students and described by WFSU as including a false fire alarm and a skeptical audience. Donalds attended FAMU from 1996 to 1999 but did not graduate, and he referenced that history on stage.

At the town hall, according to WFSU, Donalds defended federal immigration enforcement, saying lawful residents have nothing to fear, and backed Florida's ban on government diversity, equity and inclusion programs, saying he supports diversity but sees equity as the problem. Some students questioned his motives. FAMU President Marva Johnson said the university does not endorse candidates.

Donalds carries the endorsements of President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis. His running mate is Bryan Avila, a Hialeah lawmaker whose parents fled Cuba. Jolly argued in his Tallahassee remarks that Donalds, who he said is drawing only about 9% to 10% of Black voters, is "trying to scare a lot of Republicans to come back home."

Where the polls stand

Recent surveys all show Donalds ahead or the race tied, but the size of his lead depends heavily on the pollster.

The Mason-Dixon poll surveyed 625 registered voters who said they were likely to vote, by live telephone, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points; 10% were undecided. Donalds led among men 55% to 33%, while Jolly led among women 49% to 41%. Independents favored Jolly 47% to 28%, with 24% undecided. Regionally, Donalds dominated North, Central and Southwest Florida, while Jolly led in Southeast Florida, 52% to 36%, and in Tampa Bay, 48% to 42%. Hispanic voters narrowly favored Donalds, 48% to 43%.

The James Madison Institute figures, among likely voters, were reported by The Floridian; among all registered voters in that survey Donalds led 48% to 39%. The St. Pete Polls survey of 836 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points. RealClearPolling's average in early October put Donalds ahead by about 5 points.

Money, ads and the debate standoff

As of Sept. 25, Donalds' campaign and political committee had raised a combined $134.4 million and spent $91.7 million, according to CBS Miami and the News Service of Florida. Jolly had raised $16.7 million and spent $11.2 million.

Donalds released two television ads on Oct. 6. One, titled "Fighter," features Trump praising him. The other, "Never," attacks Jolly on affordability and highlights Donalds' vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which temporarily cut taxes on overtime, tips and Social Security, while claiming Jolly would raise taxes and insurance costs. Jolly has answered with his own ad calling Donalds a liar and denying that he would raise taxes or support offshore drilling. "Byron Donalds is proud to have the endorsement of President Trump and Governor DeSantis," Donalds strategist Ryan Smith said.

No debate has been scheduled. Donalds said in September he had accepted three debates, hosted by Telemundo and NBC6, News4Jax and Spectrum News. Jolly declined on Sept. 21, accusing Donalds of bad-faith tactics, while his campaign said Jolly had already accepted two other debates that Donalds would not do. Donalds has said Jolly "doesn't have the courage of his convictions."

Planned Parenthood endorses Jolly and 19 other Democrats

The Florida Planned Parenthood PAC on Oct. 12 endorsed Jolly and Graham, José Javier Rodríguez for attorney general against Republican incumbent James Uthmeier, three Democrats for the Florida Senate and 14 for the Florida House. The Senate picks are Brian Nathan (District 14), Rosalind Osgood (District 32) and Ashley Gantt (District 34).

"Floridians are fed up with politicians inserting themselves in our private medical decisions," said Michelle Grimsley Shindano, executive director of Planned Parenthood Florida Action. Florida's six-week abortion ban has been in effect since May 2024. In November 2024, 57% of voters backed Amendment 4, which would have barred restrictions on abortion before viability, but it fell short of the 60% needed to change the state constitution.

Key dates for voters

The registration deadline for the general election passed on Oct. 5. Florida's required early voting window runs Oct. 24 to Oct. 31, but counties may start earlier, and several, including Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, Broward, St. Lucie and Indian River, open early voting sites on Oct. 19. Voters should check their county supervisor of elections for local dates and hours.

What's next

Both campaigns are now competing for the same narrow groups: undecided Black voters, independents and Republicans unsettled by the national climate. Jolly is betting that Democratic surrogates such as Clyburn, along with the Nixon Senate campaign, can lift turnout in North Florida and in Black communities statewide. Donalds is relying on his money advantage, Trump and DeSantis endorsements, and his own outreach to argue that Republicans can compete for those voters. With early voting days away in many counties, the polls that show a tie and those that show a double-digit gap will soon be tested against actual ballots.