Florida Races Pull In Tens of Millions as 2026 Midterms Head Toward Record $11.6 Billion in Ad Spending

The 2026 midterm elections are on track to be the most expensive in American history, and Florida voters are seeing a share of that money in their mailboxes, phones and TV screens as early voting gets underway. More than $15 billion has been raised to influence control of Congress, NPR reported Monday, and the ad-tracking firm AdImpact projects that political advertising alone will reach a record $11.6 billion this cycle. In Florida, the heaviest spending is flowing into a South Florida congressional race, a U.S. Senate contest where the Democrat is now outraising the incumbent, a governor's race with a huge money gap, and a property tax amendment backed by more than $21 million from real estate interests.

A record national cycle

AdImpact raised its 2026 forecast in June to $11.6 billion, up from the $10.8 billion it projected in September 2025. That would top the $11.2 billion spent on political ads in the 2024 presidential cycle and far exceed the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms, making 2026 the most expensive cycle for political advertising on record, midterm or presidential. The firm tied the increase to a growing number of competitive Senate and governor's races, costly ballot measures and surging fundraising by campaigns, parties and super PACs. The Boston Globe reported that the cycle's ad spending passed $10 billion on Oct. 14.

The money is concentrated in a few places. Ohio's Senate race had drawn roughly $197 million in ads as of Sept. 22, the most of any Senate contest, and California's governor's race was projected to see about $346 million. NPR reported that 75 percent of planned ad buys are in toss-up races or those leaning Republican, and that in the 13 competitive races highlighted by the Cook Political Report, Republican candidates are being outraised by Democrats 5 to 1.

Republicans are leaning on a handful of megadonors to close that gap. Elon Musk has given more than $276 million since July to help Republicans keep control of Congress, making him the largest known donor of the midterms, The Associated Press reported Monday.

Florida was once expected to be a bigger part of that national picture. In its June update, AdImpact cut its Florida projection by about $200.1 million, citing a lack of competitive statewide races and the mid-decade redistricting that created new Republican-leaning House seats. Several Florida races have since grown more competitive, and the money has followed.

Florida's most expensive races at a glance

The figures below come from campaign finance reports, AdImpact data and news reports, and they measure different things, from candidate fundraising to outside group spending.

South Florida's House battlegrounds

The redrawn 25th Congressional District in Broward and Palm Beach counties has become the state's costliest House fight. Republicans have spent about $14 million in the district since Labor Day trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz with former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, according to AdImpact figures cited by the Cook Political Report. Cook nonetheless moved the race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat on Oct. 16, saying Moskowitz has kept his edge. Republican ads have focused on Moskowitz's stock trading, while Democrats have attacked Singer over a disputed real estate development plan in Boca Raton.

In Miami-Dade's 27th District, Democrats are trying to expand the map against three-term Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. As of the summer filing period, Salazar had raised more than $1.99 million and had more than $2.25 million in cash, compared with about $661,000 raised by Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, a former television journalist, according to Federal Election Commission reports cited by Local 10. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Rodriguez to its Red to Blue program this month, and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries campaigned with him in Pinecrest on Friday. Cook and the NBC News Decision Desk rate the seat Lean Republican.

The Senate race

In the special election for the U.S. Senate seat Moody was appointed to fill, Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon outraised the incumbent in the third quarter. Federal filings show Nixon took in about $7.6 million from July 30 through Sept. 30, compared with about $5.8 million across Moody's campaign and affiliated committees, a gap of roughly $1.8 million. The Tampa Bay Times reported that most of Nixon's money came in small-dollar donations. Moody still had more money in the bank, entering October with more than $7.1 million across her accounts compared with about $4.5 million for Nixon.

Outside money has favored Moody. Stronger Safer Nation, a super PAC backed by Citadel founder Ken Griffin, spent $4.9 million attacking Nixon over two weeks in late September, accounting for about 87 percent of spending in the race at that point, Reuters reported on Oct. 1. The Miami Herald has reported that Griffin gave $2.5 million to a committee backing Moody.

Governor, attorney general and Amendment 3

The governor's race shows the widest money gap on the ballot. Republican Byron Donalds has raised more than $115 million through his political committee, while Democrat David Jolly has raised about $16 million, Fox 13 reported in late September. Jolly argued at the time that the race had tightened anyway and that it does not take a lot of money to reach voters in this environment. Both candidates accepted state matching funds under Florida's public financing program.

In the attorney general's race, the Democratic Attorneys General Association announced on Oct. 8 that it would put $5 million behind José Javier Rodríguez's bid to unseat Uthmeier, a former chief of staff to Gov. Ron DeSantis whose campaign has been shadowed by the Hope Florida controversy. Even with that help, Rodríguez faces a large deficit: Uthmeier and his political operation had raised more than $13 million as of reports posted Oct. 2, compared with about $3 million for Rodríguez.

The most money tied to a single Florida ballot question is behind Amendment 3, which would raise the homestead property tax exemption on non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. The Yes on 3 committee had taken in $21,516,510 as of Oct. 9, including $2,016,500 from the National Association of Realtors that day, with roughly $7 million left to spend, according to Florida Politics. The Florida Realtors trade group has supplied most of the money. Opposing committees had raised a combined $537,357 as of September. Critics, citing state economists, say the measure would cost local governments about $5 billion in its first year. It needs 60 percent of the vote to pass.

What it means for Florida voters

For Floridians, the spending shows up as a steady run of TV, digital and mail ads, heaviest in South Florida, where the FL-25 and FL-27 fights overlap, along with statewide spots for the Senate, governor and Amendment 3 campaigns. The ads have themselves become a battleground: the Republican Party of Florida has gone to court to block a Democratic ad about the Hope Florida grand jury report that was set to air on Orlando and Tampa Bay stations. Early voting began Monday in Miami-Dade County, so many of those ads now reach voters who can cast ballots the same day.

What's next

Federal candidates file pre-general election reports covering the first half of October, which will show how much Nixon and Moody, Moskowitz and Singer, and Salazar and Rodriguez have left for the final stretch. State candidates and committees, including the Donalds and Jolly committees and the Amendment 3 campaigns, will continue filing frequent reports with the Florida Division of Elections through Election Day. National totals will keep climbing as super PACs make late buys, and AdImpact's final tally will show whether 2026 lands above its $11.6 billion forecast. Election Day is Nov. 3.