Florida's U.S. House Races Under the New 24-4 Map: Where the Battlegrounds Stand Four Weeks Out

Four weeks before the Nov. 3 election, Florida's 28 U.S. House races are being fought on a congressional map that Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Legislature redrew this spring with the stated expectation of a 24 to 4 Republican delegation, up from the current 20 to 8. Two of the four Democrats the map was drawn around face the toughest races of their careers and the other two have moved to safer seats, a lawsuit challenging the map is still pending, and the next round of campaign finance reports, due Oct. 15, will show how much money each side is putting behind the handful of seats that are genuinely in play.

Because Florida holds the third-largest House delegation, behind California and Texas, the outcome of these races could matter for control of the chamber in January.

How the map was made

DeSantis called a special session in January for the purpose of redistricting, and on April 27 proposed a 24 to 4 map that targeted four Democratic incumbents: Kathy Castor of Tampa, Darren Soto of the Orlando area, Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach and Debbie Wasserman Schultz of the Fort Lauderdale area. The Florida House approved the plan April 29 on an 83 to 28 vote, and the Senate passed it 21 to 17, with four Republican senators, Jennifer Bradley, Alexis Calatayud, Ileana Garcia and Erin Grall, voting no. DeSantis signed it May 4.

Supporters argued the new lines correct problems with the prior map and align Florida with the U.S. Supreme Court's April 29 decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which held that the Voting Rights Act does not require majority-minority districts. Critics, including Democratic lawmakers and voting rights groups, said the map was drawn with partisan intent in violation of the Fair Districts Amendment voters added to the state constitution in 2010.

The lawsuit that will outlast the election

Voting rights groups, including Equal Ground, Common Cause and the Campaign Legal Center, sued within a day of the signing. The cases were consolidated before Leon County Circuit Judge Joshua Hawkes, who on May 26 declined to block the map for 2026, citing how close the election calendar was. On June 10, the Florida Supreme Court denied an emergency petition to take up the case, on a 6 to 1 vote with Justice Jorge Labarga dissenting. Justice Adam Tanenbaum wrote in a concurrence that the plaintiffs would have their days in court in due course.

That leaves the merits of the Fair Districts challenge in the trial court. Any ruling against the map would come after Nov. 3 and would affect future elections, most likely 2028, not the members elected this fall.

Where the targeted Democrats landed

The map did not simply put four Democrats in tougher seats. It also reshuffled which Democrats run where, particularly in South Florida.

• Kathy Castor, 14th District (Tampa): Castor faces former state Rep. Mike Beltran in a district Trump would have carried under the new lines. The Cook Political Report rates it a toss-up. Castor reported raising more than $2.5 million in the third quarter, a story The Florida Press covered in detail this week.
• Darren Soto, 9th District (Orlando area): Soto faces Republican Dan Green, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense and Navy reserve officer who won a crowded Republican primary with about 25% of the vote. Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all list the seat as Likely Republican, meaning they expect it to flip.
• Lois Frankel: Frankel left the redrawn 22nd District and is running in the new 23rd, rated solidly Democratic, against Republican Deborah Adeimy.
• Debbie Wasserman Schultz: Wasserman Schultz moved to the 20th District, left vacant when Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned on April 21. She won the August primary with 45.3% of the vote over former Broward Mayor Dale Holness and Cherfilus-McCormick, and faces Republican Brent Andersen in a safely Democratic seat.

The more competitive South Florida fights came from that shuffle. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat who previously represented the 23rd District, is running in the redrawn 25th, which Trump carried by about nine points in 2024. He faces former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, and Cook rates the race a toss-up. Frankel's old 22nd District is now an open seat between Democrat Pia Dandiya, an Apple manager, and Republican businessman Casey Askar. Cook rated it a toss-up as of Sept. 25, while Sabato's Crystal Ball lists it as Lean Republican.

The races to watch

These are the Florida districts that national forecasters rate as competitive or that changed parties' calculations this year, with the Cook Political Report's most recent rating:

In the 7th District, Republican Rep. Cory Mills lost his August primary to former WOFL reporter Ryan Elijah, 47.3% to 34.1%, after DeSantis came out against the incumbent. Elijah faces Democrat Bale Dalton. In the Tampa Bay-area 13th, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna faces retired Army Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, who reported raising more than $1.4 million in the third quarter. Cook rated the race Lean Republican as of Sept. 25.

In Miami's 27th District, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, a longtime television journalist, in a race shaped by Salazar's public breaks with the administration on immigration. Cook rates it Lean Republican.

Open seats elsewhere

Several safely partisan seats will still send new members to Washington. In the Panhandle's 2nd District, where Rep. Neal Dunn is retiring, Republican Austin Rogers, a former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott, faces Democrat Amanda Green. In the Sarasota-area 16th, open after Rep. Vern Buchanan's retirement, Republican Sydney Gruters faces former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner. In Southwest Florida's 19th, vacated by gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, Republican Jim Schwartzel faces Democrat Victor Arias. In Miami's 24th, where Rep. Frederica Wilson is retiring, Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert is the Democratic nominee. In Orlando's 10th, Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost drew no qualified opponent.

The money test: Oct. 15

House candidates' October quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission, covering July 1 through Sept. 30, are due Oct. 15. A pre-general report covering the first two weeks of October follows on Oct. 22. Those filings will show whether national party committees and outside groups are treating the 14th, 22nd and 25th districts as top-tier targets, and whether challengers such as Gray in the 13th can sustain spending through Election Day.

Political analysts have noted a risk built into an aggressive map: spreading Republican voters across more districts narrows margins in several of them, which can turn safe seats competitive in a strong year for Democrats. DeSantis has acknowledged that concern. The ratings above suggest Republicans are favored to gain at least one seat, with the three toss-ups in Tampa and South Florida deciding how close the party comes to the full 24 to 4.

What's next

Florida's voter registration books closed Monday, Oct. 5. Early voting runs statewide from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31, with some counties offering additional days, and Election Day is Nov. 3. The Fair Districts lawsuit will continue in Leon County regardless of the results, with appeals widely expected, and the Florida Supreme Court is likely to have the final word on whether the map can be used again in 2028.