María Elvira Salazar faces her toughest re-election test yet as Eliott Rodriguez targets Miami's 27th District

U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar, the Miami Republican who has won three straight elections in Florida's 27th Congressional District, faces what is shaping up as her closest race since she first captured the seat in 2020. Her opponent on Tuesday's ballot, Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, is a longtime South Florida television anchor who has made the contest one of a small number of Florida House races that national Democrats believe they can flip as they try to retake the U.S. House.

The matchup pits two Cuban American former broadcast journalists against each other in a district where immigration enforcement, the end of Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans, policy toward Cuba and Venezuela and the rising cost of living have dominated the campaign.

The district and its history

The 27th District lies entirely within Miami-Dade County. It includes parts of Miami south of the Dolphin Expressway, among them downtown and Little Havana, along with Coral Gables, South Miami, Pinecrest, Kendall, Palmetto Bay and Cutler Bay. About three in four residents are Hispanic. According to Axios, the district's lines did not change in the congressional map the Legislature approved in April, which redrew other Florida seats to favor Republicans.

The seat has swung between the parties. Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen held the seat and its predecessor district for decades before Democrat Donna Shalala won it in 2018. Salazar's margins have grown in each election since:

That record made the seat look safe a year ago. But national forecasters have since moved it toward the competitive column, with ratings trackers listing the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball at "Lean Republican." The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Rodriguez to its "Red to Blue" program, and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has campaigned in Miami on his behalf.

The candidates

Salazar, a former Telemundo and Univision journalist, has positioned herself as a Republican willing to break with her party on immigration. Since 2022 she has pushed the Dignity Act, which would let many longtime undocumented immigrants work legally and gain a form of legal status without a direct path to citizenship. In a recent ad she said some immigration enforcement had "gone too far," according to WLRN. She also voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the 2025 Republican budget law that sharply increased funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and President Donald Trump has given her his endorsement. She won her August primary over V. Michael Arias with 81 percent of the vote.

Rodriguez, the son of Cuban immigrants, anchored the news at CBS4 Miami for years before retiring and entering the race in March. He won the Democratic nomination on Aug. 18 over former federal prosecutor Robin Peguero, 54 percent to 46 percent. He has said he left CBS over changes at CBS News under its new ownership. "For too many families, our community has simply become too expensive to live in," he said on primary night, according to WLRN.

Immigration, TPS and Venezuela

Immigration is the issue both candidates call central. Salazar told CBS Miami it is one of her signature issues and said she expects Trump to sign an immigration reform bill within two years. Rodriguez has said immigration is "vital to this district" and opposes the administration's mass deportation campaign, arguing it has fallen hard on Cuban and other Latino families. He supports border security combined with faster case processing and protections for Dreamers and for Haitians, Venezuelans and eligible Cubans.

The end of Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans has hit South Florida, home to the nation's largest Venezuelan community, especially hard. The Trump administration moved to terminate the designations in 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed it to proceed, and the last protections lapsed in early October 2026. Salazar co-sponsored the bipartisan Venezuela TPS Act and in March signed a discharge petition filed by Democratic Rep. Darren Soto of Orlando to force a House floor vote on it. Rodriguez argues those steps came too late and that Salazar should answer for votes that funded the crackdown.

On Venezuela more broadly, Salazar has called the country's interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, a "necessary evil" until free elections can be held, according to The Hill. On Cuba, she backs the oil blockade and sanctions on the island's government, arguing they will force political change. Eliott Rodriguez opposes the "maximum pressure" approach, saying it hurts ordinary Cubans, and favors an economic transition he argues would lead toward democracy.

Costs, health care and the money race

Both candidates name affordability as a top concern. Rodriguez points to high rents, home prices and insurance costs, and he blames Salazar for Medicaid cuts in the 2025 budget law, which he has promised to reverse. Salazar has said residents "do not have enough money in their pockets," according to CBS Miami.

Salazar still holds the financial edge. According to Florida Politics, Rodriguez outraised her in the July-through-September quarter, bringing in more than $723,000, mostly from individual donors, to about $418,000 for Salazar. But Salazar entered October with about $2 million in the bank, compared with roughly $679,000 for Rodriguez. Rodriguez has also challenged Salazar to three debates, two in English and one in Spanish; she has not accepted, and she has not debated an opponent since 2020.

The national stakes

Republicans enter Tuesday defending a narrow House majority, and several national forecasts have favored Democrats to win control. Florida's new map was designed to help Republicans pick up as many as four seats, which could offset Democratic gains elsewhere. That makes a Republican-held seat like the 27th, which Salazar won by about 21 points in 2024, important to both parties: a Rodriguez win would erase part of the cushion Republicans hoped the new map would provide.

Polling has been sparse and largely partisan. A Bendixen & Amandi survey for Rodriguez's campaign in August found the race tied at 45 percent, and an Oct. 20 to 23 RedBox Research poll from a Democratic firm showed Salazar ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. No independent public poll of the district has been released in the final weeks.

What's next

Polls across Miami-Dade open at 7 a.m. Tuesday and close at 7 p.m. The county's supervisor of elections will report early and mail ballots first, followed by Election Day precinct results. Whoever wins will take office in January in a House where the margin of control may come down to a handful of seats, and where South Florida's representatives will be central to decisions on immigration, TPS and policy toward Cuba and Venezuela.