Mario Díaz-Balart Leads Nicole Locklin by Fewer Than 1,800 Votes in Redrawn 26th District as Race Stays Too Close to Call

Republican U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart, the longest-serving member of Florida's congressional delegation, held a lead of fewer than 1,800 votes over Democrat Nicole Locklin early Wednesday in Florida's redrawn 26th Congressional District, a seat he won by about 42 points two years ago. Provisional state figures showed Díaz-Balart with 49.87% of the vote to Locklin's 49.10%. Local 10 News reported Wednesday morning that the race remained too close to call, and both candidates had claimed victory Tuesday night. All results are unofficial.

The tight contest unfolded on a night when Democrats were projected to win control of the U.S. House nationally, according to NBC News and CBS News projections, and it was one of several South Florida races that tested how far the Democratic wave would reach into heavily Hispanic, Republican-leaning districts.

Where the count stands

Provisional state figures reported early Wednesday showed the following, with about 99% of precincts reporting.

A margin of 1,772 votes works out to roughly 0.77 percentage point. Florida law requires an automatic machine recount only when the margin is 0.5 percentage point or less, and the News Service of Florida, in a story published by NBC 6, reported that Díaz-Balart's lead was enough to avoid a recount if it holds. NBC News' results tracker showed Locklin would need almost all of the remaining uncounted vote to overtake him. The Associated Press had not called the race in the reports reviewed for this story.

The vote split sharply by county. Locklin led by about 22 points in the Broward County portion of the district, while Díaz-Balart led by a similar margin in Miami-Dade, according to the Miami Herald.

How the new map changed the 26th

The congressional map that Gov. Ron DeSantis signed in May removed Collier County from the 26th District and added part of southwest Broward County, including part of Pembroke Pines, according to a WUSF breakdown of the new lines. The Miami-Dade core of the district remains, including Hialeah, Doral and Miami Lakes, communities where more than 70% of residents in Doral and Hialeah were born abroad, according to census figures cited by the Herald.

The seat was still built to favor Republicans: Trump carried the redrawn district by about 18 points in 2024, according to the Tampa Bay Times. A first-time Democratic candidate nonetheless came within a point.

The candidates

Díaz-Balart, 65, is a Cuban American Republican whose family left Cuba in 1959. First elected in 2002, he is vice chair of the House Appropriations Committee and chairs its subcommittee on National Security, Department of State and Related Programs. Neither candidate faced a primary.

Locklin, 38, is a lawyer for the data company Databricks who moved from California to Miami last year, according to the Herald. It was her first run for Congress, and she was heavily outspent. Through Oct. 14, Díaz-Balart had raised about $2.76 million and spent about $2.91 million this cycle, while Locklin had raised about $600,000 and spent about $490,000, according to pre-general federal campaign finance reports cited by the Herald.

Immigration, TPS and cost of living

The cost of living was the central theme. Díaz-Balart highlighted about $12 billion in cuts to what he called wasteful spending, mostly foreign aid, made through his subcommittee, along with federal tax relief for seniors and tipped workers. Locklin framed corruption as the root cause of South Florida's affordability crisis and called for eliminating Trump's tariffs, curbing luxury condo construction during a housing crunch and supporting Sen. Bernie Sanders' proposed tax on billionaires.

Immigration carried particular weight in a district where most residents of its largest cities were born abroad. Díaz-Balart voted for Trump's signature tax and spending law, which gave ICE an additional $75 billion over four years, but he also called some enforcement an "unnecessary and negative overreaction" and said arrests of people in legal immigration proceedings were unacceptable. He said he has "always supported TPS" for Venezuelans and Haitians, and in April he was one of 10 Republicans who joined Democrats to extend Haiti's Temporary Protected Status through 2029. He wrote to then Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem asking that Venezuelans without criminal records not be sent back, and he has proposed a temporary program to review cases of migrants from Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, starting with those most likely to have valid asylum claims. He acknowledged that his meetings with the White House and Homeland Security had not yet changed the policy. The Trump administration has ended TPS for about 350,000 Haitians and roughly 600,000 Venezuelans after the Supreme Court ruled that courts cannot review such decisions, the Herald reported. Locklin called for abolishing ICE, expanding legal immigration pathways and hiring more immigration judges.

On Cuba, Díaz-Balart backed the administration's maximum pressure campaign and predicted the Cuban government would fall before Trump leaves office.

What it means for Hialeah, Doral and southwest Broward

If his lead holds, Díaz-Balart returns for a 13th term, but in a Democratic House. The majority party controls committee chairs, so his subcommittee gavel on Appropriations would pass to a Democrat, though he would remain a senior Republican voice on federal spending, including foreign aid and State Department programs. For immigrant families in Doral and Hialeah, the result keeps in office a Republican who has broken with the administration on TPS and some deportation practices.

Statewide, the new map meant to add Republican seats did not do so. All four Democratic seats it endangered stayed Democratic, according to the Tampa Bay Times, and if the close Republican leads in the 26th and neighboring 27th districts hold, Florida's House delegation will remain at 20 Republicans and eight Democrats, according to the News Service of Florida.

What's next

Miami-Dade and Broward election officials will continue counting remaining ballots, including provisional ballots and eligible overseas and military ballots, before county canvassing boards report official results to the state. The Florida Elections Canvassing Commission then certifies the results. A recount would be ordered only if the margin narrows to 0.5 point or less.

The winner will be sworn in with the new Congress on Jan. 3, 2027.