Rep. Salazar's immigration break with Trump reshapes FL-27 race a month before Election Day

U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar, the Miami Republican who has represented Florida's 27th Congressional District since 2021, enters the final month of her reelection campaign in an open dispute with President Donald Trump over immigration enforcement, a rift that has drawn national attention to a district Trump carried by 15 points two years ago. With Election Day on Nov. 3, her Democratic challenger, former television anchor Eliott Rodriguez, is working to keep her tied to the president she is now publicly criticizing.

The split began with a campaign ad and escalated on Saturday, Sept. 26, when Trump reposted more than a dozen messages on his Truth Social account attacking Salazar, including calls to replace her on the ballot. The episode came about six weeks after Trump gave the three-term congresswoman his endorsement and has reshaped a race that national forecasters only months ago considered safely Republican.

The ad that started the rift

Salazar released the ad on Sept. 16, according to WUSF, filming it outside the White House and addressing Trump directly as "Mr. President." She tells him in the spot that "some of" his immigration enforcement efforts "have gone too far," according to CBS News and other outlets that published its text.

In the ad, Salazar cites federal detention data, saying that in July, 50% of the 50,000 people detained had no criminal record. CBS News reported that July was the first month of Trump's second term in which people with only civil immigration violations, rather than pending criminal charges or convictions, made up more than half of those arrested.

Salazar also warns in the ad that the Hispanic voters who helped return Trump to the White House in 2024 "feel betrayed today," and she asks him to give immigrants a dignified life in the United States. Salazar has sponsored the Dignidad Act, a broad immigration bill that would offer work authorization and a path to legal status for millions of undocumented immigrants who meet its requirements.

In the days after the ad aired, Salazar told CBS News' "Face the Nation" that she had a "very good conversation" with the president and described him as "very receptive" to her warning. She said she urged Trump to "preserve that fortune" he had built with Hispanic voters for the Republican Party.

Trump's response, from Oval Office to Truth Social

Trump's first public reaction was measured. Speaking in the Oval Office, he told reporters, "I disagree with her," and said Salazar "got a little bit soft on the border," according to multiple news reports. He also said she would not have won without his endorsement, but he did not withdraw it.

That endorsement came on Aug. 17, the day before Florida's primary, when Trump posted that Salazar had his "Complete and Total Endorsement" for reelection and praised her work on the economy, taxes, border security and the Second Amendment.

On the evening of Saturday, Sept. 26, Trump reposted a series of messages from other Truth Social users criticizing her. News outlets counted between 13 and 14 reposts. One called her "nothing but a back stabber," and another said Republicans needed "a NEW Republican to Replace Salazar," according to reports by CNN and others. WUSF reported that the posts included demands that Republicans replace her on the Nov. 3 ballot and came barely a week after the president had reaffirmed his support for her reelection.

The White House, in a statement reported by CNN, said it was unfortunate that Salazar held her view but that it was not the president's, adding that Trump campaigned on a strong border.

Rodriguez works to keep Salazar tied to Trump

Rodriguez, a Cuban American and the child of Cuban immigrants, spent decades as a South Florida television anchor before retiring from CBS News Miami in December 2025, according to WLRN. He launched his campaign in March and won the Aug. 18 Democratic primary over former prosecutor Robin Peguero, about 54% to 46%.

He has dismissed Salazar's ad as a "desperate political stunt," WUSF reported. After Trump's reposts, Rodriguez issued a statement saying Salazar had become so politically toxic that even Trump appeared to be distancing himself from his "problem child."

Rodriguez has argued that Salazar cannot separate herself from the president now. In an interview published Oct. 1 by Newsweek, he likened the situation to "Hotel MAGA," saying candidates can check in but can never leave. He has criticized her congressional record on health care and immigration and has called her Dignidad Act the "Indignity Act," arguing that its requirements for fines and back taxes do not deliver clear benefits to immigrants. Earlier, he told CBS News that Salazar tries to present herself as a champion of immigrants but "votes contrary to that."

Ratings shift and the polling picture

On Friday, Sept. 25, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the race from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." Its analysts wrote that recent polls and a backlash among Hispanic voters toward the Trump administration had forced Salazar to "play defense," according to WUSF. Florida Politics reported that Sabato's Crystal Ball and Fox News have made similar moves to Lean Republican.

No independent public poll of the district has been released, according to Florida Politics. The two surveys made public both came from the Democratic side, so they should be read with caution:

In the Bendixen & Amandi survey, conducted in English and Spanish with a margin of error of 4 percentage points, Rodriguez moved ahead 47% to 40% after respondents heard descriptions of each candidate. Pollster Fernand Amandi called the district "a pure toss-up" and said the numbers showed "an incumbent in real trouble." The Tulchin Research poll became public hours after Salazar's ad drew attention.

A district that has moved right

The 27th District lies entirely in Miami-Dade County and includes parts of Miami south of the Dolphin Expressway, along with Coral Gables, Pinecrest, Kendall, Palmetto Bay and Cutler Bay. Nearly three of every four residents are Hispanic. Trump defeated Kamala Harris there 57% to 43% in 2024, according to WUSF, and the Cook Partisan Voting Index rates the district R+6.

Salazar's own margins have grown with each election since she unseated Democrat Donna Shalala:

Taddeo, her 2022 opponent, is now the Democratic nominee for state chief financial officer. Salazar, a former correspondent and host for Univision, Telemundo and Mega TV, also lost to Shalala in 2018 before winning the seat two years later.

Money, endorsements and debates

Salazar entered the general election with a clear financial advantage. As of July 29, the date of the most recent Federal Election Commission filings cited by Newsweek, she had raised $1,999,399 and had $2,259,547 in cash on hand. Rodriguez had raised $661,173 and had $325,097 on hand.

Beyond Trump, Salazar's endorsements include Miami-Dade County Sheriff Rosie Cordero-Stutz, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the South Florida Police Benevolent Association and the South Florida Council of Firefighters, according to Florida Politics. Her campaign has also run a second general election ad focused on a bipartisan law targeting deepfake pornography that she championed.

Rodriguez has challenged Salazar to three October debates, two in English and one in Spanish. Florida Politics reported that three South Florida television stations invited both candidates and only Rodriguez accepted; Salazar's campaign has not agreed, and a strategist working for her signaled it would not.

What's next

Florida's voter registration deadline for the Nov. 3 general election is Monday, Oct. 5. The statewide early voting period runs at least from Oct. 24 through Oct. 31, and counties including Miami-Dade may offer additional days. Third-quarter campaign finance reports, covering fundraising through Sept. 30, are due to the Federal Election Commission on Oct. 15 and will offer the first look at whether the ad and the fallout from Trump's posts changed either candidate's fundraising.

Trump has not formally withdrawn his endorsement of Salazar. Whether he does, and whether Republican-leaning Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade reward or punish her break with the president, are the questions that will decide one of the most closely watched House races in Florida.