Anna Paulina Luna, Leela Gray Make Final Pitch in Florida's 13th District as Forecasters Rate Race Lean Republican

U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a St. Petersburg Republican seeking a third term, faces retired Army Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, a Democrat making her first run for office, in Florida's 13th Congressional District on Nov. 3. The Pinellas-based seat leans Republican on paper, but national Democrats have made it a target in their bid to win control of the U.S. House, and two major forecasters have moved it toward the competitive column this fall.

With a week to go, the race has centered on cost of living, Luna's record in Washington and a dispute over corruption allegations that Luna denies.

The district

Florida lawmakers approved new congressional maps for 2026 in a rare mid-decade redistricting. The redrawn 13th District keeps much of its Pinellas County footprint north of downtown St. Petersburg, drops parts of southern Pinellas and adds a portion of southern coastal Pasco County, according to WTSP and the Tampa Bay Times. Voters within the new lines backed President Donald Trump by more than 13 points in 2024, and FOX 13 reported the redraw moved the district about 1.5 points further toward Republicans. Its voters skew older, white and Republican, the Times reported.

Luna was first elected in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by nearly 10 points over Democrat Whitney Fox. Asked by WTSP whether the new lines worried her, she said, "No concern," adding, "At least not in my seat." Gray told the station that "the story is the same" regardless of where the lines fall.

The candidates

Luna, an Air Force veteran, is closely aligned with Trump on most issues, including tariffs and Iran policy. She has drawn national attention for pushing a ban on stock trading by members of Congress, a cap on credit card interest rates, penalties for lawmakers who commit sexual harassment and investigations into reported UFO encounters. She has called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the 2025 tax and spending law, the legislation she is happiest to have voted for, citing its tax provisions, FOX 13 reported. In her interview with WTSP, she said every member of Congress should be supporting the administration's peace deals and negotiations.

Gray spent more than 30 years in the Army and describes herself as a communications officer who countered terrorist propaganda. She holds degrees from Elon University, Ball State University, the U.S. Army War College and Stetson University College of Law. She has said she entered the race because of concerns about the country's direction and a lack of accountability in Washington, telling WTSP, "I didn't feel like I could sit on the sidelines and put my head in the sand."

Gray has built her campaign around affordability, pointing to housing, property and flood insurance, tariffs and the war with Iran, which she argues has pushed up gas prices. She has criticized the 2025 tax law's effects on Medicaid and SNAP food assistance and supports a middle-class tax cut and a ban on individual stock trades by members of Congress. She won the Aug. 18 Democratic primary with about 65% of the vote over Brandt Robinson and John Liccione, and is endorsed by EMILYs List.

The corruption fight

Both campaigns have run ads accusing the other of hypocrisy. In September, Luna released an ad criticizing Gray's investments in companies such as Nvidia, Alphabet and Pfizer; Gray's financial disclosures show those holdings are largely managed by a third party, Fisher Investments, the Times reported, and her campaign called the attack baseless.

Gray's ads accuse Luna of being part of a "culture of corruption" in Washington. They point to allegations from anonymous sources, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, that Luna gave a donor inside information about Trump's 2024 choice of JD Vance as his running mate so the donor could bet on it in a prediction market. Luna has strongly denied having that information, said she filed a criminal complaint with the federal agency that regulates betting markets alleging false reports were made about her, and publicized a Justice Department letter saying she is not under investigation by the department for insider trading.

Luna sent Gray's campaign a cease-and-desist letter over the ad and called Gray "a complete liar," saying the claim relied on "an edited headline from the Tampa Bay Times," according to WTSP. Asked whether the letter would change her approach, Gray said, "The record is the record."

Polls, money and ratings

Public polling of the district is limited and comes from partisan sources. A Democratic poll released in August showed Gray ahead by about five points, while Luna's campaign has pointed to an August Republican poll showing Gray behind. Luna responded on social media by pointing to a similar claim made by her 2024 opponent, who went on to lose. Neither internal poll should be treated as a reliable measure of the race.

Gray's campaign said it raised more than $1.4 million in the third quarter, about $900,000 of it in September, bringing her total to about $2.6 million, according to Florida Politics.

Forecasters have moved the race toward Democrats while still favoring Luna. Political ratings services rated the seat Likely Republican in September. The Cook Political Report later shifted it to Lean Republican, and on Oct. 27 the University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball moved it from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Kyle Kondik of the Crystal Ball told FOX 13 in September that Republicans remained favored.

Why it matters for Tampa Bay

The 13th District is one of the Florida House seats Democrats are targeting this year, and its result will be an early test of whether Trump's approval ratings, which the Times reported are underwater, weigh on Republicans closely tied to him. For Pinellas voters, the contest is also playing out alongside close statewide races for governor and U.S. Senate, plus the Amendment 3 property tax measure, issues that have dominated local conversations about housing and insurance costs.

Gray has challenged Luna to a televised debate; no debate has been held.

What's next

Early voting in Pinellas County runs through Sunday, Nov. 1, and in Pasco County through Saturday, Oct. 31. Mail ballots must be received by county supervisors of elections by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Nov. 3, when polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. As of Tuesday, Democrats held a lead of 2,754 ballots among Pinellas voters who had already cast ballots, according to a FOX 13 analysis of state data, though party registration does not show how people voted.