Ashley Moody Leads Angie Nixon 49% to 45% in Final St. Pete Polls Survey as Nixon's Cuba Comments Draw Scrutiny

U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody holds a 49% to 45% lead over Democrat Angie Nixon in the final St. Pete Polls survey of Florida's U.S. Senate race, released Wednesday by Florida Politics with six days to go before the Nov. 3 election. The four-point gap is Moody's widest in the pollster's three surveys of the race, but the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, and the pollster said the lead shrinks under turnout scenarios in which fewer Republicans vote.

The poll arrived as Nixon spent the final week fielding questions about her views on Cuba, after CBS News posted on social media that she had declined to say whether Cuba is a dictatorship and then deleted the post, saying it did not accurately portray her answer.

What the poll shows

St. Pete Polls has found a close race each time it has surveyed the contest for Florida Politics:

According to Florida Politics, the final sample was weighted to an electorate 12 points more Republican than Democratic. Nixon leads among respondents who have already voted, while Moody leads among those who have not. When the same responses were reweighted to a 10-point Republican edge, Moody led 48% to 45%. Weighted to the state's voter registration split, the race was 47% to 46%, well inside the margin of error.

Other polls and ratings

The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab's telephone poll of 1,471 likely voters, taken Oct. 12 to 19, also found Moody ahead 49% to 45%, with 5% undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 points. In July, UNF had Moody up 8. The UNF poll found Nixon leading independents by 15 points. A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 earlier in October showed a wider Moody lead, 50% to 40%.

On Oct. 27, the University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, saying Moody remains clearly favored. The Crystal Ball had moved the race to Safe Republican after Nixon won the August primary.

The Cuba controversy

In a CBS News interview, Nixon was asked what her message was to Cuban Americans and said she has been fighting the mass deportation of Cubans under President Donald Trump, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Asked in a follow-up whether Cuba is a dictatorship, she said that is what people have told her, that she has never been to Cuba, and that she would take their word for it.

CBS News posted Monday that Nixon had declined to say whether Cuba is a dictatorship, then deleted the post, saying it "did not accurately" portray her answer. By then the post had spread in a state with the largest Cuban exile community in the country. Several Democrats on the ballot, including attorney general nominee José Javier Rodríguez and Miami congressional candidate Eliott Rodriguez, posted statements calling Cuba's government a dictatorship. Republicans used the episode to renew their argument that Nixon is sympathetic to communism, a theme they have pressed throughout the campaign.

In a statement to the Times/Herald on Tuesday, Nixon said she has repeatedly said the Cuban people live under a dictatorship and that she has never wavered in her support for the Cuban community. Earlier this month, she told Univision Miami that she would "absolutely" consider Cuba a dictatorship, while also criticizing the U.S. embargo. Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia of Miami, a Cuban American, called the reaction manufactured outrage. Nixon has said her approach to Cuba policy is closer to that of former President Barack Obama.

Nixon, a state representative from Jacksonville, is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. She has said she does not support all of the group's positions and does not believe Fidel Castro should be celebrated.

Campaigning in Central Florida

Nixon has focused much of her closing push on the Interstate 4 corridor. On Sunday, Oct. 25, she rallied supporters at Macedonia Missionary Baptist Church in Eatonville, telling the crowd, "We can win. We will win," according to WKMG News 6. She returned to Orlando on Tuesday. Earlier in October she courted young voters at the University of Central Florida with U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut and held a town hall with Walt Disney World workers on Oct. 21. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders also campaigned with her in Central and North Florida.

Moody appeared with Trump at his Oct. 23 rally in Fort Myers and joined Republican governor nominee Byron Donalds in Clearwater the next day. Voters interviewed by WKMG at the Central Florida events said cost of living, gas prices and the Amendment 3 property tax measure were their top concerns.

Endorsements, ads and debates

Obama endorsed Nixon in a video released Oct. 24, saying she has spent her career standing up for voters and predicting she would be an outstanding senator, according to The Hill. Moody is endorsed by Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, among others.

Moody's campaign has hit Nixon over her opposition to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the 2025 federal tax and spending law. A Moody ad set in a diner says Nixon backed a $4 trillion tax hike on everyone. PolitiFact Florida rated the claim Half True, finding that full repeal of the law would raise taxes by roughly that amount but that Nixon's campaign says she would keep the law's tax breaks on tips and for older Americans and repeal only provisions that benefit the wealthy and corporations.

There have been no debates. Moody declined to debate Nixon in September, citing Nixon's ties to the Democratic Socialists; Nixon has said she is willing to debate.

How the race got here

The election is a special election to fill the rest of the term Marco Rubio won in 2022. Rubio resigned in January 2025 to become secretary of state, and DeSantis appointed Moody, then Florida's attorney general, to the seat. The winner will serve until the seat is up for a full six-year term in 2028.

Nixon won the Aug. 18 Democratic primary with about 56% of the vote, defeating former National Security Council official Alex Vindman, who had a large fundraising advantage.

What's next

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Early voting runs through at least Oct. 31 in every county and through Nov. 1 in many large counties. Mail ballots must reach county elections offices by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Both campaigns are pushing turnout in the final days, with the polling suggesting the size of Moody's margin depends heavily on how many Republicans vote on Tuesday.