Cook Political Report Moves FL-25 Toward Jared Moskowitz as Scott Singer Race Draws $14 Million in GOP Spending

The Cook Political Report on Friday moved the race for Florida's 25th Congressional District from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democratic," making it the third national forecaster to shift the contest toward U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz in recent weeks. Moskowitz, a Democrat, is running in a newly drawn, Republican-leaning coastal district against former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, and Cook's analysts said the race has not tightened despite roughly $14 million in Republican spending since Labor Day.

The district, which runs from Palm Beach County through Broward and into Miami-Dade's barrier islands, is expected to be one of the most expensive House races in the country and could help decide which party controls the House after the Nov. 3 election.

The ratings shift

Cook updated its outlook for 11 congressional races on Friday, moving all of them toward Democrats, according to Florida Politics. The FL-25 change matched a move by Sabato's Crystal Ball the week before and by Fox News in September.

"Despite heavy spending in this district from Republicans since Labor Day, $14 million, per AdImpact, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz has maintained his edge over former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer," wrote Erin Covey, Cook's U.S. House editor. She said both candidates are "getting hammered by ads painting them as out-of-touch politicians," with Republicans attacking Moskowitz over his stock trading and Democrats targeting Singer over a controversial real estate development plan in Boca Raton. "But while the barrage of GOP ads may have kept Moskowitz from opening up a larger lead, the race doesn't appear to have tightened, so we're shifting it," Covey wrote.

Covey noted that Jewish voters make up roughly a quarter of the electorate and have trended rightward in recent years, but said Moskowitz's strong support for Israel puts him in a good position with them. Hispanic voters, about another quarter of the electorate, have swung back toward Democrats this cycle, she wrote.

A district redrawn for Republicans

The Republican-led Legislature redrew Florida's congressional map this spring in a mid-decade redistricting proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis on April 27, passed in a special session two days later and signed May 4. Lawsuits under the state's Fair Districts amendment are pending, but the map is in effect for this election.

The new 25th District is a coastal ribbon from Delray Beach in Palm Beach County through Broward County and into Miami-Dade's barrier islands. Trump carried that territory by roughly 9 percentage points in 2024. Republicans make up 35.6% of the district's registered voters, Democrats 30.4%, and voters with a minor party or no party affiliation 34%, according to the latest Division of Elections figures cited by Florida Politics.

Moskowitz has represented the 23rd District for nearly four years, but that seat was reconfigured, and in May he announced he would run in the 25th instead. "The new district they drew has 50% of my old district in it, but obviously they drew these districts in the cover of night. They did it in two days," Moskowitz told WPLG Local 10. He said he has represented Palm Beach and Broward before and, although he has never represented the Miami-Dade coast, worked there extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic as director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

Two familiar faces

Before Congress, Moskowitz served in the Florida House and on the Broward County Commission and led the state's emergency management agency through the early pandemic and multiple hurricanes. He won his August primary with more than 63% of the vote over Democratic Socialist Oliver Larkin.

Singer served eight years as mayor of Boca Raton. He took 31% of the vote to win a five-way Republican primary and was endorsed by President Donald Trump last month, according to Local 10. "I want to go to Washington as a fresh voice," Singer said.

Also on the ballot are Libertarian Peter Jassenoff and write-in candidate Michaelangelo Hamilton. Both the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have flagged the district for spending, and Florida Politics ranks it first among 11 South Florida races to watch.

Affordability versus spending cuts

Moskowitz is centering his campaign on health care and living costs. "We need to go back to Congress, and we need to focus on lowering the cost of health care," he said. "We can do that by returning the Affordable Care Act subsidies that were cut by the Republicans." He blamed the wars in Ukraine and Iran for driving up energy and diesel costs, which he said push up prices across the economy, and argued that his opponent "doesn't want to change anything."

Singer is running on his record at City Hall. "As mayor, I balanced the budget every year, lowered taxes, and we increased reserves," he said. He said he would focus on cutting wasteful federal spending and lowering taxes. "The easiest way to put more in people's pockets is for the government to spend less," Singer said. He also said the federal government, as the largest purchaser of Medicare and Medicaid services, should hold health insurers accountable through price transparency.

Singer's tax-cut claim under scrutiny

Singer's new ad, "Seven Times," says he cut tax rates seven times as mayor. City budget documents show the total millage rate did fall, from 3.6787 in his first year to 3.6649 in his last, according to a Florida Politics review. But because property values climbed, Boca Raton's property tax revenue grew from about $66.4 million in fiscal year 2018 to almost $121 million in fiscal year 2026, an increase of nearly 82%, far outpacing population growth. In most of Singer's years, the city did not adopt the rollback rate, the rate that would raise the same revenue as the year before, so most homeowners paid more.

Singer's campaign defended the record, saying the city's tax rate went down consistently, that the city does not control property appraisals and that the budget grew more slowly than the state's during his tenure. The argument mirrors the debate over Amendment 3, the Legislature's property tax measure on the November ballot, which would raise the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028.

What's next

The two candidates have together raised more than $5 million and spent more than $3 million, according to Local 10, and outside spending is expected to keep climbing. Early voting begins Monday, Oct. 19, in Broward, Miami-Dade and other large counties and must be offered in every county by Oct. 24. The deadline to request a mail ballot is 5 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 22. Trump's rally in Fort Myers on Oct. 23 is part of a Republican push to energize voters for challengers including Singer, while Democrats are working to hold a seat that national forecasters now give Moskowitz the edge to keep on Election Day, Nov. 3.