Florida unemployment rate falls to 4.4% in September, fourth straight monthly decline

Florida's unemployment rate slipped to 4.4% in September, down one tenth of a percentage point from August and the fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to figures released Friday by the Florida Department of Commerce. The seasonally adjusted rate reflects an estimated 489,000 unemployed Floridians in a labor force of about 11.1 million.

The steady drift lower comes after the state's jobless rate climbed for roughly two years and peaked at 4.8% in May. Even so, Florida remains above the national rate: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month that the national unemployment rate was 4.2% in September, when employers nationwide added just 29,000 jobs.

The September numbers

The number of unemployed Floridians fell by about 1,000 from August, according to the state report as summarized by the News Service of Florida, carried by WUSF and WLRN. Over the year, however, the count of unemployed people is up by 28,000, while the labor force grew by 21,000. In other words, the improvement has been gradual and month to month, while the year-over-year picture still shows more Floridians looking for work than a year ago.

Here is how the headline figures compare with August, based on the state's monthly releases as reported by WUSF:

The August unemployed count above is the figure first reported last month; the state said September's total was 1,000 lower than August, which suggests the August estimate has since been revised. Monthly state figures are routinely revised as more data arrive.

Where the jobs are growing

Health care remains the engine of Florida's job growth. The education and health services sector added 40,300 jobs over the past year, and almost all of those gains came in health care and social assistance, according to the report. Leisure and hospitality, the industry most associated with Florida's tourism economy, added 16,800 jobs over 12 months.

Transportation and utilities added 8,300 positions over the year. Construction was up 3,300 jobs and manufacturing gained 2,100.

The losses were concentrated in white-collar and public-sector work. Financial activities shed 15,800 jobs over the year, with bigger losses in finance and insurance than in real estate. Government employment, mostly at the state and federal levels, fell by 8,900, and the information sector lost 3,600 workers.

Metro areas: South Florida lowest, The Villages highest

South Florida continues to post the state's lowest unemployment. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area was at 3.2% in September, down from 3.7% in August. Metro area rates are not seasonally adjusted, while the statewide rate is, so the local figures can swing more from month to month.

The Wildwood area, which includes The Villages, again had the highest rate in the state at 7.6%. Sebring and Homosassa Springs were both at 6.3%, and Lakeland was at 5.2%.

Most metros improved from August, when Orlando stood at 4.6%, Tampa-St. Petersburg at 4.7%, Jacksonville at 4.8% and Wildwood at 7.9%. The Panhandle figures were collected before Hurricane Isaias arrived on Oct. 9, so any storm-related job disruption would not show up until the October report.

Small businesses say uncertainty is rising

The improving rate comes as Florida employers describe a more guarded mood. On Thursday, the National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Uncertainty Index remained well above its historical average, and that labor quality or availability was the top concern of small business owners for the third consecutive month.

"Florida's small business owners continue to demonstrate resilience, but growing economic uncertainty is making it more difficult to plan for the future," NFIB Florida executive director Bill Herrle said in a statement. "With labor quality and availability remaining a top concern and rising fuel costs, many employers are taking a more cautious approach making business decisions."

What state economists expect

State forecasters have cautioned that the recent improvement may not last. When the August numbers came out last month, WUSF reported that the Legislature's Economic Estimating Conference expected the jobless rate to rise to 4.9% in the current fiscal year before falling to 4.7% in Fiscal Year 2027-28 and settling near 4.1% toward the end of the forecast horizon. The conference puts "full employment" for Florida at around 4%.

Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research, told the Joint Legislative Budget Commission in September that state economists expect employment growth to mostly stay under 1% a year, while average annual wages grow 4% or more over the next four years. Part of that wage growth is tied to the voter-approved constitutional amendment that raised Florida's minimum wage to $15 an hour on Sept. 30, or $11.98 for tipped workers. Future increases will be tied to inflation.

How Florida compares with the nation

Florida's rate has been above the national average all year. Nationally, September's jobs report was weak: the Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000 and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in August. The bureau also revised its July and August payroll estimates lower. Florida's rate moved in the opposite direction in September, narrowing the gap with the national figure to two tenths of a point.

What's next

The Department of Commerce is scheduled to release October figures next month. That report will be the first to reflect any job disruption from Hurricane Isaias in the Panhandle, and it will show whether the state's four-month streak of small declines continues or whether the uptick state economists have forecast begins to appear. Floridians looking for work can find job listings and training programs through the state's CareerSource Florida network and the Employ Florida job board.