Hurricane Center Gives Atlantic Low Near Cabo Verde a 20% Chance as Florida Gets a Break After Isaias

The National Hurricane Center is watching a sprawling area of low pressure a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, far off the coast of Africa, but the system poses no threat to Florida and has only a low chance of becoming a tropical depression before hostile winds shut it down. In its 8 a.m. EDT outlook Monday, Oct. 12, the hurricane center gave the disturbance a 20% chance of forming over the next 48 hours and the same 20% chance over seven days.

There are no tropical cyclones anywhere in the Atlantic basin Monday, three days after Hurricane Isaias came ashore near Destin. The quiet start to the week arrives with about seven weeks left in a hurricane season that ends Nov. 30, and with the part of the calendar when Florida's risk historically shifts closer to home.

What the hurricane center is watching

According to the NHC outlook, the elongated low is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, mostly on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Forecasters said environmental conditions appear "at best, marginally conducive" for development over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for further development.

The main impact is local to the islands. The hurricane center said heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across the western Cabo Verde Islands, where some flooding is possible as the system drifts slowly north to north-northwest. That track, combined with the expected strong upper winds, points the system away from the Caribbean and the United States.

FOX 13 Tampa Bay meteorologists described the same setup Monday morning: somewhat supportive conditions for a day or two, followed by strong upper-level winds. The station noted that roughly 27% of the Atlantic season remains.

Why late-season storms matter more for Florida

An eastern Atlantic disturbance in mid-October is not the pattern Florida forecasters worry about most. According to a climatology summary from the National Weather Service office in Tampa Bay, the season's main peak falls around Sept. 10, with a secondary peak around the middle of October that is mainly for the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf. As October arrives, Atlantic waters begin to cool and wind shear increases, so most tropical activity shifts back to the Caribbean and Gulf, where water temperatures are usually still very warm.

Those October storms, the weather service says, typically form in the Caribbean or Gulf and move north and then northeast as they are picked up by eastward-moving troughs, a setup that can often bring them close to the Florida peninsula. The Tampa Bay office counted 17 tropical cyclones that made landfall within 50 nautical miles of Tampa in October and November through 2010, and all but a few originated in the Caribbean or Gulf.

Floridians have seen that pattern recently. Hurricane Michael struck Mexico Beach in October 2018, and Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key in October 2024. Isaias, which formed in the southern Gulf on Oct. 6 and reached the Panhandle three days later, fit the same late-season mold.

The Cabo Verde system is the opposite case: a disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic, heading north into an increasingly unfavorable environment, thousands of miles from Florida.

A historically slow season, until Isaias

The 2026 season has been unusually quiet, a result forecasters tied to a strong El Niño, which increases wind shear over the Atlantic. In its Aug. 6 update, NOAA called for a below-normal season of 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes, and put the chance of a below-normal season at 75%. NOAA noted that every strong El Niño since 1950 has been associated with a below-normal Atlantic season. Colorado State University's final update forecast 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane.

So far the season has produced nine named storms, only one of which became a hurricane. Isaias became a hurricane in the Gulf late on Oct. 7, the latest date for an Atlantic season's first hurricane in more than a century; according to NOAA data cited by several outlets, it came just short of the record of Oct. 8, set in 1905. It went on to become a Category 3 major hurricane with 120 mph winds on Oct. 9 before weakening and making landfall near Destin as a Category 2 that night.

The season's named storms to date are listed below.

For comparison, the hurricane center's 1991 to 2020 climatology shows an average season reaching its 12th named storm by Oct. 11, its sixth hurricane by Oct. 15 and its third major hurricane by Oct. 28. An average full season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The next name on the 2026 list is Josephine.

Florida's weather this week

Closer to home, a weak cold front is easing down the peninsula Monday, bringing drier air and lower humidity to much of the state, though the break will be brief in the south. National Weather Service forecasts by region:

The heat is a concern in the Panhandle, where thousands of Isaias-affected customers remain without power. The weather service office in Mobile, which covers the Pensacola area, said record to near-record highs this week, with little cloud cover, could raise the risk of heat-related illness, and urged people working on recovery to take frequent breaks in the shade and drink plenty of water. The office said the record high for Mobile on Oct. 12 is 89 degrees, and Monday's forecast called for 91.

In South Florida, WPLG Local 10 forecasters said Monday stays hot and humid, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and a chance of isolated showers, before the front brings a north breeze and slightly lower humidity Tuesday, with lows in the mid-70s. The drier air is expected to last only a day or two before an onshore breeze brings moisture and shower chances back for the weekend.

Coastal hazards linger along parts of the state. The Miami weather service office said minor coastal flooding remains possible at high tide along South Florida's Gulf coast Monday, and the Key West office kept a coastal flood statement in effect for saltwater ponding in low-lying areas. The Melbourne and Jacksonville offices flagged a moderate rip current risk at Atlantic beaches, and Jacksonville noted minor tidal flooding continuing through Monday along portions of the St. Johns River basin.

Looking further out, the Tallahassee office said a pattern change may bring the region's first significant cold front of the season by next weekend, and the Mobile office said a front late in the week could drop highs into the 70s.

What's next

The hurricane center issues updated tropical weather outlooks every six hours, and Floridians should expect the Cabo Verde system to fade from the outlook within a few days if upper-level winds strengthen as forecast. With Isaias gone and no other areas of interest, the more relevant watch for Florida over the rest of October is the western Caribbean and Gulf, the late-season breeding grounds that produced Michael, Milton and now Isaias. The season officially ends Nov. 30.