Lakeland and Jacksonville top U.S. list as property taxes outpace home values in Florida metros

Florida metro areas dominate a new national ranking of places where property taxes climbed faster than home values, with Lakeland-Winter Haven at No. 1 and Jacksonville at No. 2 among the nation's 100 largest metros. The analysis by ConsumerAffairs, based on U.S. Census Bureau data from 2022 to 2024, puts three Florida metros in the top 10 and nine in the top 50, one week before voters decide on Amendment 3, a constitutional amendment that would sharply cut property taxes on homesteads.

In Lakeland-Winter Haven, median property taxes rose 28.1% over the two years while median home values rose 14.2%, a gap of roughly 14 percentage points. In Jacksonville, the typical property tax bill rose 21.7% while median home values rose 8.1%, a gap of 13.6 points. "No metro pulled further ahead than Lakeland-Winter Haven," the report said.

How the study worked

ConsumerAffairs, a consumer research and reviews company, compared the percentage change in median property taxes paid with the percentage change in median home values in each of the 100 largest U.S. metro areas, then ranked metros by the size of the gap. It used American Community Survey one-year estimates from the Census Bureau, and 2022 to 2024 was the most recent comparable two-year period available.

The figures are metro-wide medians. They do not track what any individual homeowner paid or changes in local tax rates, and the researchers noted that changes to Census metro boundaries could affect some comparisons, according to WFTV's account of the methodology.

Florida's metros in the ranking

Florida placed nine metros in the top 50, according to the rankings published by WKMG News 6:

"Florida has three metros in the top 10, while Colorado and California each have two," the report said. All 10 metros with the widest gaps were in the South or the West.

A break from the national trend

Nationally, the pattern ran the other way. Median home values across the U.S. rose 12.4% from 2022 to 2024, while median property taxes rose 10.6%. Property taxes outpaced home values in 46 of the 100 metros studied.

The Florida gaps also look new. Over the longer 2019 to 2024 period, Lakeland-Winter Haven's property taxes rose 78.6% and home values 74.1%, a gap of just 4.5 points. In Jacksonville, home values actually outran taxes over those five years, rising 63.1% against 44.9% for taxes. "So the divergence looks new, not like a trend that's been building for a while," the report said.

Why Jacksonville's gap opened

The timing reflects how the Jacksonville market cooled. Home values in the area rose by double digits in 2021 and 2022, then slowed in 2023 as 30-year mortgage rates climbed to around 7%, according to a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development market analysis cited in the report.

Florida's property tax system helps explain why tax bills can keep rising after prices stall. The Save Our Homes cap limits annual increases in a homestead's assessed value to 3% or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower, and non-homestead properties such as rentals and second homes are capped at 10% a year for non-school taxes. When market values jump faster than those caps, a gap opens between a property's market value and its taxable value, and assessments can keep climbing toward market value in later years even if prices flatten. New buyers, meanwhile, start paying taxes on the full purchase price.

Amendment 3 on the Nov. 3 ballot

The study arrives as Floridians weigh the biggest property tax change on the ballot in years. Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes from $50,000 to $150,000 starting in 2027 and $250,000 starting in 2028, with inflation adjustments after that. School taxes would not be affected. The amendment would also cut the annual assessment cap on non-homestead property from 10% to 5%.

People who are not Florida residents as of Dec. 31, 2026, would receive the current exemption when they first qualify and the larger exemption only starting in their fifth year of homestead eligibility, if allowed under the U.S. Constitution.

Like all constitutional amendments in Florida, it needs 60% of the vote to pass. A University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll of 1,471 likely voters, conducted Oct. 12 to 19, found 50% planned to vote yes, 30% no and 14% undecided, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 percentage points. Other recent polls have pointed in different directions: a roundup of three surveys released the same week found support ranging from 42% to 63%, and a poll for Associated Industries of Florida, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates among 800 likely voters from Sept. 28 to Oct. 1, found voters turned against the proposal once they heard the full ballot language.

Supporters, including Florida Realtors and Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has hosted an event backing the measure, argue the measure offers homeowners relief from rising bills. The Florida Democratic Party, city and county governments and public safety groups oppose it, warning about the effect on local budgets that pay for police, fire and other services. Attorney General James Uthmeier released a revised ballot title and summary after a Leon County circuit court ruling found portions of the original language misleading; the text of the amendment itself did not change.

What's next

Early voting is underway across Florida ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3. If Amendment 3 passes, the first increase in the homestead exemption would take effect Jan. 1, 2027, and show up on that year's tax bills. If it fails, the existing caps and the $50,000 non-school exemption remain in place, and the gap between rising tax bills and slowing home prices identified in the ConsumerAffairs study will remain a central issue for local governments setting millage rates next summer.