Moody Holds Polling Lead Over Nixon as Florida Senate Race Enters Final Stretch

Florida voters will decide on November 3 who serves the remainder of a United States Senate term that has been filled by appointment since early 2025, and with roughly eight weeks left the public polling points in one direction. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis after Marco Rubio was confirmed as secretary of state, leads Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon by high single digits in the available surveys. A University of North Florida poll of 848 likely voters conducted in July found Moody ahead 50 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Polling averages compiled since then have shown a similar gap.

How the seat became vacant

Marco Rubio was confirmed as United States secretary of state on January 20, 2025, after being nominated by President Donald Trump. His confirmation created a vacancy in the Senate seat he had held since 2011 and to which he had been reelected in 2022 by roughly 17 points.

Under Florida law and the Seventeenth Amendment framework, the governor appoints a replacement to serve until a special election can be held. DeSantis appointed Ashley Moody, who was then serving as Florida attorney general, a position she had won statewide in 2018 and held through reelection in 2022.

The special election on November 3, 2026, will fill the remainder of the term Rubio won in 2022, which runs through January 2029. The winner will then face a regular election in 2028 if they choose to seek a full term.

Because the vacancy is being filled through a special election concurrent with the regular midterm cycle, Florida voters will be casting ballots for two Senate contests worth of attention in a single year, alongside the governor's race and the full congressional delegation.

The candidates

Moody built her public profile as attorney general, where she led Florida's participation in multistate litigation, oversaw consumer protection enforcement and directed the Office of Statewide Prosecution. Her tenure included high-profile actions on opioid settlements, human trafficking and public corruption cases.

She entered the Senate with statewide name recognition already established, an unusual advantage for an appointed senator. Appointed senators historically underperform in their first election because voters do not know them, a problem Moody largely does not have.

Angie Nixon is a state representative from Jacksonville who has served in the Florida House since 2020. She built a reputation as one of the chamber's more forceful progressive voices, particularly on redistricting, voting rights and social spending, and she has been a visible critic of the DeSantis administration's legislative agenda.

Nixon won her party's nomination in a contested primary field. Her candidacy represents a departure from the moderate profile Florida Democrats have often run statewide, a strategic choice her campaign has defended as necessary to generate turnout in a state where Democratic performance has eroded.

What the polling shows

The University of North Florida survey conducted July 8 to 17 among 848 likely voters found Moody at 50 percent and Nixon at 42 percent. UNF's Public Opinion Research Laboratory is one of the more established academic pollsters operating in Florida.

Polling averages have shown Moody leading by roughly 9 to 10 points, with her share in the high 40s to low 50s and Nixon in the high 30s to low 40s. Forecast models built on those averages have given Moody a strong favorite's position.

Two caveats apply to all of this. First, most public polling in the race predates Labor Day, when many general election voters begin paying attention. Second, Florida has been a difficult state to poll accurately, with surveys in recent cycles frequently understating Republican performance rather than overstating it.

That second point cuts against the argument that the race is closer than it appears. If Florida polling errors continue in the direction they have run since 2018, the actual margin would be wider than the surveys show rather than narrower.

Florida's changed political landscape

Florida spent two decades as the archetypal swing state, decided by roughly one point in three consecutive presidential elections. That era ended. Republicans now hold a substantial voter registration advantage statewide after Democrats led in registration for generations.

The shift has been driven by several converging factors: population inflows from other states that skew Republican, gains among Hispanic voters particularly in Miami-Dade County, Democratic organizational decline and a sustained Republican investment in registration and turnout infrastructure.

Statewide Democratic candidates have not won a Florida race since 2018, and margins in the intervening cycles have widened rather than narrowed. Both of Florida's Senate seats, the governorship and every Cabinet office are held by Republicans.

That environment shapes what a competitive Democratic campaign looks like in Florida. Nixon's path requires substantially elevated turnout among constituencies that vote inconsistently in midterm years, combined with defections or abstentions among Republican-leaning voters.

The issues in play

Property insurance remains the most reliably salient issue in Florida politics, cutting across party lines because premiums affect nearly every homeowner. Republicans point to falling rates in 2026, with Citizens Property Insurance reducing multiperil rates by an average of 8.8 percent and decreases recorded in 51 of 67 counties, as evidence that reform legislation worked. Democrats argue that rates remain far above the national average and that reforms favored insurers over policyholders.

Immigration is the second dominant theme. Florida's state-level enforcement partnership with federal authorities, the Everglades detention facility and the associated spending have become defining issues. The Division of Emergency Management's request for roughly $250 million in additional funding, most of it tied to immigration costs, has given Democrats a fiscal line of attack alongside the humanitarian one.

Housing affordability, the cost of living and health care access round out the issue set. Florida has not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, which Democrats raise regularly and which Republicans defend as fiscally prudent.

Nixon has also sought to attach Moody to allegations surrounding state spending oversight, a line of attack that has appeared in national coverage of the race. Moody's campaign has rejected the framing.

What it means for Floridians

The seat carries real weight regardless of the margin. A United States senator from Florida sits at the intersection of the state's most consequential federal issues: disaster funding through FEMA, flood insurance program reauthorization, immigration policy, Cuba and Venezuela policy, NASA and commercial space authorization affecting the Space Coast, and military installations from Pensacola to Key West.

Florida's delegation also has outsized influence on any federal response to the property insurance market. Proposals for a federal catastrophe reinsurance backstop surface periodically, and Florida senators are central to whether such measures advance.

The state's relationship with FEMA is another practical matter. Florida routinely leads the nation in disaster declarations, and reimbursement disputes, including the current gap between the $608 million detention support grant approved for Florida and the roughly $85 million actually disbursed, run through congressional oversight.

Whoever wins will hold the seat through January 2029 and will be positioned as the incumbent in the 2028 cycle.

The rest of the Florida ballot

The Senate special election is not the only contest on Florida ballots this November. Voters will also decide the governorship, the state Cabinet offices including attorney general, all 28 congressional districts and a substantial share of the Legislature.

The attorney general race carries particular relevance because that office became open when Moody was appointed to the Senate. Florida's attorney general leads the state's participation in multistate litigation, directs the Office of Statewide Prosecution and shapes consumer protection enforcement.

Congressional races matter for Florida's influence in Washington. The state's delegation is one of the largest in the House, and committee assignments held by Florida members affect everything from disaster funding to space policy to Everglades restoration appropriations.

Down-ballot contests, including school board and county commission races, frequently draw less attention while having more direct effect on daily life. Turnout in those races is consistently lower than at the top of the ticket even though the ballots are cast at the same time.

Turnout is the whole game

Midterm elections in Florida draw substantially fewer voters than presidential years, and the composition of the electorate shifts accordingly. Older voters and habitual voters make up a larger share, while younger and less frequent voters participate at lower rates.

That composition change has generally favored Republicans in Florida in recent cycles, which is part of why Democratic strategists focus on mobilization rather than persuasion. Nixon's path depends on turning out voters who do not reliably participate in non-presidential years.

Vote by mail has been a moving target in Florida. The state ended automatic renewal of standing mail ballot requests, which means voters must actively request a ballot for each election cycle. That change reduced mail ballot volume and shifted more voting to early in-person and Election Day.

Early voting periods are set by county supervisors of elections within the range state law allows, so start dates and hours vary by county. Voters should check their own county's schedule rather than assuming a statewide standard.

What's next

Early voting periods and vote-by-mail deadlines will be set by county supervisors of elections within the windows state law establishes. Florida voters who want a mail ballot must request one, since the state ended automatic renewal of standing mail ballot requests.

Debates, if the campaigns agree to them, would typically occur in October. Appointed incumbents leading comfortably often limit debate exposure, and whether Moody agrees to face Nixon on a shared stage will be a signal about how the campaign reads its own position.

Fundraising reports filed in October will provide the clearest independent read on the race's competitiveness. If national Democratic committees put money into Florida late, they see something. If they do not, the polling is telling the whole story.

Floridians can verify registration status, find their polling place and check mail ballot deadlines through their county supervisor of elections office, which is the authoritative source for all election administration questions.