Trump's Russian Diesel Deal Unlikely to Ease Florida's Near-$6 Fuel Bills, Experts Say

President Donald Trump said Friday he had struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to send Russian diesel into U.S. and global markets, a sharp reversal of American sanctions policy that energy experts say is unlikely to do much for Florida truckers, farmers and storm-weary Panhandle residents paying close to $6 a gallon. Florida's average diesel price stood at about $5.90 a gallon as of Oct. 9, according to AAA's state averages, while the national average set a record of more than $6.52 in late September.

The announcement came weeks before the November midterm elections and as Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall near Destin on Friday night, forced a large share of Gulf offshore oil production offline and closed two Panhandle ports.

What Trump announced

Trump said on social media Friday, after a phone call with Putin, that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons "immediately thereafter," the Associated Press reported. Russia would then deliver another 3 million tons "within a short period of time," Trump wrote.

The U.S. Treasury Department moved the same day to make the purchases legal. Its Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135, which temporarily authorizes transactions for the sale, delivery, offloading and import of Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States, through April 7, 2027, according to reports on the license. Analysts noted the license does not name a buyer, a supplier or a vessel and sets no cap on volume.

The move cuts against recent policy. The United States has not imported Russian oil or gas since 2022, when the Biden administration banned those imports after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Trump signed a sweeping Russia sanctions law last month aimed at Moscow's energy economy, the AP reported. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the arrangement "a weak decision," and the deal drew criticism from members of both parties in Congress.

Why experts doubt it will lower prices

Energy analysts quoted by the AP and other outlets were skeptical that Russian diesel would change much at the pump. The first shipments add up to about 6 million barrels, which would cover roughly a day and a half of U.S. demand, according to an AP analysis using U.S. Energy Information Administration figures.

Clayton Seigle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the deal would probably not move U.S. diesel prices much but would benefit Russia. Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Foundation compared it to rearranging deck chairs, arguing that Russia's current customers would simply buy elsewhere and that the most to hope for was a small local dip in the Northeast. Former U.S. officials also questioned whether Russia has the diesel to sell after Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries.

Diesel has been squeezed worldwide. The war involving Iran has restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged refining and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, while Ukrainian attacks have cut Russian refinery output. AAA's national diesel average hit a record of about $6.53 a gallon on Sept. 22 and had eased to about $6.30 by Oct. 7, more than 70% above the $3.68 of a year earlier.

Florida's fuel lifeline runs by sea

Florida feels supply shocks more than most states because it has no refineries and no gasoline pipelines connecting it to other states, according to the EIA. Nearly all of its gasoline, diesel and jet fuel arrives by tanker and barge, most of it from Gulf Coast refineries in Texas and Louisiana, supplemented by imports.

Port Tampa Bay is the largest entry point, handling nearly half of the state's petroleum and refined products, the EIA has reported. South Florida is supplied largely by trucks loading at terminals in Port Everglades. This year, an emergency federal waiver of the Jones Act allowed foreign-flagged tankers to move fuel between U.S. ports, and gCaptain reported that foreign tankers had been carrying gasoline, diesel and other fuels from Texas and Louisiana to Florida and other markets.

Any Russian diesel is more likely to land in the Northeast, which has historically relied more on imported diesel and heating oil, than in Florida, which buys mostly from Gulf Coast refiners. No delivery ports for Russian cargoes had been announced as of Saturday.

Isaias adds to the pressure

Hurricane Isaias added a near-term strain. Federal offshore regulators reported Thursday that operators had shut in about 62.9% of Gulf oil production, roughly 1.28 million barrels a day, and about 57% of natural gas output, according to gCaptain and Maritime Executive. About a third of manned production platforms, 121 of 371, had been evacuated.

Closer to home, the state said Friday that the Port of Pensacola and Port Panama City had closed waterside and landside operations ahead of the storm, while Florida's other seaports remained open. The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services said it was working with fuel industry partners to keep supplies flowing statewide and was preparing fuel inspectors for deployment after the storm. The Florida Highway Patrol has been escorting fuel trucks, and a state executive order waived size and weight limits for trucks hauling fuel and emergency supplies.

Diesel matters more than usual after a hurricane. It runs the backup generators that keep hospitals, water and sewer plants and cell sites working when the grid is down, along with the bucket trucks, debris haulers and heavy equipment that clear roads and restore power.

Truckers and farmers already squeezed

Florida's diesel prices have climbed with the national surge. CBS News Miami reported in late September that the statewide average reached $6.34 a gallon. AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins told the station that rising transportation costs often push up what shoppers pay for goods and services, since nearly everything on Florida shelves moves by truck.

Agriculture has been hit hard. A July report from the minority staff of Congress's Joint Economic Committee found Florida had the largest percentage increase in planting-season diesel costs of any state, 90.6%. Spectrum News reported in September that Central Florida growers were absorbing higher fuel costs because they sell at market prices they cannot raise.

Earlier this week, Trump signed an executive order temporarily allowing cheaper red-dyed diesel, normally reserved for farm and off-road use, to be used more broadly and deferring the roughly 24-cent federal diesel tax through the end of the year. Todd Spencer, president of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, said that change would likely do little for small truckers who pay for fuel up front, and many farmers had already finished their harvests, according to news reports.

What's next

The first test of the deal is whether Russian cargoes actually load and sail. Analysts have said neither Trump's announcement nor the Treasury license shows that commercial contracts have been signed. In Florida, the more immediate price driver will be how quickly Gulf offshore platforms, Gulf Coast refineries and the Pensacola and Panama City ports return to normal after Isaias. Drivers can track daily state and metro averages on AAA's fuel price site.