Darren Soto Leads Dan Green by About 1,400 Votes in Florida's Redrawn 9th District, Just Outside Recount Range

U.S. Rep. Darren Soto is holding a lead of about 1,400 votes over Republican Dan Green in Florida's redrawn 9th Congressional District. As of Thursday the margin was 0.52%, just above the 0.5% line that triggers an automatic machine recount under state law. Osceola County, one of the district's seven counties, was required to send its results to the state by the end of business Friday. Whether the race goes to a recount now depends on the state's review of those returns, and the margin is slim enough that a handful of late ballots could change the answer.

Where the count stands

On election night, with about 99% of votes reported, Soto led Green 143,174 to 141,697, a 1,477-vote edge that works out to 50.26% to 49.74%, according to unofficial state tallies reported by multiple outlets. The Associated Press called the race too close to call.

By Thursday, Nov. 5, the gap had narrowed to just over 1,400 votes, or 0.52%, WKMG News 6 reported. Central Florida Public Media had calculated earlier in the week that the race was about 53 votes short of the automatic recount threshold.

Soto's campaign estimated that several hundred ballots remained, mostly in Orange and Osceola counties. Those included provisional ballots, mail ballots that needed signature fixes, and military and overseas ballots, which can arrive up to 10 days after the election.

Osceola County's role

Osceola County, where Soto held his election night party in Kissimmee, audited its results Thursday, News 6 reported. Supervisor of Elections Mary Jane Arrington told the station, "Right now it is outside of the threshold for a recount." She noted that Osceola is only one of the seven counties in the district, so the picture could change.

Kari Ewalt of the Osceola County elections office told Central Florida Public Media earlier in the week, "This is very close, so it's possible that it'll trigger a recount." She added, "In a race this big, 0.5% is a lot of votes," and said she had never seen a large race in the county reversed from a deficit that size.

Under Florida law, the state, not the counties, decides whether a recount is required. Once the unofficial returns are in, the Department of State notifies the counties if one is needed.

What the candidates are saying

Soto declared victory on election night even though the AP had not called the race. "We feel confident about victory at this point," he said in a statement to News 6. "A recount may not be required since our margin of victory stands at .52%, above the .5% threshold." He said his team would request a machine recount if the margin falls below the threshold.

Green had not conceded. News 6 said it had not heard back from his campaign.

At his Kissimmee watch party, Soto described the close result as a rebuke of the new map, Central Florida Public Media reported. He said the outcome was decided by voters in "Central Florida, the heartland, and the coast."

A district redrawn to favor Republicans

Soto, a Democrat first elected in 2016, became the first Puerto Rican from Florida to serve in Congress. Republicans redrew his district this spring, and Gov. Ron DeSantis did not release the new boundaries until April. The old 9th District took in Osceola County and south Orange County and had a Hispanic majority. The new one is about three times as large. It covers roughly 5,500 square miles from Lake Nona to Lake Okeechobee, taking in parts of Orange, Osceola, Polk, Indian River, Okeechobee, Highlands and Glades counties. By Soto's own estimate, Republicans hold about a 6-point voter registration advantage.

Green, a military veteran, was a deputy assistant secretary of defense in the first Trump administration. He emerged from a crowded Republican primary and was endorsed by President Donald Trump and DeSantis, according to reports. During the campaign he called for lower tariffs, cuts to regulation and more price transparency. Soto ran on restoring the Indian River Lagoon and supporting growers and cattle ranchers.

Statewide, the redrawn congressional map did not deliver the new Republican seats its backers expected, WKMG reported. That held even as Democrats won control of the U.S. House nationally.

Florida's other close House races

District 9 is one of several Florida congressional races that stayed unresolved days after the Nov. 3 election.

District 7: In this redrawn Central Florida seat, Republican Ryan Elijah, a former news anchor, led Democrat Bale Dalton, a Navy veteran, by 1,701 votes out of more than 320,000 cast, WFTV reported Wednesday. That margin was about 0.53%, also just outside the recount threshold, according to Central Florida Public Media. Elijah's campaign said it was confident he had won. Dalton said, "This race remains too close to call."

District 27: In Miami-Dade County, the canvassing board's final count Friday had Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar ahead of Democrat Eliott Rodriguez by 1,090 votes. That margin is inside the 0.5% threshold, so a machine recount is scheduled to begin Tuesday, Nov. 10. Rodriguez has filed a federal lawsuit seeking to remove Supervisor of Elections Alina Garcia from the canvassing board, citing her family ties to Salazar's recount attorney.

District 26: Republican U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart led Democrat Nicole Locklin by about 1,700 votes, CBS News Miami reported Friday. Locklin has questioned the count after her total jumped and then dropped on election night. "If they can't explain where 3,000 votes went, they owe me a recount," she said. The Associated Press told CBS News Miami that a data entry error briefly showed an incorrect total for Locklin and was quickly corrected. Broward County's canvassing board met Friday to review about 300 outstanding ballots, roughly 100 of which were accepted. Broward Supervisor of Elections Joe Scott said, "If every single ballot was for District 26, it's not enough to change it." Officials in Broward and Miami-Dade said there were not enough outstanding votes to change the outcome or trigger a recount, and none has been ordered.

What's next

Here is the state's post-election calendar:

If the unofficial returns show Soto's margin at 0.5% or less, Secretary of State Cord Byrd's office will order a machine recount in all seven counties. A hand review of overvotes and undervotes would follow only if the machine recount put the gap at 0.25% or less. If the margin stays above 0.5%, no recount is required, and Soto's lead stands unless Green challenges the result after certification.