Hurricane Center Gives Western Atlantic Low a 20% Chance as Florida Faces Rough Surf, Not a Storm

The National Hurricane Center is watching the western Atlantic for a low-pressure system that could take on subtropical characteristics later this week, giving it a 20 percent chance of development over the next seven days in its Monday morning outlook. The system is expected to form a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas and drift away from Florida, so the state's main concerns this week remain rough surf, rip currents and coastal flooding from a separate weather pattern, not a tropical threat.

The outlook arrives with four weeks left in a 2026 Atlantic hurricane season that has been one of the quietest on record for hurricanes, even though Florida took the season's only hurricane landfall so far. The season officially ends Nov. 30.

What the hurricane center is watching

In its 7 a.m. Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, Nov. 2, the National Hurricane Center said an area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. Forecasters said the system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic.

The center put the odds of formation at near 0 percent over the next 48 hours and 20 percent over the next seven days, both in its low category. Forecasters said the chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend, when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions.

A subtropical storm is a hybrid system that has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone and some of a typical mid-latitude storm. If the low were to strengthen enough to be named, it would take the next name on the 2026 list, Kyle. The hurricane center has issued no advisories on the system, and none are expected unless it shows signs of organizing.

The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network noted that the low would be monitored for development while it stays hundreds of miles east of Florida and moves away from the United States.

What Floridians will feel this week

The potential low is not what is driving the rain and rough water in Florida right now. National Weather Service offices in Jacksonville, Melbourne and Miami attribute this week's conditions to strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, which is setting up brisk onshore winds over the state, combined with an upper-level disturbance that has produced flooding rain over Central and South Florida.

Those conditions are hazardous on their own. High rip current risks are posted from Nassau County to Miami-Dade County through Tuesday, and coastal flood advisories cover the St. Johns River basin, the Treasure Coast and the Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade coasts into Tuesday or early Wednesday. NWS Melbourne forecast breakers of 5 to 7 feet on Monday and seas of 6 to 9 feet offshore, easing to 5 to 6 feet by late Wednesday.

The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network reported that wind gusts along the Atlantic coast could top 40 mph through the first half of the week and seas could reach 10 feet, and advised swimmers and boaters to use extreme caution. If the western Atlantic low does develop, it is forecast to stay far enough offshore that any added swell reaching Florida beaches would be secondary to the conditions already in place. Beachgoers should follow lifeguard flags and local advisories either way.

A record-setting quiet season

Ten named storms have formed in the Atlantic in 2026, from Arthur through Josephine, which formed Oct. 21 as a subtropical storm before becoming post-tropical. Only one of them, Isaias, became a hurricane. A typical season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

Isaias reached hurricane strength in early October over the Gulf, tying the 1905 season for the latest date for the first hurricane of a season, according to season records based on hurricane center data. Action News Jax meteorologist Mike Buresh noted it was the latest first hurricane of the satellite era. Isaias peaked as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds and made landfall near Destin on the evening of Oct. 9 with 105 mph winds, the first hurricane to strike the United States since Milton in 2024.

Forecasters had expected a slow year. In its Aug. 6 update, NOAA predicted 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes, with a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season. The agency pointed to El Niño, which emerged in the Pacific in June and was strengthening. El Niño tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which tears at developing storms. "When El Nino emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity," NOAA's Matt Rosencrans said at the time.

The season so far has landed at the low end of that forecast for hurricanes, with one hurricane against a predicted range of two to six.

Why the last weeks still matter

Late-season systems tend to form close to home, in the western Caribbean, the Gulf or the western Atlantic, which is why forecasters keep a close watch through November even in quiet years. The current system fits that pattern in location, but its forecast track keeps it heading away from the United States.

For Florida, the practical takeaway this week is about the ocean, not a storm. Water levels are running high along the Atlantic coast, rip currents are a serious danger at every east coast beach, and boaters face small craft advisories into Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

What's next

The National Hurricane Center updates its Tropical Weather Outlook four times a day, at 1 a.m., 7 a.m., 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. Eastern time. Forecasters will watch whether the low forms northeast of the Bahamas around midweek and whether it gains subtropical features before it moves into hostile conditions by the weekend.

Closer to home, the weather service expects rain chances and winds to ease from Wednesday onward, with seas gradually subsiding late in the week. The hurricane season ends Nov. 30, after which the hurricane center stops routine outlooks until mid-May, though it can issue special outlooks or advisories if a system forms out of season.