New State Review Finds No Unusual Rise in St. Lucie County Glioblastoma Cases, but Families Still Want a Street-Level Look

The Florida Department of Health has taken a second look at glioblastoma cases in St. Lucie County and again found no unusual increase in the deadly brain cancer, according to WPTV. The new review counted 95 cases from 2019 through 2023, three more than the 92 that would be expected for a county of St. Lucie's size, a difference health officials say is not statistically significant.

The finding matches the department's first review, released in 2019. But families who pushed for that earlier investigation say the new analysis still does not answer their central question: why patients they know of lived so close to one another, sometimes on the same street.

What the new review found

Clint Sperber, administrator of the Florida Department of Health in St. Lucie County, told WPTV the results have not changed. "The conclusion that was found in 2019 is the same one we have today," he said. "We are seeing the same ratio, the same expected number of cases that we would expect statewide for our county."

Sperber said a county of roughly 400,000 residents would be expected to see about 14 to 15 new glioblastoma diagnoses a year. The review's count of 95 cases over the five years from 2019 to 2023 compares with 92 expected, according to the station.

Health officials also reviewed existing water and radiation monitoring records and did not identify new concerns, WPTV reported. Because the county's population keeps growing, officials expect the total number of diagnoses to rise over time even if the rate stays in line with the state.

What the review does not examine

The new analysis has limits that matter to the families. Unlike the 2019 report, it does not break down cases by age or sex; officials told WPTV there are too few cases to make those comparisons statistically reliable.

It also does not closely examine whether patients lived near one another on particular streets or in specific neighborhoods, Sperber acknowledged. That means the countywide finding does not directly address the geographic pattern that first alarmed families, WPTV reported.

How the concerns began

The questions date to 2018, when WPTV reporter Meghan McRoberts began reporting on glioblastoma patients in St. Lucie County. Among the first cases was Lenny Schelin Jr., who died at 33 after surviving 17 months following his diagnosis. Other patients included Mark Cunningham, who was in his 30s, and Kyle Vericella, who was 18.

Glioblastoma is most commonly diagnosed in older adults, so the young ages of some patients troubled their families. After the first stories aired, dozens more patients and relatives contacted the station, and area doctors and neurosurgeons also raised concerns, according to WPTV.

As patients connected with one another, the station mapped where they lived. Some lived within blocks of each other, others on the same street, and in one case unrelated patients had lived in the same home, WPTV reported. The reporting drew attention from lawmakers, environmental advocate Erin Brockovich and the Department of Health.

The 2019 report

Sperber said the concerns led him to ask for help from Florida's cancer registry. "You brought it to my attention. It was alarming, it was nerve wracking," he told McRoberts.

The department's 21-page report, released in February 2019, covered cases from 1998 to 2017 in three ZIP codes: 34952, 34982 and 34983. It recorded approximately 60 glioblastoma cases in that period and concluded, "There were no statistically significant differences in the number of observed cases than expected cases" in all three ZIP codes, WPTV reported at the time.

The numbers in individual groups did vary. For men in ZIP code 34952 from 1998 to 2007, for example, the report listed 10.4 expected cases and 17 observed. State health officials said such numbers can fluctuate from year to year without signaling a cluster, and acknowledged they did not have an exact threshold for what would count as a statistically high incidence rate.

The 2019 report also noted the limits of the Florida Cancer Data System. Like other state registries, it records who was diagnosed, with what, when and where, but does not collect environmental exposures, complete genetic data or residential history, so registry data alone cannot explain why cancers occur in a given area.

State officials also reviewed radiation monitoring around Florida Power & Light's power plant and found no increased levels, and reviewed drinking water records without finding concerns, though private wells are not tested the way city water is, according to the 2019 coverage. "There is water testing, there is vegetation testing, they look at watermelon, milk, fish, soil, they would know if there is any release of radiation," Sperber told WPTV.

The result disappointed families. "I was like deflated because we worked so hard," said Deb Johnston, Schelin's mother.

Why a cause is hard to pin down

Sperber told WPTV that recent research published in the International Journal of Molecular Sciences identified nearly a dozen potential factors associated with glioblastoma, which makes it difficult to trace cases to a single environmental source.

"I wish there was an answer," he said. "I wish there was a smoking gun that says okay here is the reason, the cause, the source for glioblastoma."

Neither review has identified a cause for the St. Lucie County cases, and neither has found evidence of a cluster under the department's statistical methods.

Families want a closer look

Johnston told McRoberts she was deflated again to hear the state's conclusion had not changed, but said she was glad officials are still reviewing the numbers. Asked whether that gave her hope, she said, "Yes … it gives you hope for the others that come behind us."

She wants investigators to look at individual neighborhoods rather than countywide data. Nearly eight years after her son's death, she said the search has taken a toll. "I haven't given up, it's just you get tired," she said.

Research money since the first reports

Since WPTV's initial reporting, the Florida Department of Health has invested at least $9 million in glioblastoma research, according to the station. The 2019 report had said the department would recommend that state research programs, including the Bankhead-Coley program and the Live Like Bella program, fund local researchers to study risk factors for brain cancer subtypes, specifically glioblastoma.

Johnston has raised money on her own. She hosts an annual fishing tournament in her son's memory, which has raised nearly $300,000 for glioblastoma research, and another tournament is coming up, WPTV reported.

What's next

The 2019 report said the department would continue monitoring cancer rates in the areas of concern and work with local cancer groups on education. The department has not announced a street-level or neighborhood review of the kind families are seeking.

Families who first raised the issue say they will keep pressing for a closer look at where patients lived, and Johnston's next research fundraiser is approaching.