Isaias Brings Surge, Flooding Rain and Tornado Risk to Tallahassee and the Big Bend

Tallahassee and the Big Bend are far enough east of Hurricane Isaias's expected landfall to escape its eyewall, but not its surge, rain or tornadoes. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee is forecasting 4 to 6 feet of storm surge from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, 4 to 8 inches of rain on already saturated ground with local totals up to 15 inches, and a heightened tornado threat from Friday into Saturday, while Franklin County has ordered its barrier islands evacuated and Florida State, FAMU and Tallahassee State College have shut down.

Isaias strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane Friday morning with 120 mph winds, the National Hurricane Center said, and is expected to make landfall tonight or early Saturday between coastal Mississippi and the Bay/Gulf County line. The Tallahassee forecast office warned that the storm's large wind field and rain bands displaced east of the track mean impacts will reach well beyond the forecast cone, particularly east of the center.

Warnings from the coast to Leon County

According to the Tallahassee office's 8:37 a.m. EDT hurricane local statement, a Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for coastal Franklin, Gulf, Wakulla and Jefferson counties, and a Storm Surge Warning covers coastal Taylor and Dixie counties. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Leon, Gadsden, Liberty and inland Franklin, Gulf and Wakulla counties, and inland Jefferson County is under a Tropical Storm Watch. The hurricane center's coastal Tropical Storm Warning runs from the Bay/Gulf County line east to the Aucilla River, the boundary between Jefferson and Taylor counties.

The National Weather Service extended the Tropical Storm Warning to Leon County on Thursday, prompting the county to declare a local state of emergency.

Surge along the Forgotten Coast and Big Bend

The hurricane center forecasts surge of 4 to 6 feet above normally dry ground from Indian Pass, in Gulf County, through Apalachicola, St. George Island, Carrabelle, Alligator Point and the Wakulla and Jefferson coasts to the Steinhatchee River, if the peak surge arrives at high tide. From the Steinhatchee River to the Suwannee River, along the Taylor and Dixie coasts, the forecast is 3 to 5 feet.

The Tallahassee office said the greatest surge risk is Friday into Saturday and that coastal saltwater flooding may linger through Saturday because of persistent onshore winds. For the coastal Panhandle and Big Bend, it warned of possible extensive impacts, including large areas of deep inundation, washed-out near-shore roads and secondary roads, severe beach erosion, and major damage to marinas, docks and piers.

The region has taken repeated blows in recent years. Hurricane Idalia made landfall near Keaton Beach in Taylor County in August 2023, Hurricane Debby came ashore near Steinhatchee in August 2024, and Hurricane Helene struck near Perry the following month.

Rain on soggy ground

For Tallahassee, the bigger threat is water from above. The Weather Service said soggy conditions from recent rainfall make much of the region more sensitive to flooding, and that localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, especially within bands over the Panhandle and Big Bend. Totals like that could produce isolated to scattered flash flooding, with localized considerable flash flooding where bands repeatedly cross the same area. The office expanded its Flood Watch to cover the rest of its region from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening and said minor to isolated moderate river flooding appears likely.

The office urged people in flood-prone areas to consider moving to higher ground and never to drive through a flooded roadway. Leon County opened five sandbag sites Thursday morning, including Apalachee Regional Park, Fred George Park, Fort Braden Community Park and the Northeast Branch Library.

Wind and tornadoes

The Tallahassee office expects a heightened tornado risk across the Panhandle and western Big Bend from Friday into Saturday, with several tornadoes possible from outer and trailing rain bands, and a smaller risk east of Interstate 75 and in the southeastern Big Bend. It warned of possible limited to significant wind impacts across the western and southeastern Big Bend, meaning downed trees and power lines across a region where tree-lined roads routinely trap neighborhoods after storms.

Leon County, schools and campuses

Leon County Commission Chairman Christian Caban signed the local emergency proclamation Thursday. The county said the declaration is in effect for seven days, may be extended, and is not an evacuation order or curfew. County offices, libraries and community centers close at noon Friday.

Leon County Schools stayed open but dismissed early Friday. All times in Tallahassee are Eastern: high schools are releasing at 11:20 a.m., elementary schools at 12:20 p.m. and middle schools at 1:20 p.m.. After-school programs are canceled. District offices and campuses close at 3 p.m.

Florida State University shifted its Tallahassee campuses, including the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, to remote classes and work from 8 a.m. to noon Friday, then canceled classes and suspended normal business operations at noon. FSU said campus housing and dining will continue through the storm, many weekend events are canceled, and it expects to resume classes and normal operations Monday, Oct. 12. FSU Panama City was closed Thursday and Friday, and the university's Coastal and Marine Laboratory in St. Teresa, on the Franklin County coast, closed Friday.

Florida A&M University held morning classes remotely Friday, canceled afternoon classes and began early dismissal at noon, with only essential employees on duty. FAMU said it expects to resume classes and normal operations Monday, Oct. 12. Its Crestview campus is operating virtually Friday, according to the state. Tallahassee State College closed its campuses Friday and plans to reopen Monday. School districts in Franklin, Gadsden, Liberty, Taylor and Wakulla counties are closed Friday, according to the governor's office.

Franklin and Wakulla orders

Franklin County ordered mandatory evacuations beginning at noon Thursday for St. George Island, Dog Island, Alligator Point and Bald Point, along with low-lying areas, mobile homes and RV parks, and asked evacuees to be out by Friday morning. The county said its bridges will close to all vehicle traffic and EMS will stop responding once sustained winds reach 45 mph, and that first responders will not enter evacuated areas when it is unsafe. Franklin County schools and government offices are closed Friday, and double red flags are flying on its beaches.

Wakulla County issued a voluntary evacuation for Coastal Zone A, low-lying areas, mobile homes and RV parks, and opened a Red Cross shelter at 4 p.m. Thursday in the Crawfordville Room of the Wakulla County Community Center, 318 Shadeville Road. Pets are welcome with crates, records, leashes, food and water.

Jefferson, Taylor and Dixie counties are included in the governor's 25-county state of emergency, and their coasts are under the Storm Surge Warning. The Florida Press found no announced evacuation orders for those three counties as of Friday morning; residents should check FloridaDisaster.org/Evacuation-Orders and their county emergency management office for changes.

State resources staged in Tallahassee

The capital is also a staging area for the response. Two urban search and rescue teams are staged in Tallahassee, according to the governor's office, and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement is arranging fuel for law enforcement along Interstate 10, including at the Florida Public Safety Institute in Havana and the westbound weigh station at Sneads, which was scheduled to open for first-responder refueling Friday.

What's next

Tropical-storm conditions are expected to spread into the Big Bend later Friday, with the heaviest rain bands and tornado risk overnight and into Saturday. The Flood Watch runs through Saturday evening, and coastal flooding could linger through Saturday even as Isaias moves inland over Alabama. Leon County's emergency portal at LeonCountyFL.gov/ei and the Weather Service's Tallahassee office will post updates, and the Tallahassee office's next local statement is due around noon Eastern time.