Soaked Northeast Florida Faces More Flooding as Tropical Storm Isaias Takes Aim at the Gulf Coast

Northeast Florida woke up Wednesday to flooded streets, swollen rivers and a Flood Watch that the National Weather Service extended into the evening, after a stalled front and a nor'easter dumped as much as 7 to 10 inches of rain on parts of the region in a single day. And the soaking is not over: forecasters in Jacksonville say Tropical Storm Isaias, now strengthening in the Gulf, is likely to send another round of heavy rain, gusty onshore winds and possibly tornadoes into the area Friday and Saturday.

The weather service office in Jacksonville said in a 9 a.m. update that areas from about Duval County northward had received as much as 7 to 10 inches of rain over the previous 24 hours, and that it was extending the Flood Watch because of uncertainty about where heavy bands would set up Wednesday afternoon.

Flood Watch through 6 p.m. Wednesday

The Flood Watch, reissued at 8:49 a.m., runs until 6 p.m. Wednesday for coastal and inland Nassau, coastal, south central and western Duval, the Trout River area, eastern Clay, eastern Putnam, coastal and inland Flagler, and much of St. Johns County, along with Camden County in southeast Georgia. The weather service said waves of moderate to heavy rain would keep moving onshore through the afternoon, with an additional 1 to 3 inches possible and locally more. That rain could combine with higher than normal tides to worsen flooding along the Atlantic coast and the St. Johns River.

The watch is one of several active alerts across the region. The main ones in effect Wednesday morning are below.

How much rain has fallen

Rain totals have varied sharply over short distances. Automated weather stations in Jacksonville logged 5.71 inches in the 24 hours ending Tuesday evening near San Pablo and 5.29 inches near Fort Caroline, according to preliminary reports collected by the weather service. Forecasters said in their hydrology discussion Wednesday that coastal areas had received 2 to more than 6 inches in the past 24 hours, and that widespread totals of 4 to 8 inches over several days had pushed portions of the St. Marys, Satilla, Santa Fe and Alapaha rivers into flood stage. Most river levels were expected to crest and slowly fall during a break in the heavy rain over the next few days.

Flood reports have come in from around the region. On Tuesday evening, a resident reported that the Trout River and recent rain had flooded low-lying spots along Broward Road in north Jacksonville, and the river gauge at Lem Turner Road reached minor flood stage. On Wednesday morning, a weather service employee reported several inches or more of water covering parts of Wilderness Trail and Canal Boulevard in Palm Valley in St. Johns County.

Atlantic Beach and the St. Johns River

At the beaches, Atlantic Beach police closed Atlantic Boulevard from East Coast Drive to the oceanfront on Tuesday after about a foot of standing water covered the road, News4JAX reported. The road reopened after several hours. The city said its public works crews began lowering pond levels Monday morning and cleared debris from inlets, culverts, ditches and swales, and that recent drainage projects near Aquatic Drive, Mary Street, Dutton Island and Howell Park had limited flooding in other parts of town. "Always floods out here every time it rains. We kind of expect it," longtime resident Tim Hembree told the station.

Along the St. Johns River, persistent northeast winds are creating a reverse flow that is pushing water upstream. The weather service said tides could reach 1.75 to 2.25 feet above normally dry ground at high tide through the end of the week, and that freshwater runoff from 3 to 6 inches of rain could push tidal flooding near the mouth of the river toward moderate levels. The northeast wind was forecast to gust to 25 to 35 mph along the beaches Wednesday, according to News4JAX meteorologists.

Baker County and inland flooding

West of Jacksonville, flooding closed Shoals Park in Baker County and covered several roads earlier this week, News4JAX reported Monday. Baker County Emergency Management Director John Blanchard said most of the county had received about 3.5 inches of rain, with up to 5 inches in some spots, and that 4 to 6 more inches were forecast over the following days. One resident told the station his area got about 10 inches between Saturday and Sunday. "With this type of weather pattern, your neighbor across the street can get rain and you might not get any rain," Blanchard said. He said the flooding near Shoals Park is partly by design, since the area serves as a natural intake for the river.

Baker and Columbia are the two Northeast Florida counties included in the state of emergency Gov. Ron DeSantis declared Tuesday for 25 counties ahead of Isaias.

St. Johns County braces for king tides

In St. Johns County, Fire Rescue is watching rising water as rain, wind and the approach of seasonal king tides combine. Engineer Chris Naff told News4JAX on Wednesday that the department's marine rescue division and coastal stations are ready and that it has high water trucks available. He said the department expects more weather and flood calls as king tides peak around Oct. 9 to 13, with Flagler Estates, St. Augustine and other coastal communities especially vulnerable. "Don't drive through flooded streets," Naff said. "You don't know how deep they are, even if you're familiar with them." He also urged drivers to watch their wake, which can push water into homes, and told beachgoers to stay out of the water, noting that lifeguard towers are not staffed this time of year.

Volusia County: pumps and a rising river

Farther south, Daytona Beach public works crews were pumping down ponds Tuesday ahead of several more inches of rain, News 6 reported, focusing on Butts Park, the Madison Avenue Pond and the North Street Pond. The city also set up an emergency pump in the Fairway Estates neighborhood and at the Gardiner Court pump station. News 6 meteorologists expect rain chances of 80 to 90 percent across Central Florida through Friday, with about 2 inches of rain widespread and isolated totals near 4 inches.

The weather service office in Melbourne has a Flood Warning for the St. Johns River near Astor, on the Volusia and Lake county line. The river stood at 2.4 feet Tuesday night, above its 2.3-foot flood stage, and was forecast to keep rising to about 2.7 feet late this week. That would top the 2.6-foot crest recorded on Oct. 14, 1996. At current levels, the weather service said, docks and boat ramps are covered at fish camps and marinas and several roads near the river, including Acorn, Hazelnut and Redbud, are underwater.

Earlier in the stretch of storms, Volusia County issued a precautionary boil water notice on Saturday, Oct. 3, for utility customers in Halifax Plantation, Sugar Mill and four other communities in Volusia and Flagler counties after an electrical disruption during bad weather cut water pressure. The county has since lifted the notice after two rounds of bacteriological testing met standards, according to county announcements.

What's next: Isaias arrives Friday and Saturday

At 10 a.m. CDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued a Hurricane Watch from Bay St. Louis, Miss., to Indian Pass in Gulf County and a Storm Surge Watch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, and said Isaias is expected to become a strong hurricane before reaching the northern Gulf Coast Friday. None of the watches extend to Northeast Florida, but the storm's broad eastern side will reach the region.

Thursday is expected to bring a brief break in the heaviest rain north of Interstate 10, but the Jacksonville forecast office said deep tropical moisture will spread north Friday as Isaias turns toward the northern Gulf Coast. Training downpours off the Atlantic could prompt new Flood Watches for coastal areas Friday, and the Weather Prediction Center already has a marginal risk of flash flooding for the region that day.

Saturday may be the most dangerous day for Northeast Florida. Forecasters said the region will be on the storm's east side, which they described as the dynamically favored quadrant, where a few organized thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes could develop Saturday afternoon. Heavy rain on already saturated ground will likely keep a flood risk going through the weekend. The forecast office said those threats would become a greater concern if Isaias' track shifts farther east. Onshore winds will also keep rough surf, rip currents and elevated tides in the St. Johns River and Intracoastal Waterway going into the weekend.

Relief is in sight. Forecasters expect a cold front behind the storm's remnants to bring drier, sunnier and more stable weather to Northeast Florida early next week.