Florida Home Prices Hit Record $432,000 as Inventory Tells a Split Market Story

Florida's housing market has posted its tenth consecutive month of year-over-year sales growth, with the statewide median sale price reaching a record $432,000, according to data compiled by Florida Realtors. The figures point to a market that is moving again after a sluggish stretch, but one where conditions now differ substantially from metro to metro.

Second quarter data showed statewide existing single-family home sales totaling 75,080, up 4.1 percent from the same quarter in 2025. Existing condo and townhouse sales totaled 27,101, a 9 percent year-over-year increase, a notable rebound in a segment that had been under sustained pressure from association assessments and structural reserve requirements.

The sales growth has come at both ends of the price spectrum. Closed sales of homes priced below $200,000 rose 18.4 percent year over year to 6,205, while sales of properties priced at $1 million or more jumped 29.5 percent to 2,195. The strength at both extremes suggests different buyer populations responding to different conditions.

The inventory picture is no longer statewide

Available inventory statewide stands at roughly a 4.5 month supply. A six month supply is generally considered a balanced market, so on a statewide basis Florida remains modestly tilted toward sellers. That headline number, however, conceals wide variation.

Every major Florida market tracked except Miami was above pre-pandemic inventory norms in May. Lakeland and Orlando stood out most sharply. Lakeland's listed inventory ran 69 percent above its typical May level from the 2017 to 2019 period, and Orlando was 41 percent higher than its pre-pandemic norm.

Miami is the outlier in the other direction, with inventory still below pre-pandemic levels. The South Florida market has been supported by international buyers, domestic in-migration from higher-cost metros and a condo segment that, while under pressure from assessments, has not produced the listing surge seen in parts of Central Florida.

The divergence matters for anyone reading statewide averages. A buyer in Polk County is operating in a materially different market from a buyer in Miami-Dade, and the same is true for sellers pricing a property.

What is driving the split

Central Florida's inventory build reflects several converging factors. The region absorbed substantial new construction during the 2021 through 2023 period, and completed homes from that pipeline continue to reach the market. Builder incentives, including rate buydowns, have also pulled some demand away from the resale market.

Insurance and association costs have played a role in the condo segment specifically. Florida's structural integrity reserve study requirements, adopted after the Surfside collapse, have driven special assessments in older buildings, and those costs have made some units difficult to sell at prior price expectations. The 9 percent year-over-year condo sales increase suggests price adjustments have begun clearing that backlog.

Mortgage rates remain the dominant demand-side variable. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady in a range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent at its July meeting on a 9 to 3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting over inflation that has run above the 2 percent target. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but its policy guidance moves the bond market that drives 30-year mortgage pricing.

Analysts have noted that the July decision is unlikely to move mortgage rates significantly on its own, with borrowing costs more responsive to inflation data and energy prices than to any single Fed meeting.

What it means for buyers

Buyers in Central Florida markets with elevated inventory have leverage they have not had since before the pandemic. Longer days on market create room for price negotiation, inspection-based concessions and seller-paid closing costs, all of which had largely disappeared during the 2021 and 2022 bidding-war environment.

The affordability math still depends heavily on the total monthly cost rather than the purchase price alone. In Florida, insurance premiums and, for condo buyers, association dues and pending assessments can represent a large share of the monthly obligation. Buyers who underwrite only to principal, interest and taxes routinely find the actual carrying cost higher than expected.

The strength in sub-$200,000 sales indicates that entry-level inventory is transacting, though that segment in Florida is heavily weighted toward manufactured housing, older condos and properties in inland counties rather than coastal metros.

Buyers should also account for property tax mechanics. Florida's Save Our Homes cap limits annual assessed value increases for existing homesteads but does not transfer in full to a new buyer, meaning a purchaser's tax bill often exceeds what the prior owner paid on the same property. Amendment 3 on the November ballot would change the exemption structure if approved.

What it means for sellers

Sellers in markets with inventory above pre-pandemic norms are competing against more listings than at any point in recent years. Pricing to the current market rather than to 2022 peak comparables has become the practical determinant of whether a property moves.

The record statewide median price is a useful headline but a poor pricing tool for an individual property. Median prices are influenced by the mix of what sells, and a quarter with strong million-dollar activity will pull the median upward independent of what any given neighborhood is doing.

Condo sellers face the most specific challenge. Buyers and their lenders are scrutinizing reserve funding, deferred maintenance and pending assessments, and buildings that have completed their structural integrity reserve studies and funded reserves are transacting more readily than those that have not.

Days on market has lengthened in most Florida metros relative to the pandemic period, which affects carrying cost calculations for sellers who have already purchased their next home.

Local impact across the state

Lakeland and the broader Polk County market show the most pronounced inventory build, at 69 percent above pre-pandemic May norms. Polk sits between Tampa and Orlando and absorbed substantial commuter-driven development during the growth period.

Orlando, at 41 percent above pre-pandemic inventory, has a large rental and short-term rental component alongside its owner-occupied market. Central Florida's tourism economy influences both, and the opening of Epic Universe has added a new demand variable to the region's housing and lodging picture.

Tampa Bay markets including Hillsborough and Pinellas counties have seen inventory normalize while remaining a step behind the Central Florida build. Coastal Pinellas properties carry insurance and flood zone considerations that shape buyer pools.

Southwest Florida, including Lee and Collier counties, continues to work through the aftermath of recent hurricane seasons in its housing stock and insurance market. Northeast Florida around Jacksonville has generally tracked closer to statewide averages than the outlier metros.

Reading the median price correctly

The record $432,000 statewide median is the number that generates headlines, and it is also the number most likely to be misread. A median is the midpoint of what actually sold, which means it moves when the composition of sales changes even if no individual property changed value.

This quarter provides a clear illustration. Sales of properties at $1 million or more jumped 29.5 percent year over year to 2,195 transactions. A quarter with unusually strong luxury activity pulls the statewide median upward regardless of what happened in the middle of the market.

Sales below $200,000 rose even faster in percentage terms, up 18.4 percent to 6,205, which pushes in the opposite direction. The record median reflects the net of those movements plus everything in between, not a uniform increase across Florida housing.

For anyone pricing or valuing a specific property, the relevant comparison is recent sales of similar homes in the same submarket. Statewide medians are useful for tracking direction over time and are close to useless for individual valuation.

The condo segment's separate story

Condominium and townhouse sales rose 9 percent year over year in the second quarter, outpacing single-family growth. That rebound follows a difficult stretch driven by regulatory changes rather than by broader market conditions.

Florida's structural integrity reserve study requirements, adopted following the Surfside collapse, obligate associations in buildings of three stories or more to inspect structural components and fund reserves accordingly. For older buildings with deferred maintenance, that translated into substantial special assessments.

Those assessments hit the resale market hard. A buyer evaluating a unit with a pending five-figure assessment prices it accordingly, and units in buildings that had not completed their studies faced uncertainty that made pricing nearly impossible.

The 9 percent sales increase suggests that process is working through the market. Buildings that completed studies and funded reserves have removed the uncertainty, and sellers in buildings still working through the process have largely adjusted price expectations. Lenders now examine association financials as part of underwriting, which makes reserve funding a financing question rather than only a cost question.

New construction and the builder factor

Resale market data tells only part of the Florida housing story, because homebuilders operate on a different set of incentives and have tools resale sellers do not.

Builders carry inventory costs on completed homes and on land, which creates pressure to move product that an individual homeowner does not face. That pressure has produced aggressive incentives, most notably mortgage rate buydowns in which the builder pays points to reduce a buyer's rate below the prevailing market.

Those buydowns effectively let builders compete on monthly payment rather than on price, which preserves reported sale prices while delivering real value to buyers. The result is that a new home and a comparably priced resale home can carry materially different monthly costs.

The effect is concentrated in the Central Florida and Southwest Florida markets where the bulk of Florida's residential construction has occurred. Resale sellers in those submarkets are competing against that incentive structure whether they realize it or not, which is part of what has driven the inventory build in Lakeland and Orlando.

What's next

Florida Realtors is scheduled to release July 2026 market data on August 17, which will show whether the sales growth streak extended to an eleventh month and whether the median price held at record levels through the summer.

The Federal Reserve's next policy decisions will shape mortgage rate expectations into the fall. Commentary from the Fed following the July meeting emphasized persistent inflation, and market participants have taken that as a signal that near-term rate cuts are less certain than previously assumed.

The November ballot adds a policy variable. If Amendment 3 passes, the non-school homestead exemption would rise to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, changing the after-tax cost of ownership for homesteaded buyers and potentially affecting demand.

Insurance rates are the other watch item. Citizens Property Insurance Corporation reduced rates for 2026 and private carriers have filed decreases, and whether that trend continues through the 2027 filing season will affect Florida housing affordability as much as any mortgage rate movement.