Florida Home Sales Rise for Ninth Straight Month as Inventory Stays Tight

Florida's housing market showed continued momentum in the latest monthly figures, with closed sales rising year over year for the ninth consecutive month and the median single-family home price sitting near $425,000. The data, reflecting May 2026 activity, points to a market that has stabilized after years of turbulence, even as tight inventory and elevated mortgage rates keep pressure on affordability.

The numbers offer a snapshot of a Florida real estate landscape that has cooled from the frenzied pace of the pandemic-era boom but has not collapsed. Instead, the market appears to be settling into a pattern of steady sales and modest price growth, a shift from the sharp swings of recent years.

That steadiness is itself notable. Coming out of the pandemic, Florida became one of the most closely watched housing markets in the country, first for the speed of its price gains and later for warnings that those gains might reverse. The latest figures suggest neither the runaway appreciation of the boom nor the sharp correction some had feared, but rather a market finding equilibrium, with buyers and sellers gradually recalibrating their expectations to a new normal of higher borrowing costs and more balanced negotiating power.

The latest numbers

According to market data for May 2026, the median single-family home price in Florida stood at roughly $425,000, representing a year-over-year increase of about 2.4%. That is a far cry from the double-digit annual gains that characterized the height of the boom, and it signals a return to more sustainable price appreciation.

Closed sales rose sharply compared with the prior year, with the number of homes sold up nearly 10% and totaling more than 30,000 single-family transactions in the month. That marked the ninth straight month of year-over-year sales increases, suggesting that buyers have continued to engage despite the cost pressures weighing on the market.

Inventory remained relatively tight, with roughly a 4.7-month supply of homes and more than 156,000 active listings statewide. A balanced market is often considered to be around a five to six month supply, so Florida's inventory still tilts modestly toward sellers, though it has loosened considerably from the extreme shortages seen during the boom. The median time on market was around 69 days.

Read together, those figures describe a market in transition rather than a market at an extreme. Sales rising while prices climb only modestly is a sign that added demand is being met by a fuller pool of listings, which keeps price growth in check. A supply reading just below the balanced range, paired with homes taking a couple of months to sell, points to conditions that still favor sellers on price but increasingly give buyers the time and choice to be selective, a combination the state has not consistently seen in several years.

The interest rate backdrop

The housing market's performance comes as mortgage rates remain elevated by recent historical standards. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered in the mid-6% range, after dipping earlier in the year and then climbing again. Higher borrowing costs raise monthly payments and can price some buyers out of the market or push them toward smaller or less expensive homes.

The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rate steady in recent meetings, and forecasters generally expect mortgage rates to remain around the mid-6% range for the remainder of the year rather than falling back below 6% as some had hoped. That expectation shapes buyer behavior, as prospective homeowners weigh whether to purchase now or wait for potential relief that may not come soon.

The math of higher rates is unforgiving. A mortgage rate in the mid-6% range translates into a meaningfully larger monthly payment than the sub-4% rates many buyers locked in during the boom years, and that gap reshapes what households can afford at any given price. It also helps explain a phenomenon that has constrained inventory nationwide: homeowners who secured very low rates in prior years are often reluctant to sell and give up that financing, keeping some would-be listings off the market and reinforcing the tight supply Florida continues to report.

For a state like Florida, where many buyers relocate from other parts of the country, the combination of home prices and mortgage rates determines affordability at a moment when the cost of insurance and property taxes also factors heavily into the total cost of ownership. Those additional costs have become a defining feature of the Florida housing equation.

The Florida context

Florida's housing market is shaped by sustained population growth, as new residents continue to arrive from other states and abroad. That demand has historically supported home prices, but it collides with affordability constraints tied to mortgage rates, insurance premiums, and the price gains of recent years.

Property insurance costs in particular have become a central issue for Florida homeowners, adding hundreds or thousands of dollars to annual ownership costs in a state highly exposed to hurricanes. Recent signs of stabilization in the insurance market have offered some relief, but the expense remains a significant factor for buyers calculating what they can afford. For many households, the insurance line has grown large enough to influence not just which home they buy but whether they can buy at all, and lenders increasingly scrutinize those costs when qualifying borrowers.

Inventory dynamics vary widely across the state, from the tight, high-priced markets of South Florida to more moderate conditions in other regions. Statewide figures smooth over those local differences, but they capture the broad trend of a market that has found a more sustainable footing after the extremes of the past several years. Coastal metros, retirement destinations, and inland communities can each move on their own rhythm, driven by local job growth, the pace of new construction, and how heavily a given area is exposed to storm risk and the insurance costs that come with it.

The mix of buyers also sets Florida apart from much of the country. The state draws retirees, remote workers, second-home purchasers, and out-of-state movers seeking lower income taxes or a warmer climate, and each group responds differently to the same market conditions. A cash buyer relocating from a higher-cost state may be relatively insensitive to mortgage rates, while a first-time local buyer feels every uptick in monthly payments. That diversity helps explain why Florida sales have held up even as financing costs climbed, since a meaningful share of transactions is less dependent on borrowing than the national average would suggest.

What it means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, the current market offers more choice than the depleted inventory of the boom years but at prices that continue to edge upward and with financing costs that remain a hurdle. The nearly 10% year-over-year jump in sales suggests that many buyers are still finding ways to transact, whether by adjusting expectations or taking advantage of the larger pool of listings.

With more homes to choose from and properties sitting longer, buyers have regained a measure of leverage that was unthinkable at the peak of the boom. That can translate into room to negotiate on price, to request repairs or closing help, or simply to take the time to inspect a home carefully rather than waiving contingencies to win a bidding war. The tradeoff is that the monthly payment on any given purchase remains high by recent standards, so the leverage buyers have gained on price is partly offset by what they pay to finance the deal.

For sellers, the tight-but-loosening inventory and steady price growth mean that well-priced homes can still sell, though the days of near-instant sales and bidding wars have largely faded. A median time on market of around 69 days indicates that homes are taking longer to sell than during the frenzy, requiring sellers to price realistically. Overpriced listings increasingly linger and invite price cuts, while homes that are staged well and priced to the current market still attract serious interest.

For the broader economy, a stable housing market supports related industries, from construction to home improvement to real estate services, all of which are significant employers in Florida. A market that neither overheats nor freezes tends to sustain that activity more reliably than one prone to boom-and-bust cycles. Steady transaction volume keeps agents, lenders, title companies, movers, and contractors working, spreading the benefits of a functioning market well beyond the buyers and sellers at its center.

What's next

The trajectory of Florida's housing market through the rest of 2026 will depend heavily on mortgage rates, insurance costs, and the pace of new construction. If rates hold steady as forecasters expect, affordability pressures are likely to persist, potentially tempering price growth while sustaining the steady sales pace seen in recent months.

New construction is a variable worth watching closely, because Florida has been among the more active states for homebuilding, and additional supply can help ease the inventory crunch that has kept the market tilted toward sellers. Should builders continue to deliver homes and existing owners grow more willing to list, buyers could see still more choice, which would reinforce the trend toward a more balanced market even if underlying demand stays strong.

Insurance will remain a storyline of its own. Because the cost of coverage weighs so heavily on Florida ownership, any further stabilization or renewed increases in premiums could tip affordability in either direction, independent of what home prices and mortgage rates do. Buyers and sellers alike will be watching how the insurance market behaves through the heart of hurricane season, when a single major storm can reshape expectations for the year.

Population growth remains the wild card that has long underpinned Florida real estate. As long as people keep moving to the state, demand for housing is likely to remain firm, supporting the market even amid affordability challenges. The coming months of data will show whether the ninth consecutive month of rising sales extends into a longer streak or whether higher costs finally begin to slow the pace.