NOAA Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but Forecasters Warn Florida Cannot Let Its Guard Down

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, projecting a below-normal season driven primarily by the anticipated development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. NOAA assigned a 55 percent probability to a below-normal season, a 35 percent probability to a near-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Despite the relatively favorable odds, forecasters and emergency managers were quick to remind Floridians that no seasonal forecast eliminates the risk of a catastrophic landfall on the state's coastline.

The forecast calls for 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 of those strengthening into hurricanes and 1 to 3 reaching major hurricane status, defined as Category 3 or higher with sustained winds above 111 miles per hour. For context, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The 2026 projection sits meaningfully below those averages at the midpoint of its range, though the upper bound of the forecast window still approaches average conditions.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, though storms have formed outside that window in recent years. As of May 23, 2026, no active tropical development was expected in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days, giving residents and officials a brief window to complete preparations before the season begins.

El Nino as the Key Driver

The primary factor behind the below-normal outlook is the anticipated development and intensification of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the 2026 hurricane season. El Nino refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, a phenomenon that has a well-documented and measurable effect on Atlantic hurricane activity.

The mechanism works through atmospheric dynamics that span ocean basins. Warmer Pacific waters during El Nino episodes increase upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean, meaning that winds at high altitudes blow at significantly different speeds and directions from winds near the ocean surface. Tropical storms and hurricanes rely on a relatively undisturbed atmospheric column to organize and intensify. When strong vertical wind shear is present, the upper portions of a developing storm are sheared away from its lower circulation, disrupting the convective structure that generates a storm's power and in many cases preventing organized systems from developing at all. The expected increase in wind shear that accompanies El Nino is the primary reason NOAA assigns a majority probability to a below-normal season.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures in 2026 are projected to be slightly warmer than normal, a factor that typically supports storm development by providing additional heat energy as fuel. Trade winds, the persistent easterly winds that blow across the tropical Atlantic, are expected to be weaker than average. Both of those conditions, taken in isolation, would normally favor more active hurricane development. The anticipated dominance of El Nino's wind-shear effect is expected to outweigh those supportive factors, resulting in the net suppression of storm activity that drives the below-normal forecast. Forecasters noted, however, that the competing influences create genuine uncertainty in the outlook, which is why the probability assigned to near-normal or above-normal seasons still totals 45 percent.

What Below-Normal Means for Florida

Florida sits in a uniquely exposed position relative to Atlantic hurricane activity. The state has approximately 1,350 miles of coastline, the most of any continental U.S. state, and its geography places it within striking distance of storms developing across a wide swath of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. Florida has absorbed multiple major hurricane strikes in recent seasons, with storms causing tens of billions of dollars in damage, displacing hundreds of thousands of residents, and reshaping entire communities along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic shore.

The NOAA outlook has direct and practical consequences for Florida beyond the obvious question of storm frequency. Property insurance pricing in Florida is influenced in part by seasonal forecasts and the broader actuarial expectations of hurricane risk. The state's insurance market, which has been in significant turmoil for several years due to litigation costs, reinsurance pricing, and the legacy of catastrophic storm seasons, watches seasonal outlooks closely. A below-normal forecast may provide marginal relief to reinsurance pricing discussions that occur in the months before and during the season, though Florida's insurers and regulators have consistently emphasized that individual catastrophic storms, not seasonal totals, drive the loss events that matter most to the market.

Florida's coastal construction calendar is also influenced by seasonal risk expectations. Developers and contractors working on coastal projects in South Florida, the Tampa Bay area, and the Panhandle factor hurricane season timing into their schedules, accelerating work on vulnerable structures before the peak of the season and making contingency plans for work stoppages if threatening storms approach. A below-normal season forecast may reduce the margin of caution some contractors apply, though experienced builders in Florida have learned from hard experience that a single storm can disrupt years of work regardless of what the seasonal outlook suggested.

The travel and tourism industry, one of Florida's largest economic sectors, also pays close attention to hurricane season forecasts. Florida welcomed more than 140 million visitors in recent years, a substantial portion of whom visit during the summer and fall months that overlap with the hurricane season. A below-normal forecast provides some reassurance to travelers planning Florida vacations, though travel and hospitality operators know well that a single storm threatening a major Florida market can cause widespread cancellations regardless of how quiet the rest of the season has been.

The Irreducible Risk: It Only Takes One Storm

Forecasters at NOAA and the National Hurricane Center repeatedly emphasized a central point in their messaging around the 2026 outlook: a below-normal season does not mean a safe season for any individual location, and it certainly does not mean a safe season for Florida specifically. The historical record makes this point with clarity. Some of the most destructive hurricane seasons for Florida in recent decades occurred in years when the overall Atlantic season was below or near normal in terms of storm count.

The probability math underscores the point. NOAA assigns a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, which means there is a 45 percent chance of a near-normal or above-normal season. Those are not negligible odds. Even within a below-normal season, a single Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane making landfall along Florida's densely populated coastline would represent a catastrophe on the scale of the worst storms in the state's recorded history. The forecast speaks to averages across the entire Atlantic basin and the entire six-month season. It says nothing meaningful about the probability of any specific location in Florida being struck.

Track variability adds another layer of complexity. Atlantic storms that develop in favorable environmental conditions can intensify rapidly, and their paths are subject to the influences of steering currents, pressure systems, and atmospheric patterns that are inherently difficult to forecast more than a few days in advance. A storm that forms at the right place in the Caribbean in October, even in a relatively quiet season, can threaten Florida with little warning time for anything beyond the short-range preparation that emergency managers routinely urge residents to maintain year-round.

Florida Emergency Management Urges Early Preparation

The Florida Division of Emergency Management has responded to the NOAA forecast with its consistent annual message: prepare now, regardless of what the seasonal outlook suggests. The Division urges all Floridians to complete hurricane preparedness steps well before June 1, when the season officially opens, rather than waiting for a storm to threaten the state.

Preparation steps recommended by Florida emergency managers include assembling or refreshing hurricane supply kits with at least seven days of food, water, and medications. Residents are encouraged to review their insurance policies, document their personal property with photographs or video, and understand what their policies cover and what they do not. Identifying evacuation zones and routes before a storm is necessary, because evacuation decisions made under threat require knowing in advance which zones are ordered to evacuate and which roads lead to safety.

The Division also emphasizes the importance of understanding individual risk. A resident in an inland county faces a different risk profile from a resident in a beachfront condominium in a Zone A evacuation area. Floridians with special medical needs, those who rely on electricity for medical equipment, and those with limited mobility or transportation require specific preparedness plans that take those factors into account. Emergency managers note that below-normal seasonal forecasts sometimes create a false sense of security that leads residents to defer preparation, which is precisely the outcome officials want to prevent.

• Assemble a hurricane kit with at least seven days of food, water, and prescription medications.
• Review homeowner and flood insurance policies and document personal property.
• Know your evacuation zone and planned route before a storm threatens.
• Sign up for local emergency alerts and monitor National Hurricane Center advisories.
• Prepare a plan for pets, special medical needs, and family members with limited mobility.
• Secure or store outdoor furniture and items that could become projectiles in high winds.

Context from Recent Florida Hurricane Seasons

Florida's recent experience with major hurricanes has reinforced the emergency management community's insistence that seasonal outlooks are poor guides for individual preparedness decisions. The state absorbed significant hurricane impacts in recent seasons that caused destruction measured in the tens of billions of dollars and claimed dozens of lives. Those experiences have also deepened the understanding among Florida residents of how quickly conditions can change and how rapidly an approaching storm can exceed initial intensity forecasts as it crosses warm Gulf or Atlantic waters.

The state has also seen how recovery from even a single major hurricane can stretch over years. Communities still working to rebuild from recent storms are not indifferent to the prospect of another significant impact during the 2026 season, regardless of what the probability statistics say. For those communities, the difference between a below-normal season and a near-normal season is largely academic if one of those storms follows a track that brings it onshore in an already vulnerable area.

The investment in preparedness that Florida has made at the state and local level over the past decade, including improvements in evacuation planning, shelter capacity, public warning systems, and coordination between state and federal emergency management, represents the operational infrastructure that absorbs the difference between a manageable disaster and an uncontrolled catastrophe. That infrastructure works best when residents engage with it proactively, completing their personal preparations before a storm is on the map rather than joining the rush at the moment a watch or warning is issued.

NOAA will update its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook in early August, as is customary, incorporating new data on ocean temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and the actual pace of storm activity in the early weeks of the season. That updated forecast will provide a more refined picture of what the remainder of the season may hold. In the meantime, the message from forecasters and emergency managers alike is consistent: a 55 percent probability of a below-normal season leaves a 45 percent probability that conditions will be at or above average. Florida, with its vast coastline and dense coastal population, is not a state that can afford to treat a below-average forecast as permission to wait.