Florida’s housing market is not monolithic. Naples and Miami Beach quote million-dollar medians while Tallahassee and Pensacola sit comfortably under $300,000. A retiree shopping in Cape Coral and a tech worker relocating to St. Petersburg are buying inside the same state but inside two entirely different price environments. The only way to read where the Florida market is going is to drop below the statewide headline and look at the county-by-county data, year-over-year direction, and the inventory and days-on-market signals that lead price.
This guide pulls the latest Florida Realtors MLS release, Case-Shiller index data for Miami and Tampa, the FHFA House Price Index, and Zillow and Redfin market trackers into a single county map. It is updated monthly when the new Florida Realtors numbers post, and it covers every Florida county that consistently clears 2,000 single-family closings a year.
Statewide overview: where Florida sits in 2026
At the statewide level, Florida is cooling but not contracting. The single-family median is $420,000, up 1.8 percent year-over-year, which is the slowest pace of appreciation since 2019. Inventory has rebuilt to roughly 165,000 active listings, up 18 percent on the year. Days on market has stretched, and the months-of-supply metric is now squarely in the balanced range. Together those numbers describe a market handing some leverage back to buyers without rolling over into broad price declines.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Year-over-year | Trend direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median single-family price | $420,000 | +1.8% | Cooling appreciation |
| Median time on market | 52 days | +18 days | Lengthening |
| Active inventory | 165,000 listings | +18% | Rising fast |
| Months of supply | 4.8 | +1.1 | Balanced market |
| Median condo price | $310,000 | -0.4% | Flat to down |
| Share of cash closings | 31% | -2 pts | Still elevated |
Median home prices by major county
The table below covers the 21 Florida counties that account for roughly 85 percent of statewide single-family closings. Single-family medians come from the Florida Realtors county detail report. Condo medians are listed only where a county clears a meaningful condo closing volume; otherwise the field is marked n/a, which is typical for inland and north Florida counties where the condo stock is thin.
| County (region) | Single-family median | Condo median | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade (Southeast) | $620K | $415K | +3.2% |
| Broward (Southeast) | $580K | $295K | +2.4% |
| Palm Beach (Southeast) | $640K | $325K | +4.1% |
| Monroe (Keys) (Southeast) | $1.08M | n/a | -2.1% |
| Collier (Naples) (Southwest) | $785K | $485K | +1.7% |
| Lee (Fort Myers) (Southwest) | $415K | n/a | +0.5% |
| Hillsborough (Tampa) (Tampa Bay) | $445K | $295K | +2.8% |
| Pinellas (Tampa Bay) | $475K | $325K | +2.1% |
| Pasco (Tampa Bay) | $385K | n/a | +3.5% |
| Orange (Orlando) (Central) | $415K | $285K | +4.2% |
| Seminole (Central) | $445K | n/a | +3.8% |
| Osceola (Central) | $410K | n/a | +5.1% |
| Duval (Jacksonville) (Northeast) | $325K | n/a | +2.3% |
| St. Johns (Northeast) | $560K | n/a | +2.0% |
| Volusia (Daytona) (East Central) | $345K | n/a | +1.5% |
| Brevard (Space Coast) (East Central) | $385K | n/a | +2.6% |
| Sarasota (Southwest) | $510K | n/a | +0.8% |
| Manatee (Southwest) | $475K | n/a | +1.2% |
| Leon (Tallahassee) (Panhandle) | $295K | n/a | +3.5% |
| Escambia (Pensacola) (Panhandle) | $285K | n/a | +2.1% |
| Polk (Lakeland) (Central) | $315K | n/a | +4.4% |
Where Florida prices are rising fastest
Five Florida counties are running materially above the statewide average rate of appreciation. All five sit along the I-4 corridor or in the Palm Beach wealth migration zone, which is the same pattern that has held for three years.
- Osceola County, +5.1%. The Disney and Kissimmee corridor continues to absorb both vacation-home demand and primary-residence buyers priced out of Orange County. New construction in the Poinciana and St. Cloud submarkets has not kept pace with demand.
- Polk County, +4.4%. Lakeland is the structural winner of the I-4 buildout between Tampa and Orlando. The county is now a logistics and manufacturing hub, and the single-family median is climbing faster than household income.
- Orange County, +4.2%. Orlando proper has held in as the metro adds jobs and the theme parks continue to drive hospitality employment. Condo demand near downtown and around UCF stays steady.
- Palm Beach County, +4.1%. Wealth migration from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut into West Palm, Jupiter, and the equestrian belt around Wellington keeps the top end of the market firm. The county’s single-family median has decoupled from the rest of the state.
- Seminole County, +3.8%. Suburban Orlando, anchored by Lake Mary and Sanford, continues to draw buyers who want Orange County jobs without Orange County property taxes or schools.
Where Florida prices are flat or declining
On the other end of the map, five counties are flat or contracting. Four of those five are on the Gulf coast, where the post-Ian rebuild, insurance shock, and the 2021 to 2023 price runup are all working against further appreciation.
- Monroe County (Keys), -2.1%. The Keys are the only Florida market showing year-over-year decline. Property insurance is the binding constraint, and Hurricane Ian recovery costs in the Lower Keys still weigh on resale. Days on market in Marathon and Big Pine has stretched past 90.
- Lee County, +0.5%. Cape Coral and Fort Myers continue to absorb the inventory wave from out-of-state sellers who bought in 2021 and 2022 at peak prices. Listings are well above pre-2020 averages and the median has gone effectively flat.
- Sarasota County, +0.8%. Sarasota saw 35 percent cumulative appreciation between 2020 and 2023. The market is digesting that gain now. Demand is steady, but the spread of asking-to-closing has widened.
- Manatee County, +1.2%. Bradenton and Lakewood Ranch are tracking the Sarasota cooldown. Inventory is rising on new construction releases in the Lakewood Ranch master-planned community.
- Volusia County, +1.5%. Daytona Beach and the Volusia coast are tracking the slowest pace of east-coast appreciation. Inventory of older inland stock is loose. Coastal single-family is firmer than the inland median suggests.
Cost per square foot inside Florida
Median price tells you what a typical home sells for. Price per square foot tells you what the underlying real estate is worth, stripped of how big a typical home happens to be in each market. The spread inside Florida is wider than most out-of-state buyers expect.
| Market | Price per sqft | Relative to FL median | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Beach condos (Miami Beach) | $720 | +207% | Beachfront and oceanview condo stock skews the count |
| Miami Beach (single-family) | $545 | +132% | Limited single-family supply on barrier island |
| Naples (Collier) | $385 | +64% | Luxury single-family and lot premiums |
| Tampa (Hillsborough) | $245 | +4% | Inline with statewide median |
| Orlando (Orange) | $215 | -9% | Newer construction stock keeps psf lower |
| Jacksonville (Duval) | $185 | -21% | Northeast Florida value end |
| Tallahassee (Leon) | $155 | -34% | University and government employment base |
| Florida statewide median | $235 | baseline | Reference line |
Inventory and days on market: reading the leading indicators
Price is a lagging indicator. By the time a county median is up or down 5 percent, the underlying conditions that drove that move have already played out. The signals that actually lead price are inventory levels and days on market.
Days on market measures the time from listing date to under-contract date. Florida’s statewide median is 52 days, up sharply from the 28 to 32 days that defined the 2021 to 2023 seller market. As a rough field rule, under 30 days on market signals a seller market, 30 to 60 days signals a balanced market, and over 90 days signals a buyer market. Markets do not flip overnight. They drift through these ranges as inventory builds.
Florida active inventory is up 18 percent year-over-year, which is the single biggest shift in the 2026 data. Some of that build is genuine: more sellers listing relative to 2024. Some of it is stale: listings that hit the market in late 2025 and have simply not cleared. Either way, the trajectory matters more than the absolute number. Inventory building for six consecutive months is the most reliable Florida signal that prices will flatten and eventually retrace in the affected submarkets.
Florida vs other states: cost per square foot context
Out-of-state buyers consistently underprice Florida because the only mental anchor they carry is the market they are leaving. The cross-state comparison below uses the same Zillow and Redfin price-per-square-foot methodology, weighted to single-family closings.
| Market | Price per sqft | Relative to FL median | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City | $1,250 | +432% | Manhattan and Brooklyn weighted |
| Los Angeles metro | $850 | +262% | Coastal LA and Westside weight |
| Boston metro | $755 | +221% | Inside Route 128 |
| Miami Beach | $545 | +132% | Highest single-family psf inside Florida |
| Atlanta metro | $235 | 0% | Roughly inline with Florida statewide |
| Florida statewide median | $235 | baseline | Single-family closings reference |
What is driving Florida’s housing market in 2026
Five forces are doing most of the work on the Florida market right now. Buyers and sellers who understand which of these forces is loudest in their county tend to make better pricing decisions than the ones who read only the statewide headline.
- Out-of-state migration. Florida ran a net inbound migration of roughly 320,000 people in 2025. The pace has slowed from the 2021 and 2022 peak but remains the highest of any state. The buyers in that flow are concentrated in the Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Palm Beach metros.
- Property insurance as a buyer-side disqualifier. Insurance is no longer a closing-cost line item. A $400,000 home in a coastal county can carry a $5,000 to $7,000 annual premium, which adds $400 to $600 to the monthly carry. That premium is now showing up in mortgage qualification and pushing some buyers from coastal to inland submarkets inside the same county.
- Mortgage rates near 6.3 percent. The 30-year fixed has stayed in a 6.2 to 6.5 percent band through most of 2026. Buyers who held off through 2024 hoping for a retreat to the 5s have re-entered the market at the current rate. Refinance activity is slow but purchase activity is not.
- New construction supply. Lennar, KB Home, Pulte, and DR Horton are actively building in Polk, Pasco, Osceola, Hillsborough, and the Jacksonville exurbs. That supply is keeping a lid on resale prices in those submarkets and is one of the reasons Florida’s inventory build is real and not just stale listings.
- Cash buyers still 30 percent plus. Florida’s cash share of closings is 31 percent, down from 35 percent a year ago but still elevated. Snowbirds, retirees, and investor buyers continue to write cash offers, which insulates the upper end of the market from interest-rate volatility.
How to use this map
County-level medians answer the question of where a Florida market is, not where any specific home should be priced. A waterfront home in Naples and a tract home off Pine Ridge Road are both inside Collier County and both inside the same median. Use the county data as the framing, then narrow into ZIP code and submarket comps before listing or making an offer. The most useful follow-on data for buyers is the per-county months-of-supply figure, which signals leverage faster than the median price does.
For sellers, the leading question in 2026 is not whether to list but how to price into a slower market. Days on market is the figure that punishes a mispriced listing. Florida sellers who price 3 to 5 percent under the most recent comp are generally closing inside the county median days, while sellers pricing at or above peak 2022 comps are sitting on market three to four times the county median.