NOAA Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, But Florida Still at Risk

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on May 22, projecting a below-normal season driven by the anticipated development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. For Florida, the forecast offers cautious optimism rather than a reason to lower guard, as federal meteorologists and emergency management officials were quick to remind the public that history is full of destructive seasons that began with similar outlooks.

What NOAA is Predicting

NOAA's outlook calls for a 55 percent probability of a below-normal season, a 35 percent probability of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. In terms of storm counts, forecasters are projecting between eight and fourteen named storms for the entire Atlantic basin, of which three to six are expected to develop into hurricanes. Among those, one to three are projected to reach major hurricane status, meaning Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

For context, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces about fourteen named storms, with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The projected 2026 numbers fall meaningfully below those historical averages, placing this season among the quieter expected years in recent memory.

NOAA also announced on May 15 that it began issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks roughly two weeks ahead of the official June 1 start of hurricane season. As of the final days of May, no tropical development is expected within the following week across the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America.

The El Nino Factor

The primary driver behind the below-normal forecast is the expected development and intensification of El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the course of the hurricane season. El Nino episodes typically increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, creating an atmospheric environment hostile to the formation and organization of tropical cyclones.

High wind shear essentially tears apart developing tropical systems before they can build the organized deep convection necessary to sustain and intensify a hurricane. Historically, strong El Nino years have produced significantly fewer Atlantic hurricanes compared to neutral or La Nina years.

However, NOAA meteorologists noted that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are running slightly warmer than normal and that trade winds across the basin are expected to be weaker than average. These factors could partially offset the suppressive effects of El Nino, which is why forecasters stopped short of projecting a dramatically quiet season and maintained a meaningful probability range in their counts.

The Warning Behind the Forecast

Despite the below-normal outlook, NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs offered a pointed reminder to residents of coastal states during the announcement: it only takes one storm making landfall at the wrong place and the wrong time to produce a catastrophic season for any community or state. His remarks reflected the statistical reality that some of Florida's most destructive hurricane landfalls occurred during seasons that were rated below-normal or near-normal in aggregate.

Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which devastated South Florida and reshaped the state's insurance market, struck during a season in which only six hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin. The 2004 hurricane season, which sent four storms across Florida in a single season for the first time in recorded history, was classified as an above-normal year, but the 2005 season that followed, which produced the record-setting Wilma and Katrina, has served as a cautionary benchmark ever since.

The point is straightforward: a below-normal forecast reduces the overall probability of impact but does not eliminate risk for any individual coastal community. Florida, with more than 1,300 miles of coastline and low-lying geography across most of the peninsula, remains exposed to tropical impacts regardless of how the basin-wide season ultimately ranks.

What It Means for Florida Preparedness

The Florida Division of Emergency Management has been coordinating pre-season readiness activities across all 67 counties in advance of the June 1 start date. State officials have emphasized that preparedness activities should not be scaled back in response to a below-normal forecast, noting that readiness planning and storm season coincide regardless of what the outlook projects.

Floridians are encouraged to assemble emergency supply kits that include at least seven days of food, water, medications, and critical documents. Households in flood zones or storm-surge-prone areas should review their evacuation zones and ensure they know the routes to designated public shelters. Local county emergency management offices have been posting updated shelter and zone information on their websites ahead of the season.

The state has also been working to improve the speed of post-storm damage reporting and debris removal contracting, two areas that drew criticism in the aftermath of Hurricanes Ian and Idalia. Those lessons have driven changes in pre-positioning of equipment and personnel that officials say will accelerate early-response timelines if a significant storm were to impact the state.

Insurance and the Property Market

The below-normal forecast arrives as Florida's property insurance market has shown meaningful improvement over the past two years following legislative reforms enacted in 2022 and 2023. Citizens Property Insurance Corporation has seen its policy count fall sharply, and more than a dozen private carriers have either re-entered the Florida market or expanded their footprints in the state.

Insurance analysts have cautioned, however, that the stabilization of the market remains fragile and that a major storm making landfall in a high-density area, particularly in Southeast Florida or the Tampa Bay region, could quickly reverse those gains. Reinsurance premiums would spike in the wake of significant insured losses, potentially driving some of the newer market entrants back toward the sidelines.

For homeowners, the practical implication of the below-normal forecast is that Citizens rate reductions scheduled for June 1 remain on track, as no current weather event disrupts the market. The Office of Insurance Regulation approved a statewide average rate decrease of 2.6 percent for Citizens policyholders, with more than 330,000 customers in all 67 counties set to see lower premiums at their next renewal date.

Coordination With National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center, based in Miami at Florida International University's main campus, operates around the clock during the hurricane season issuing advisories on active storms and regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on areas of potential development. The center's staff is composed of meteorologists who specialize in tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting.

This year, the hurricane center is also continuing its public education campaign around the distinction between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning, two designations that residents frequently confuse. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the specified area, typically within 48 hours. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the specified area within 36 hours. Evacuation decisions should generally be made under a watch, not delayed until a warning is issued.

The center has also updated its storm surge guidance tools, providing county-level surge zone mapping that local emergency managers use to issue tiered evacuation orders. Florida uses numbered zones, with Zone A representing the highest-risk areas closest to coastlines and open water.

Seasonal Outlook in Broader Context

The 2026 season outlook was released against the backdrop of two consecutive active Atlantic hurricane seasons in 2024 and 2025, which together brought multiple landfalls across the Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula. The back-to-back active years placed substantial pressure on the state's emergency response infrastructure, insurance markets, and housing recovery programs.

The prospect of a quieter 2026 season has been welcomed by local governments still working through post-storm rebuilding projects and by the Florida Real Estate industry, which has faced headwinds from elevated insurance costs and post-storm market disruptions in affected areas. Lee County, Charlotte County, and Sarasota County are still completing recovery work from Hurricane Ian's catastrophic 2022 impact.

Federal forecasters note that even a below-normal season is capable of producing impactful storms and that Floridians should not allow a favorable outlook to reduce their personal preparedness. The first named storm of the season could form as early as June and track directly toward the Florida coastline regardless of how many storms ultimately form across the entire Atlantic basin.

What is Next

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through November 30. NOAA typically releases a mid-season update in early August that incorporates observed conditions and any adjustments to seasonal storm count projections. Florida emergency management officials and county governments will be monitoring the National Hurricane Center's daily tropical weather outlook throughout the season.

Floridians who have not yet completed their pre-season preparedness should do so before June 1. The Florida Division of Emergency Management recommends that residents use the final days of May to verify emergency supplies, review insurance policies for adequate coverage including flood insurance, and confirm household emergency plans with family members. Preparedness, officials repeatedly emphasize, does not depend on the seasonal forecast.