NOAA Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Hurricane Season as El Nino Takes Hold

NOAA Issues Below-Normal Outlook for 2026 Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season in late May, calling for a below-normal season driven primarily by the anticipated development and intensification of El Nino conditions over the coming months. The forecast calls for 8 to 14 named storms, meaning tropical systems reaching wind speeds of at least 39 miles per hour. Of those, 3 to 6 are projected to strengthen into hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour, and 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or stronger with winds of at least 111 miles per hour.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. NOAA issues its seasonal outlook ahead of the season start to help emergency management officials, coastal communities, the insurance industry, and the public calibrate their preparedness efforts. The below-normal designation reflects probabilities across the forecast range, but NOAA administrators emphasized that even seasons classified as below normal carry real risk for communities in hurricane-prone states, including Florida.

The outlook represents a significant departure from recent years. The 2024 and 2025 seasons both featured above-normal activity, with multiple major hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States. A below-normal forecast provides some statistical relief but comes with important caveats that forecasters were careful to articulate in their public presentation of the seasonal outlook.

El Nino Is the Primary Driver

The central factor behind the below-normal forecast is the expected development of El Nino, the climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino's most significant effect on Atlantic hurricane activity is through its influence on vertical wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction at different altitudes in the atmosphere. High vertical wind shear disrupts the organized rotation that tropical storms and hurricanes depend on to develop and maintain structure. When wind shear is elevated, storms tend to struggle to intensify and may weaken or fall apart before reaching hurricane strength.

NOAA indicated there is a 98 percent chance that El Nino conditions will be present later in the 2026 hurricane season. More significantly, there is an 80 percent probability of moderate-to-strong El Nino developing, which would produce the elevated wind shear effects associated with below-normal hurricane activity across the Atlantic basin. That level of statistical certainty is relatively high for a long-range seasonal climate forecast and gives forecasters considerable confidence in the below-normal designation.

El Nino conditions typically begin to influence the Atlantic during the peak of hurricane season in August and September, the months when warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and a favorable atmospheric environment would otherwise support the most intense tropical development. If El Nino intensifies on schedule during the 2026 season, those critical peak months may be substantially less productive for storm formation than in neutral or La Nina years.

Factors Partially Offsetting El Nino

While El Nino is expected to be the dominant influence on the 2026 season, NOAA forecasters identified two conditions that partially counteract its suppressing effects. First, Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures are running slightly warmer than normal for this time of year. Warmer ocean waters provide more energy to tropical systems, and an unusually warm Atlantic can sustain storm development even when other atmospheric conditions are unfavorable. That warmth reduces, but does not eliminate, the dampening effect that El Nino wind shear imposes on tropical development.

Second, trade winds in the Atlantic are currently weaker than average. The trade winds blow from east to west across the tropical Atlantic and play a role in setting the atmospheric environment in which storms form. Weaker trade winds are associated with conditions that are more conducive to tropical development. Like warm sea surface temperatures, below-average trade wind strength is a factor that could allow some storms to form and intensify even in the presence of elevated wind shear from El Nino.

The net result of these competing factors is a forecast range that, while below normal, is not historically extreme on the low end. There have been seasons in recent decades with fewer named storms, fewer hurricanes, and fewer major hurricanes than the current forecast range suggests for 2026. The offsetting ocean and wind conditions prevent forecasters from calling for a dramatically inactive season, which would only be warranted if El Nino were developing more quickly and the Atlantic ocean heat content were below normal rather than above it.

The Warning That “It Only Takes One”

NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs was direct in cautioning against complacency in response to the below-normal seasonal forecast. Jacobs noted that Category 5 storms, the most powerful designation on the Saffir-Simpson scale, have formed and made landfall during seasons that were below normal by statistical measures. The designation of a season as below normal is a probabilistic statement about the total number and intensity of storms across the entire Atlantic basin over the full six-month season. It says nothing definitive about whether any individual storm will threaten a specific community.

Florida's history offers ample illustration of that point. Below-average or near-normal seasons have included storms that caused catastrophic damage to portions of the state. The track of any given storm is determined by weather patterns that emerge weeks or days before landfall, not by the seasonal forecast issued in May. A family living in a coastal Florida community faces the same risk from a single major hurricane whether it forms during an above-normal season with 20 named storms or a below-normal season with 10.

Emergency management officials in Florida echoed Jacobs' message, noting that the below-normal forecast should be understood as one data point in a broader preparedness picture. State and county emergency management agencies urged residents to review their hurricane plans, assemble supply kits, know their evacuation zones, and follow official guidance if a storm threatens their area, regardless of what the seasonal forecast says about overall activity levels.

NOAA Staffing Cuts Draw Scrutiny

The 2026 hurricane season forecast arrives against a backdrop of concern within the meteorological community about staff reductions at NOAA and its constituent agencies, including the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the National Weather Service. Budget pressures and workforce restructuring at the federal level have resulted in a reduction in the number of experienced forecasters and scientists at agencies whose work is central to hurricane prediction, storm track modeling, and the public warnings that communities depend on to make life-safety decisions.

Forecasters and meteorologists inside and outside NOAA have raised concerns that reduced staffing could affect the agency's capacity to maintain the intensity and quality of forecast products during active storm events, particularly if multiple systems develop simultaneously. The National Hurricane Center issues track and intensity forecasts for all active named systems in the Atlantic, and during busy periods that workload can stretch personnel resources significantly even at full staffing levels.

Congressional representatives from Florida and other Gulf Coast states have asked NOAA leadership for detailed information about how staffing changes will affect forecast operations during the 2026 season. NOAA has maintained that its forecast products will be issued on schedule and will continue to meet the standards that emergency managers and the public rely on, but the staffing questions have added an element of institutional uncertainty to the season that did not exist in prior years.

National Flood Insurance Program Expiration Looms

One policy concern shadowing the 2026 hurricane season is the scheduled expiration of the National Flood Insurance Program on September 30, 2026. The NFIP, administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, provides flood insurance coverage to millions of property owners in participating communities across the country, including hundreds of thousands of policyholders in Florida. The program is essential infrastructure for the real estate market in coastal areas, as private flood insurance remains either unavailable or unaffordable for many property owners.

Congress has repeatedly extended the NFIP through short-term continuing authorizations, allowing the program to continue operating despite ongoing debates over its long-term financial structure and the appropriate premium rates to charge in high-risk areas. The September 30 expiration date falls squarely within the peak of the 2026 hurricane season, meaning that the program could theoretically lapse during a period when major storms are most likely to cause the flood losses that NFIP policyholders depend on the program to cover.

Insurance industry analysts and coastal real estate professionals are watching Congressional action on the NFIP closely. A lapse in the program, even a brief one, could disrupt real estate closings in flood-prone areas that require flood insurance as a condition of federally backed mortgages. Florida's real estate market, already navigating elevated property insurance costs driven by hurricane risk and reinsurance market dynamics, would be particularly sensitive to any disruption in NFIP availability during an active hurricane season event.

Florida's Dual Challenge: Drought and Hurricane Preparedness

Florida enters the 2026 hurricane season in the unusual position of managing an active wildfire emergency driven by extreme drought at the same time it begins preparing for potential tropical storm impacts. The juxtaposition highlights the range of weather-related risks that Florida faces across different parts of the annual calendar and the demands placed on state emergency management resources when multiple hazard types overlap.

The extreme drought documented across more than half the state creates the wildfire risk that has driven the governor's emergency declaration, but it also creates the absorption dynamic that scientists have described as a potential hurricane-season paradox. Soils depleted by months of below-normal rainfall have significant capacity to absorb the rainfall that would accompany a landfalling tropical system, which could reduce some categories of flooding risk if a storm makes landfall before the rainy season has substantially refilled soil moisture reserves.

At the same time, the drought does not diminish the storm surge risk that represents the most dangerous aspect of major hurricanes for Florida's low-lying coastal communities. Storm surge is driven by the wind field of the approaching storm pushing water onto the coastline, a process independent of soil moisture conditions. Coastal communities from the Panhandle to the Keys remain fully exposed to the storm surge threat regardless of inland drought conditions, underscoring the importance of evacuation planning and coastal preparedness activities that are standard elements of Florida's hurricane season readiness.

What Preparedness Officials Are Recommending

Florida Division of Emergency Management officials and county emergency managers are urging residents to complete their preparedness activities well before any storm threat emerges. The standard recommendations include assembling a supply kit with enough water, food, medications, and essential documents for at least seven days, identifying the evacuation zone designation for their home and workplace, understanding the local shelter locations and their pet-friendly options, and ensuring that any special needs family members are registered with county emergency management for assistance if evacuation is required.

The governor's office has also pointed residents toward the state's hurricane preparedness website, which provides zone maps, shelter information, and guidance on protecting property. Floridians in mobile homes and manufactured housing are advised to begin planning for evacuation early, as those structures are vulnerable at wind speeds below the hurricane threshold and local officials may order their evacuation ahead of tropical storm conditions.

With El Nino expected to suppress but not eliminate Atlantic hurricane activity, and with competing factors keeping the forecast range from dropping to historic low levels, 2026 carries the familiar message that characterizes every Atlantic season: there are no off years for preparedness. Any storm that develops and tracks toward Florida's coastline carries the potential for significant impact, and the time to prepare is before a storm is on the map, not after.