Amendment 3 Wins 55% in NBC6 Poll, Still Short of the 60% Florida's Property Tax Cut Needs to Pass

Amendment 3, the constitutional amendment that would sharply expand Florida's homestead property tax exemption, has the support of 55% of voters in a new NBC6/Telemundo 51 Florida Poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, a clear majority that still falls five points short of the 60% the measure needs to pass on Nov. 3. The survey found 26% of voters opposed and 19% undecided, leaving the outcome to a sizable bloc of voters who have not made up their minds less than four weeks before Election Day.

The poll arrives as counties across the state, from Miami-Dade and Broward to Orange and Osceola, are publishing estimates of the revenue they would lose and the services they say could be cut if the amendment passes, and as supporters led by Gov. Ron DeSantis argue that local governments can absorb the hit.

What the NBC6 poll found

Mason-Dixon surveyed 625 randomly selected registered Florida voters by live telephone interviews from Sept. 28 to Oct. 1. All said they were likely to vote in the November general election. The sample included 277 Republicans, 214 Democrats and 134 independents, and the margin of error is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points, NBC6 reported.

Statewide, 55% said they would vote yes. In Southeast Florida, support was weaker: 48% yes, 31% no and 21% undecided. Among supporters, 49% said their main reason was that taxes are too high, 29% cited excessive government spending and 21% pointed to the rising cost of living. Among opponents, 55% cited concern about cuts to local services, including public safety.

The math on the threshold is straightforward. Florida constitutional amendments need at least 60% of the votes cast on the measure. If the election were held with only the voters who have decided, 55 of 81 percentage points would amount to about 68% yes. But that assumes undecided voters split the same way or skip the question. Supporters need to win a large share of the 19% who are still undecided.

How the polls compare

Public polling on Amendment 3 has ranged widely depending on the pollster, the sample and the ballot wording tested. The table below shows recent statewide surveys.

The Sachs Media survey split its sample between the original ballot summary and a revised version. Support was 60% with the old wording and 65% with the new, a difference within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points. Sachs had found 64% support in identical questions in June and early August.

What Amendment 3 would do

The Legislature placed the measure on the ballot as HJR 1F during a June special session, after no property tax proposal passed both chambers in the regular session. It cleared the House 75-26 and the Senate 30-9. If approved, it would take effect Jan. 1, 2027. According to the WJXT voter guide, it would:

• Raise the homestead exemption for all non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with inflation adjustments after that. School taxes are not affected.
• Require the Legislature to set a uniform procedure letting counties and cities raise the exemption up to the full assessed value of a home, and let special districts do the same with voter approval.
• Give people who are not Florida residents on Dec. 31, 2026, the existing exemption when they qualify, with the larger exemption starting in their fifth year, to the extent the U.S. Constitution permits.
• Cut the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property, such as rentals, commercial property and second homes, from 10% to 5%.
• Limit what counties and cities can spend property taxes on to a list that includes public safety, schools, infrastructure, natural resources, debt service, employee retirement and operations.

The non-homestead cap is the piece that reaches seasonal residents, including the Canadian snowbirds who own condos and second homes across the state but cannot claim a homestead exemption. Their tax bills would not get the larger exemption, but annual assessment increases would be capped at 5%.

The original ballot summary was challenged in court as misleading. In August, a Leon County judge ruled that the attorney general had to write a new summary, and Attorney General James Uthmeier rewrote it. Voters will see the revised language.

What it would cost local governments

A state estimate from the Office of Economic and Demographic Research projects local governments would lose close to $5 billion in the first year and nearly $12 billion a year by the fifth year. Florida TaxWatch, using July 2026 Revenue Estimating Conference figures, puts the five-year total at $45.8 billion through 2031-32, with counties bearing about 65% of the loss and cities about 26%. The amendment provides no dedicated state money to replace the lost revenue.

Local estimates reported in recent weeks include the following.

In Osceola County, Commission Chairman Brandon Arrington has said the county could be forced to cut about $8.6 million from emergency medical services, which could mean closing a fire station, and could also affect mosquito spraying. The county has put about $12 million in improvement projects on hold, WFTV reported. Orange County's proposed budget includes 10% cuts across all departments in anticipation of the vote. Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan has warned of effects on road maintenance, libraries and public safety.

Who supports and who opposes it

DeSantis backs the amendment and argues that the fiscal warnings are overstated, pointing to city and county budget surpluses. "We're not gonna spend the way that it's been spending," he said, according to Fox 13. Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds also supports it. Florida Realtors has contributed $10 million to a political committee backing the measure. In Miami-Dade, Supervisor of Elections Alina Garcia joined the county's tax collector and property appraiser in endorsing it, NBC6 reported.

Opponents include the Florida Sheriffs Association, the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police, the Florida Professional Firefighters and the Florida Fire Chiefs Association. Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd warned, "They have no idea what the devastation of Amendment 3 in its current form will be to cities and counties." A committee called Vote No on 3 Florida Inc. has aired an ad calling the measure a "public safety nightmare." Rita Jefferson of the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy told NBC6 there will be "less money to go around" for public services if it passes.

What's next

Vote-by-mail ballots and early voting will put Amendment 3 in front of voters over the coming weeks, ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3. Both sides are expected to spend heavily on advertising aimed at the undecided bloc, with supporters stressing homeowner savings and opponents focusing on police, fire and EMS budgets.

Counties are finishing budgets that assume some or all of the loss, and several have already deferred projects. If the measure passes, the larger exemption would apply to 2027 tax bills, and the Legislature would need to write the procedure for local governments that want to go further. If it fails, the current exemptions stay in place and the property tax debate is likely to return in the 2027 legislative session.