NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but Warns Florida That One Storm Is All It Takes

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook this month, predicting a below-normal season with 8 to 14 named storms expected to form in the Atlantic basin, of which 3 to 6 are forecast to strengthen into hurricanes and 1 to 3 could reach major hurricane status of Category 3 or stronger. The agency assigned a 55 percent probability to a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs officially from June 1 through November 30.

The Science Behind the Forecast

NOAA's prediction of a quieter-than-average season is driven primarily by the anticipated development and intensification of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino events, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, generate increased wind shear over the Atlantic basin. Wind shear, which refers to differences in wind speed and direction at different altitudes of the atmosphere, tends to tear apart developing tropical storms before they can organize and strengthen into hurricanes.

The forecasting model also incorporates Atlantic sea surface temperature data. While the Atlantic Ocean is expected to run slightly warmer than average in 2026, the primary influence of El Nino on atmospheric dynamics is expected to be the dominant factor in suppressing storm development. Warmer Atlantic water would normally favor more and stronger storms, but the increased shear from El Nino is projected to outweigh that influence for most of the season.

NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs, in announcing the forecast, emphasized that the below-average prediction does not mean Floridians should relax their hurricane preparedness. He noted that even during below-average seasons, a single significant storm can cause catastrophic damage if it makes landfall in a densely populated area. Florida's geographic exposure, combined with the record number of people living in coastal and low-lying inland areas, means the potential consequences of even one major hurricane remain severe regardless of seasonal totals.

What the Numbers Mean for Florida

A forecast of 8 to 14 named storms compares with a historical average of approximately 14 named storms per season. The reduced expected total reflects meaningful El Nino suppression, but the inherent variability in seasonal forecasts means the actual number could fall at the high or low end of the range or even outside it. Seasonal forecasts provide a probabilistic framework rather than a precise prediction, and they carry significant uncertainty at the individual storm level.

For Florida, the number of named storms that form in the Atlantic basin matters less than whether any of those storms develop a track that threatens the state. Florida's exposure to tropical weather systems is shaped by its location at the tip of a peninsula surrounded on three sides by water, its proximity to the warm Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, and the prevailing steering patterns that guide storms during different phases of the season. Early-season storms, which tend to develop in the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean, pose a different threat than late-season Atlantic storms that recurve toward the Florida peninsula.

The Florida Division of Emergency Management and county emergency management offices have indicated they are preparing for the season regardless of the seasonal outlook, noting that resources and protocols developed and maintained through annual preparedness cycles are not reduced in response to a below-average forecast. County emergency managers have been conducting public outreach campaigns to ensure residents know their evacuation zones, have emergency supply kits, and have reviewed their insurance coverage before a storm develops.

The Wildfire and Drought Complication

One factor that distinguishes Florida's 2026 hurricane season preparation from past years is the backdrop of severe drought conditions that have gripped the state throughout the spring. More than 2,100 wildfires have burned across Florida since January, scorching over 100,000 acres and leaving the landscape drier than at any point in recent memory.

Drought-stressed vegetation and dry soils can create a paradoxical complication during hurricane season. While hurricanes bring large amounts of rainfall that can theoretically end drought conditions, the first tropical rainfall on extremely dry and fire-scorched land can run off rapidly rather than being absorbed, creating flash flooding and compound hazards. Additionally, trees weakened by drought are more susceptible to wind damage during tropical storms, potentially amplifying the structural damage to communities even from storms that might otherwise be manageable.

Florida's ocean temperatures compound the concern on the other side of the risk spectrum. While NOAA expects El Nino to suppress overall season activity, the sea surface temperatures along Florida's immediate coastline are running significantly warmer than average. Climate researchers have documented that Florida's coastal waters have warmed at approximately twice the rate of global ocean averages, and those locally warm waters could contribute to rapid intensification if a storm develops and tracks over them toward land, compressing warning windows.

Historical Context

Several of Florida's most damaging hurricane seasons occurred during periods when seasonal forecasts predicted below-normal activity or when El Nino conditions were present. Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Miami-Dade County in 1992, struck during a season that was not considered particularly active. NOAA's consistent messaging that seasonal forecasts do not predict where storms will track reflects the hard lessons of history regarding the relationship between seasonal total predictions and individual storm outcomes.

Florida experienced the effects of multiple significant tropical systems in the 2024 and 2025 seasons, which while not producing the kind of Category 5 direct impacts that the most destructive historical storms have brought, still generated costly damage and required substantial emergency management responses. The cumulative insurance and recovery experience of those seasons has reinforced for state and local officials the importance of not allowing optimistic seasonal outlooks to reduce the urgency of preparedness messaging.

What Floridians Should Do Now

The June 1 official start of hurricane season is the traditional prompt for Floridians to review and update their emergency preparedness. Key steps include confirming evacuation zone designations for their address, reviewing homeowners and flood insurance policies for adequacy of coverage and understanding of deductibles, assembling or refreshing emergency supply kits with water, food, medications, and important documents, and establishing a family communication plan that accounts for scenarios where household members might be separated when a storm threatens.

Flood insurance is a particularly important consideration that some Florida homeowners do not address until after a flood event. Standard homeowners insurance policies do not cover flooding, and flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program or private carriers typically has a 30-day waiting period before coverage activates, making it essential to obtain or renew flood coverage well before the threat of a storm is apparent.

What Is Next

NOAA will issue updated hurricane season outlooks in August, which is typically when the agency has more information about how El Nino is developing and can refine its forecast for the peak of the season, which runs from mid-August through mid-October. The National Hurricane Center will continue issuing daily tropical weather outlooks through the season, and Florida's Division of Emergency Management will provide regular updates on state preparedness and any developing tropical weather systems as the season progresses.