NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Driven by El Nino Development

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on May 22, predicting a below-normal season driven primarily by the anticipated development of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The forecast gives a 55% probability of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season, a sharp contrast to the above-normal seasons that dominated the previous several years. For Florida, the outlook offers cautious optimism as the June 1 start of hurricane season approaches, though forecasters and emergency managers have emphasized that a single powerful storm can make any season consequential regardless of the overall activity level.

The 2026 Forecast in Detail

NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 are expected to reach hurricane strength with sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher. Of those, 1 to 3 are forecast to become major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more. These ranges represent below-average activity across all three metrics compared to the Atlantic basin's long-term historical averages of roughly 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes per season.

The forecast was developed by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Research Division, using a combination of dynamical climate models, statistical approaches, and expert meteorological judgment. NOAA issues its pre-season outlook each May and updates it again in early August, once the season is underway and additional atmospheric data is available. The current forecast reflects the team's best assessment of conditions expected to prevail during the peak of the season, which runs from August through October.

The probability breakdown of 55% below-normal, 35% near-normal, and 10% above-normal indicates that while a quiet season is the most likely outcome, there remains a substantial 45% chance the season could be at or above the historical average. NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs underscored this uncertainty in the official release, noting that the agency's track record shows that even below-normal seasons can produce catastrophic storms, and that the probability of any given storm making landfall in Florida is not meaningfully reduced by a quieter overall outlook.

El Nino: The Primary Driver

The below-normal forecast is anchored primarily by the expected development of El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the summer and fall of 2026. El Nino is a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that has well-documented effects on global weather patterns, including a tendency to increase vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic basin during hurricane season. Wind shear, the change in wind speed and direction with altitude, disrupts the organized rotation that hurricanes need to form and intensify, acting as a natural inhibitor of tropical cyclone development.

In addition to increased wind shear, El Nino conditions tend to produce more widespread sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, a phenomenon that further suppresses thunderstorm activity and inhibits the convective processes that power hurricane formation. The combined effect of these mechanisms has historically been associated with below-average Atlantic hurricane seasons during El Nino years, though the statistical relationship is not absolute, and exceptions have occurred.

The anticipated El Nino for 2026 is expected to develop gradually and intensify as the season progresses, meaning its suppressive effects may be most pronounced during the peak of the season in September and October. Forecasters note that the slow development of El Nino introduces some uncertainty into the forecast, since a slower-than-expected intensification would reduce the shear and subsidence effects that underpin the below-normal prediction. Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which are expected to be slightly above normal, represent a competing factor that could support somewhat more activity than the El Nino alone would suggest.

Florida's Historical Context

Florida's relationship with Atlantic hurricanes is unlike any other state's. The peninsula's geography, extending more than 400 miles into the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, creates maximum exposure to storms approaching from multiple directions. The state's long coastline, measured at more than 1,300 miles, means that a storm tracking along any number of paths can produce devastating effects. Historical records show that Florida has been struck by more hurricanes than any other state, and that major storms have made landfall in every decade since records began.

The most recent major hurricane to strike Florida was Hurricane Milton in October 2024, which made landfall near Siesta Key as a Category 3 storm after briefly intensifying to Category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico. Milton caused billions of dollars in damage, inundated large portions of the Tampa Bay area with storm surge, and damaged Tropicana Field, forcing the Tampa Bay Rays to play their 2025 home games elsewhere while repairs were made. The storm served as a vivid reminder that even in years when overall basin activity is limited, Florida's exposure to devastating impacts remains high.

Prior to Milton, Hurricane Ian in September 2022 devastated Lee County and the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 storm, producing one of the costliest hurricane disasters in American history. The consecutive-year impacts of Ian and Milton have reinforced the importance of ongoing hurricane preparedness for all Floridians, regardless of seasonal forecasts. Emergency managers consistently note that the question for Florida residents is not whether a major storm will eventually threaten their community, but whether they are prepared when it does.

What Below-Normal Really Means for Florida

A below-normal Atlantic hurricane season does not mean a storm-free season for Florida. The distribution of storm tracks across the basin means that any given storm can threaten any part of Florida's coastline regardless of the overall number of storms in the basin. In 1992, a well below-normal season produced Hurricane Andrew, one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to strike the United States, which made landfall in South Florida as a Category 5 storm and caused catastrophic damage to Miami-Dade County.

Similarly, a below-normal season offers no guarantee that storms will not intensify rapidly, a phenomenon that has become more common as ocean temperatures remain elevated above historical baselines. Rapid intensification, defined as an increase in sustained winds of 35 miles per hour or more in 24 hours, is particularly dangerous because it can transform a manageable threat into a catastrophic one faster than evacuation and preparation timelines allow. Forecasters have noted that the warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures expected in 2026, even amid El Nino conditions, could support rapid intensification of any storms that do form.

For practical purposes, Florida residents and local governments should treat the below-normal forecast as a reason for relative optimism rather than complacency. Emergency managers across the state have consistently urged Floridians to complete their hurricane preparations before June 1, regardless of the seasonal outlook, since effective preparation requires time and planning that cannot be compressed into the hours or days before a storm threatens.

Preparation Remains Critical

Florida's Division of Emergency Management has issued guidance encouraging all residents to prepare hurricane supply kits, review their household evacuation plans, and ensure their homes are hardened against wind and water damage before the season begins. The agency recommends maintaining at least seven days of non-perishable food and water, having portable battery-powered or hand-crank weather radios, keeping important documents in waterproof containers, and knowing in advance which evacuation zone each household falls in based on local county emergency management maps.

Property insurance review is also an important component of hurricane preparedness. Florida homeowners should confirm that their policies are current, understand what is and is not covered, and pay particular attention to their flood insurance status, since most standard homeowners policies do not cover flooding and a separate National Flood Insurance Program or private flood policy is needed to recover flood losses. The distinction between wind damage and flood damage is often contested after major storms and can significantly affect the recovery process.

The National Hurricane Center's official hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, though storms have formed outside that window in recent years. Floridians can monitor NHC forecasts at nhc.noaa.gov, which provides real-time tracking of all tropical disturbances and storm advisories. County emergency management offices throughout Florida maintain websites with local evacuation zone maps, shelter locations, and preparedness resources tailored to each community's specific geography and risk profile.

What's Next

NOAA will issue an updated hurricane season outlook in early August, once the season is underway and the actual behavior of El Nino conditions and Atlantic sea surface temperatures can be better assessed. If El Nino develops more quickly and strongly than anticipated, the updated forecast could lower the predicted range of named storms; if conditions are more favorable to storm development than currently expected, the forecast could be raised. The August update is typically released shortly before the most active period of the season begins.

For Florida, the coming weeks before June 1 represent the optimal time to complete household and business hurricane preparations. Supplies are more readily available, stores are less crowded, and contractors can be reached more easily before a storm threat brings demand spikes. State and local emergency management agencies offer free preparedness workshops and informational materials, and most county emergency management offices have social media channels that provide real-time updates when tropical systems begin to develop.

Regardless of whether 2026 ultimately proves to be as quiet as NOAA currently forecasts, the fundamental reality of living in Florida is that hurricane risk is a permanent feature of the state's geography. A below-normal outlook for the Atlantic basin as a whole cannot eliminate that risk for any individual community on Florida's coast, and the lessons of the most recent major landfalls argue strongly for maintaining full preparedness through every season, active or quiet.